matter2003 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 (edited) Apparently its fairly accurate as its won some competitions with its algorithm...definitely promising for the Sabres chances... Has us finishing below TB and Toronto...45 wins on the year... Boston and Montreal are the 2 wildcards in the Eastern Conference... https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi Edited December 17, 2018 by matter2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 I'm not a superstitious guy at all, but why is this here? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 Knocking Toronto out of the playoffs would be so sweet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 4.8% of the time (1000 iterations) BUF wins the Cup... that's 48 times out of 1000... maybe we live in one of those 48 universes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 This is great. But just watch the games and all will be revealed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, pi2000 said: 4.8% of the time (1000 iterations) BUF wins the Cup... that's 48 times out of 1000... maybe we live in one of those 48 universes? Those odds don't even seem that bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, darksabre said: Those odds don't even seem that bad. Dr Strange saw only one positive outcome in 14,000,605 scenarios in Infinity War. The Sabres are totally winning the Cup this year 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Doohickie said: This is great. But just watch the games and all will be revealed. Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, PASabreFan said: Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes. Why?! What else are we supposed to do until the season ends? Just not think about it all? It why we're here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, PASabreFan said: Seriously. It's junk math anyway. It's like on election night. Why analyze the exit polls and call states early? Just count the votes. States aren't called based on exit polls, FWIW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 Playing only .500 points percentage hockey over the remaining 48 games gets them to 93 points. If they win half of their games, they'll easily make the playoffs by way of loser points. It's scary, but this team SHOULD make the playoffs. It's gotta be the goal at this point, now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthEbriate Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 hours ago, darksabre said: Those odds don't even seem that bad. These odds are better than surviving a direct assault on an Imperial Star Destroyer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said: States aren't called based on exit polls, FWIW. What are they called on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, WildCard said: What are they called on? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 45 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said: These odds are better than surviving a direct assault on an Imperial Star Destroyer. But we might take a few of them with us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 The guy on the Athletic now has us at 96.8 pts and the 10th best record in the NHL. He gives us an 80% chance of the playoffs, 255 of getting to the 2nd rd, 8% to the 3rd, 3% to the Finals and a 1% chance of winning the Cup. His model clearly favors teams that were playoff teams a year ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said: The guy on the Athletic now has us at 96.8 pts and the 10th best record in the NHL. He gives us an 80% chance of the playoffs, 255 of getting to the 2nd rd, 8% to the 3rd, 3% to the Finals and a 1% chance of winning the Cup. His model clearly favors teams that were playoff teams a year ago. So he's predicting a 1.08 points per game pace over the remaining 48 games, after posting a 1.32 per game pace over the first 34. We had a 1.07 per game pace even before the streak, so he's basically discounting any progress made during the streak and since as an isolated incident and projecting a return to a pace very similar to the one before said streak. Meh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 hours ago, Thorny said: So he's predicting a 1.08 points per game pace over the remaining 48 games, after posting a 1.32 per game pace over the first 34. We had a 1.07 per game pace even before the streak, so he's basically discounting any progress made during the streak and since as an isolated incident and projecting a return to a pace very similar to the one before said streak. Meh. He maybe predicting that the games will tighten up as playoff desperation builds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Money Puck has their chances at 69% Which is nice. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html SportsClub Stats at 91.7 They need to keep getting points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, Brawndo said: http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Money Puck has their chances at 69% Nice http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html SportsClub Stats at 91.7 They just need to keep getting points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 11 hours ago, WildCard said: What are they called on? Each of the major media outlets will have a little different methodology, of which exit polls are but one relatively small part. The bulk of the models rely on a sample of precinct and county votes, including early voting and absentee ballots. Yes, that's right, election night "calls" rely on actual votes that have been cast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said: Each of the major media outlets will have a little different methodology, of which exit polls are but one relatively small part. The bulk of the models rely on a sample of precinct and county votes, including early voting and absentee ballots. Yes, that's right, election night "calls" rely on actual votes that have been cast. And the calls that come the moment the polls close? When Alabama is colored red at that instant, what's it based on? Not actual votes, since none have been reported. It's either based on "duh, Alabama" or "duh, Alabama plus some exit polls that confirm Alabama is going the way it always does." As far as I know, no early voting results are announced before the polls close. They do reveal the party identity of early votes. I don't even think that should be allowed. Yup, it's quite a democracy we live in. Let's count the ways the system is poisoned. Paging Jimmy Carter... Edited December 18, 2018 by PASabreFan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 13 hours ago, WildCard said: What are they called on? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/nbc-news-decision-desk-how-we-call-midterm-races-election-n930806 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 hours ago, PASabreFan said: And the calls that come the moment the polls close? When Alabama is colored red at that instant, what's it based on? Not actual votes, since none have been reported. It's either based on "duh, Alabama" or "duh, Alabama plus some exit polls that confirm Alabama is going the way it always does." As far as I know, no early voting results are announced before the polls close. They do reveal the party identity of early votes. I don't even think that should be allowed. Yup, it's quite a democracy we live in. Let's count the ways the system is poisoned. Paging Jimmy Carter... Well, yea. I'm just not sure what the problem with that is. Are you taking issue with how a state like Alabama is called, or the fact it can be so easily called? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustache of God Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 8 hours ago, Brawndo said: http://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Money Puck has their chances at 69% Which is nice. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html SportsClub Stats at 91.7 They need to keep getting points Niiiiiice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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