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Rookie Passes


Doohickie

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I think Housley is giving our two rookies, Mittelstadt and Dahlin, free passes on their performance.  We're winning more than expected, so maybe it gives HCPH greater leeway to do so.  Both players have shown they have a lot to learn; both make mistakes, but both are getting regular shifts.

Tonight, Dahlin got cute with the puck at the blue line, Dadonov swipes the puck, gets a breakaway, Dahlin hooks him and Dadonov scores what turned out to be the winning goal on the ensuing penalty shot.  Sure, the Panthers scored an insurance goal and an empty netter after that, but if they don't score that goal, momentum might not swing and the Sabres win.  That's probably the most egregious example, but we've all seen Dahlin make rookie mistakes and most people on this forum give him a free pass.  More significantly, so does Housley.

Casey Mittelstadt has a lot of talent.  So much so, that Housley has made him the second line center.  But his production has been disappointing.  Just like with Dahlin though, Housley gives him a free pass and he continues as 2C (although with the recent shakeup it's not as clear which line is the second line).  Several people on this forum disagree with Housley's usage though and think we need to bring in another player to be 2C.

In the case of Dahlin, his brain farts have handed grade A scoring chances to the opposition.  For Mitts, failure of the second line to score is the crux of our secondary scoring problem.  But Housley continues them in their roles.

I think I know what Housley is doing in their cases:  He wants to mold them to the jobs he sees them filling next year and thereafter, by playing them in those positions now.  Because of a resurgent Bogo and a monster Risto on defense, and the amazing scoring pace of the Eichel line on offense, supplemented by scoring from the blue line, the Sabres are still winning even with these two kids exposed at the highest level.  I don't think this is an accident; this is a deliberate decision by Housley; it's the way he best thinks he can develop these two.  The consequences are that the Sabres aren't winning as much as they might, but they're winning more than expected and from Housley's perspective it's worth the "investment" over the long haul.

The one casualty of this strategy (if it really is a conscious choice by Housley) is Berglund.  I don't know if he would have been a better 2C than Mitts, but I think HCPH's decision to staple Mitts to the second line is the reason Berglund never got a chance to show what he could do with scoring wingers.  I can almost justify Housley's decision if the alternative would have been playing Mitts on 4C, asking him to play a primarily defensive game.  I think defense at the NHL level is something he already excels at, and the fear Housley had is that if Mittelstadt wasn't challenged to concentrate on scoring, he would settle in as a defensive center and waste a good chunk of his potential.

Back to Dahlin:  I think Housley just accepts that Rasmus will overplay his talent occasionally, but he wants him to learn where those limits are.  Make the mistakes, but learn from them.  I get frustrated because sometimes he doesn't seem to learn the first time or even the tenth time... but then again, I don't know what Housley is telling him to do.

I like to say that last year was an 82 game training camp where winning wasn't stressed at all while Housley looked to develop skills players needed to play his system.  He installed his system more fully this year and it seems to be working, at least if you look at the win column.  But since Dahline and Mitts didn't spend the whole season here last year, they get that 82 game training camp this year.  The rest of the team is focused on winning, but he's focusing Rasmus and Casey on their personal development.

Anyway, that's my impression based on what I've seen this year.  It frustrates me a lot, but I have to keep telling myself I never thought the Sabres would be doing as well as they are so far, so I need to just cut Housley some slack.  And give the rooks a free pass.

 

What do you think?

Edited by Doohickie
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Mitts maybe but Dahlin is legitimately playing better than some team's top pairing defensman. I'm not going to neuter our phenom, I'll take the gaffs

 

And he should be focusing them on their personal development. 1000%

Edited by WildCard
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Mittelstadt isnt making many good plays, but he’s not making a ton of mistakes. Dahlin makes a ton of mistakes but makes even more good plays.

Dahlin gets top four ice because he is one of our four best D. Mittelstadt is 19th in ice time on the Sabres (averaging only 24 seconds a game more than Berglund) because he is one of our least effective players. I don’t see a more effective option available in the roles those two are being asked to play.

Housley has a one-line team near the top of the standings and has developed Reinhart, Eichel and Ristolainen into upper echelon players. He’s trying to develop Mitts and Dahlin (and Tage) without hurting the team and has done more than the majority of this board ever expected.

Phil doesn’t get a free pass. He gets a pass he’s earned.

Edited by dudacek
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Just now, WildCard said:

But how are we excusing him? 

Look at the GDT.  When I point out that his gaff at the blue line resulted in the winning goal, everyone is falling all over themselves to find other causes for the loss.  Yes, it didn't hinge entirely on that one play, but if he just dumps it down into the corner and doesn't get his pocket picked, it's an entirely different game.  No one wants to admit that the play that resulted in the winning goal is one of the prime reasons we lost.  If literally anyone else makes that play, they'd be drawn and quartered by now.

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He doesn’t get a free pass. He gets a pass he’s earned.

Who is "he" in that sentence?  I can't tell from context.

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2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Look at the GDT.  When I point out that his gaff at the blue line resulted in the winning goal, everyone is falling all over themselves to find other causes for the loss.  Yes, it didn't hinge entirely on that one play, but if he just dumps it down into the corner and doesn't get his pocket picked, it's an entirely different game.  No one wants to admit that the play that resulted in the winning goal is one of the prime reasons we lost.  If literally anyone else makes that play, they'd be drawn and quartered by now.

Who is "he" in that sentence?  I can't tell from context.

Phil. Edited for clarity.

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I guess I'm saying that if my theory is correct, and Phil's goal is to develop the two rookies on the team, we need to cut Mitts a break and realize that he's stapled to the 2C position and just accept it, in much the same way we accept that Dahlin is talented but makes numerous mistakes every game.  I'm not sure why people are upset about how Phil is using one player while accepting the way he's using the other.  I think in both cases, the usage in analogous.

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10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The "passes" I'm talking about isn't Phil getting a free pass from the fans; it's Dahlin and Mitts getting free passes from Phil. 

I know, but you are also not giving Phil a pass for the pass he is giving the kids. 

I think the pressure is mounting on Botterill to get Sheary and Thompson and Okposo some help. There is some legitimate talent on the wing withering away with Casey and Vlad.

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Dahlin’s play has been nothing short of excellent.  Not only for a rookie but overall.   

Phil is playing him So much partly because McCabe and others are out.  Still Dahlin’s play has been solid, yes a few mistakes are made but overall excellent.  Possible Calder Trophy. 

 

Mitts is playing 2C because he is the best we have.  Berglund and Sobotka did not cut it.   2C is a #1 problem  on this team right now. Don’t blame Mitts, if you must assign blame look at Boterill   

 

Buffalo is overachieving so far.  We are not as good as our record.  We lack scoring balance and we lack physical grit.  You saw that tonight and it’s only going to get harder as the season progresses.   That said we look to be a full year ahead of the rebuild and have a very good chance of making the playoffs although I doubt we can sustain the pace we set thus far.  

 

Dahlin and Mitts are learning.  They need experience and more physical strength. One is 18 and the other just reached 20.   Phil is playing his best players, as he should be.  The effort is there, including mistakes.  

Edited by Pimlach
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4 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Dahlin’s play has been nothing short of excellent.  Not only for a rookie but overall.   

Phil is playing him So much partly because McCabe and others are out.  Still Dahlin’s play has been solid, yes a few mistakes are made but overall excellent.  Possible Calder Trophy. 

 

Mitts is playing 2C because he is the best we have.  Berglund and Sobotka did not cut it.   2C is a #1 problem  on this team right now. Don’t blame Mitts, if you must assign blame look at Boterill   

 

Buffalo is overachieving so far.  We are not as good as our record.  We lack scoring balance and we lack physical grit.  You saw that tonight and it’s only going to get harder as the season progresses.   That said we look to be a full year ahead of the rebuild and have a very good chance of making the playoffs although I doubt we can sustain the pace we set thus far.  

 

Dahlin and Mitts are learning.  They need experience and more physical strength. On is 18 and the other just reach 20.   Phil is playing his best players, as he should be. 

Yes, 2C is a major issue.  However, I don't want JBOT to mortgage the future for a 2C at this stage... he could, but he won't and he shouldn't.

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I think there’s a difference between a free pass and recognizing the performance volatility seen in players you believe have an upward trajectory.  I let my younger teammates struggle at work.  I reassign the experienced who do the same thing.

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7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I know, but you are also not giving Phil a pass for the pass he is giving the kids. 

I think the pressure is mounting on Botterill to get Sheary and Thompson and Okposo some help. There is some legitimate talent on the wing withering away with Casey and Vlad.

And he's not giving you a pass for giving Phil a pass for giving the kids a pass.

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3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Yes, 2C is a major issue.  However, I don't want JBOT to mortgage the future for a 2C at this stage... he could, but he won't and he shouldn't.

Agree. No mortgaging the future at this point.  

 

 Our 2 and 3 line are equally ineffective.  

Top 3 = 9, 53, 23

Top 6 = Add 37, 21, 43

Top 6 performers on ice: 9,53,23, 22, 28, 71

dont know why 37,21 ad 43 don’t gell but they don’t? 

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8 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Look at the GDT.  When I point out that his gaff at the blue line resulted in the winning goal, everyone is falling all over themselves to find other causes for the loss.  Yes, it didn't hinge entirely on that one play, but if he just dumps it down into the corner and doesn't get his pocket picked, it's an entirely different game.  No one wants to admit that the play that resulted in the winning goal is one of the prime reasons we lost.  If literally anyone else makes that play, they'd be drawn and quartered by now.

 

I don't think that's entirely fair.  It's not like he was Mike Weber vs. Arizona out there.  The screw-up for the penalty shot was horrendous, I don't think anybody would argue with that.  It did ultimately swing the game, but that's down to the response of the entire team.  We've seen them do much better in similar situations a few times already this season.  

Had, say, Tennyson done it you're correct that the response would have been angrier (and probably also misdirected because it's not really his fault he's way over his head and playing at a level he's not suited for when with the big club ), but Tennyson brings none of the good that comes along with the growing pains of young Rasmus.  IMO.  

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8 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Look at the GDT.  When I point out that his gaff at the blue line resulted in the winning goal, everyone is falling all over themselves to find other causes for the loss.  Yes, it didn't hinge entirely on that one play, but if he just dumps it down into the corner and doesn't get his pocket picked, it's an entirely different game.  No one wants to admit that the play that resulted in the winning goal is one of the prime reasons we lost.  If literally anyone else makes that play, they'd be drawn and quartered by now.

Who is "he" in that sentence?  I can't tell from context.

It was a trash play by Dahlin. It obvious contributed to the loss. That said, I don't honestly care that an 18 yr old defender had a brain fart. I'll be curious to see if he makes it again. 

You show me another 18 year old defender even attempting that play and I will agree with this. The reason he isn't drawn and quartered is because he's not a 2 or 3 year player with a fully developed game. He's 18 and if you want him to make those wow plays like some of his cuts and passes for goals you have to allow for him to do dumb things like last night. It was a dumb play by a kid. If I see it again, I might get mad but out of all the times he has done his blueline stickhandling, there are 10 times more where he keeps the puck in and makes a good play. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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38 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Agree. No mortgaging the future at this point.  

 

 Our 2 and 3 line are equally ineffective.  

Top 3 = 9, 53, 23

Top 6 = Add 37, 21, 43

Top 6 performers on ice: 9,53,23, 22, 28, 71

dont know why 37,21 ad 43 don’t gell but they don’t? 

Because 37 is a rookie and he hasn't caught up to the NHL speed quite yet. He has moments. 21 is not fast enough period and his skillset is more of a complimentary winger so thats a problem. 43 is a garbage collector with some stick skills. There isn't space because the other two aren't creating it for him and there aren't rebounds because the line sucks at getting shots off. 

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9 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think Housley is giving our two rookies, Mittelstadt and Dahlin, free passes on their performance.  We're winning more than expected, so maybe it gives HCPH greater leeway to do so.  Both players have shown they have a lot to learn; both make mistakes, but both are getting regular shifts.

Tonight, Dahlin got cute with the puck at the blue line, Dadonov swipes the puck, gets a breakaway, Dahlin hooks him and Dadonov scores what turned out to be the winning goal on the ensuing penalty shot.  Sure, the Panthers scored an insurance goal and an empty netter after that, but if they don't score that goal, momentum might not swing and the Sabres win.  That's probably the most egregious example, but we've all seen Dahlin make rookie mistakes and most people on this forum give him a free pass.  More significantly, so does Housley.

Casey Mittelstadt has a lot of talent.  So much so, that Housley has made him the second line center.  But his production has been disappointing.  Just like with Dahlin though, Housley gives him a free pass and he continues as 2C (although with the recent shakeup it's not as clear which line is the second line).  Several people on this forum disagree with Housley's usage though and think we need to bring in another player to be 2C.

In the case of Dahlin, his brain farts have handed grade A scoring chances to the opposition.  For Mitts, failure of the second line to score is the crux of our secondary scoring problem.  But Housley continues them in their roles.

I think I know what Housley is doing in their cases:  He wants to mold them to the jobs he sees them filling next year and thereafter, by playing them in those positions now.  Because of a resurgent Bogo and a monster Risto on defense, and the amazing scoring pace of the Eichel line on offense, supplemented by scoring from the blue line, the Sabres are still winning even with these two kids exposed at the highest level.  I don't think this is an accident; this is a deliberate decision by Housley; it's the way he best thinks he can develop these two.  The consequences are that the Sabres aren't winning as much as they might, but they're winning more than expected and from Housley's perspective it's worth the "investment" over the long haul.

The one casualty of this strategy (if it really is a conscious choice by Housley) is Berglund.  I don't know if he would have been a better 2C than Mitts, but I think HCPH's decision to staple Mitts to the second line is the reason Berglund never got a chance to show what he could do with scoring wingers.  I can almost justify Housley's decision if the alternative would have been playing Mitts on 4C, asking him to play a primarily defensive game.  I think defense at the NHL level is something he already excels at, and the fear Housley had is that if Mittelstadt wasn't challenged to concentrate on scoring, he would settle in as a defensive center and waste a good chunk of his potential.

Back to Dahlin:  I think Housley just accepts that Rasmus will overplay his talent occasionally, but he wants him to learn where those limits are.  Make the mistakes, but learn from them.  I get frustrated because sometimes he doesn't seem to learn the first time or even the tenth time... but then again, I don't know what Housley is telling him to do.

I like to say that last year was an 82 game training camp where winning wasn't stressed at all while Housley looked to develop skills players needed to play his system.  He installed his system more fully this year and it seems to be working, at least if you look at the win column.  But since Dahline and Mitts didn't spend the whole season here last year, they get that 82 game training camp this year.  The rest of the team is focused on winning, but he's focusing Rasmus and Casey on their personal development.

Anyway, that's my impression based on what I've seen this year.  It frustrates me a lot, but I have to keep telling myself I never thought the Sabres would be doing as well as they are so far, so I need to just cut Housley some slack.  And give the rooks a free pass.

 

What do you think?

1st bolded.....WOW, you are treading dangerous waters here. I got a lot of reaming out when I said Berglund wasn't given a chance with some good wingers.

2nd bolded...the recent problem with Dahlin IMO is that most of the year his gaffs have been covered nicely by his being able to recover from them. In recent games he hasn't been recovering as well and hence the plays you are seeing that stand out more as detrimental to the outcome of the game. Also, he gas been racking up points lately which others are using for an excuse, as you put it. As proven by any thread on these boards, people see things differently. One see's the Gaffs a player makes and it's highlited into their brain. Another see's the occassional great play by a player and highlites that into their brain. I agree with most that Dahlin's gaffs don't out-weight his WOW and being as young as he is should get that "pass".

Mitts, I think doesn't deserve the "pass" as much and would expect a little more to this point from him. I like that he's not a liability on the ice, but I don't think he's shown enough WOW for #8 overall and someone whom seemingly was counted on enough to get rid of O'Reilly. Part of the problem is likely not his fault as some of the slack from that trade was to be handled by the return of that trade. That hasn't panned out well at all yet. Tage does look promising and we haven't seen the draft picks yet, but the rest has been abysmal foe our middle six. 

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Leading up to the draft WGR had just about everyone who ever coached or watched  Dahlin in Sweden on as a guest leading up to the draft and they all pretty much said the same thing. Rasmus is so successful because his coaches allowed him the freedom to play his game and make mistakes without the fear of being benched for them. Housley and the staff are allowing the same here. 

Mittlestadt played one minute less than Larsson and one minute more than Sobotka during 5 v 5 play last night. As has been mentioned they really do not have a 2C right now. 

As Liger mentioned Casey needs an upgrade at wingers, a similar situation that Jack found  himself in until this year. 

Botterill has a plan and Is going to follow it despite their position in the standings.  I believe this plan includes allowing Dahlin to make mistakes and grow as a Top 4 D. In addition his moves for the second half of the year probably will be calling up players from Rochester. 

I expect him to be active around the draft though 

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22 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Leading up to the draft WGR had just about everyone who ever coached or watched  Dahlin in Sweden on as a guest leading up to the draft and they all pretty much said the same thing. Rasmus is so successful because his coaches allowed him the freedom to play his game and make mistakes without the fear of being benched for them. Housley and the staff are allowing the same here. 

Mittlestadt played one minute less than Larsson and one minute more than Sobotka during 5 v 5 play last night. As has been mentioned they really do not have a 2C right now. 

As Liger mentioned Casey needs an upgrade at wingers, a similar situation that Jack found  himself in until this year. 

Botterill has a plan and Is going to follow it despite their position in the standings.  I believe this plan includes allowing Dahlin to make mistakes and grow as a Top 4 D. In addition his moves for the second half of the year probably will be calling up players from Rochester. 

I expect him to be active around the draft though 

I would be stunned to find out Botterill doesn't have a plan and isn't willing to adjust his plan accordingly. You are 100% right. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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Dahlin's issues are nothing that having McCabe and 1 other D man back frominjury won't cure.  He's not quite ready for 24ish minutes per game and his gaffes are seemingly more glaring because he and Bogosian are getting more ice time against tougher opponents & he is trying to play more of his fancy game.  There'll always be growing pains with a young D-man; they usually come in their 2nd season as they're asked to do more and expand from their simple "comfort zone" game into a full NHLer.  It's kind of a good thing that Dahlin is getting to that expanded role at 18 without so much as 40 NHL games under his belt.

As for Mittelstadt, letting him center a 3rd line that faces the opposing team's weaker scoring line or 4th line would do him a world of good.  Even if that puts him theoretically with lesser wingers (theoretically, because which are the stronger & which are the weaker of the Sabres middle 6 wingers?  They each have a mix of strengths & flaws which is why they're middle 6), that should open some space for him (though he seems to prefer to be in that phone booth) or, if not space, time, which will allow him to work on those fancy moves that force the puck towards the net through the middle that even Eichel seldomly tries.

It also would allow him to continue to develop his defensive game against weaker opposition as well.

It's kind of a Hail Mary, but IF the 1 game experiment of CJ Smith at center could bear the fruit of 40 games worth of servicable 2C play for the Sabres; they could find themselves with a great 1st line, a very good 4th line, & a good 3rd line, with a 2nd line that isn't quite there but is good enough that opponents have to treat it as 1 allowing the 3rd line to be treated as a 3rd.  Doubt it'll work out that way, but would be cool if it did.

Edited by Taro T
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