State of the Sabres

[Taro T]

38 minutes ago, MattPie said:

That breaks up the streak. I'm not opposed to that view, but you can also look at it as:

1 thru 15: 80-something pace

10 wins

1-3-2

These last five games make me think games 1-15 were the "real" team. I hope I'm wrong.

Broke the games up the way you'd suggested they be broken up.

This team isn't a Stanley Cup contender.  But, especially if they stay relatively healthy (& right now, on D, they are not), are are a playoff team.  Even as they're presently constructed missing 4 of the top 9 D, they are playoff contenders in a worst case.

And the belief that this team will still be an 80ish point team neglects any growth the youth will experience in-season.  The team overall should play better after the calendar flips than they've been playing.  

Not sure why you'd only look at the games that didn't go their way when evaluating them while ignoring the ones that did go their way.  Flip the results of the Wild & FLA games, and the record is still 18-9-4 but the longest W streak is 5 and (pretty sure) the longest L streak is 3 games.  Fairly standard for a young team that's starting to learn how to win.

And I prefer to look at the 6 wins that have come when trailing after 2 as being more representative of who they are than that (awful) loss in the 2nd Phlyers game.  Which really are they?  We'll find out soon enough.

[dudacek]

44 minutes ago, inkman said:

The metrics mave us somewhere between the 12th and 17th best team in the league. I think it's pretty accurate. Everyone got all full of themselves during the streak even though the stats never suggested they were anything other than an above average team.

The streak was fun, Sabres fans needed it. Unfortunately, everyone thought that was the new Sabres without understanding what they were witnessing. Hot goalies, timely scoring, puck luck and some mediocre competition. Back to reality. 

Mostly agree, except I don’t think there is a regular poster on this board who thought the Sabres were as good as that streak; no one thought they’d be hanging with TO and TB. 

[inkman]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Mostly agree, except I don’t think there is a regular poster on this board who thought the Sabres were as good as that streak; no one thought they’d be hanging with TO and TB. 

Agreed. It was fringe posters and fans who aren't psychotic enough to spend hours posting on a fan message board every day. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

As to the streak vs the "Real Sabres,"  I think the healthy Sabres are in the top 10 in the NHL.  The streak really began with the 9-2 drubbing of the Sens Nov 3.  They lost the next night 3-1 to the Rags, but only because of King Henrik.  The Sabres dominated that game.  After that they won 10 in a row. 

The difference since then has been injuries.  Scandella went down after the 8th win.  Sheary went out after the 9th straight win.  McCabe went down in the 1st period of the 5-4 loss to TB to end the streak.  The Sabres are 1-3-2 without both McCabe and Scandella in the lineup.  Nelson and Hutton also found the injury list during the 5 game losing streak.  

The only upside of the losing streak was the play of Pilut and that Reinhart and Eichel started to find the back of the net. Eichel has 5 goals in his last 3 games and Samson has 5 goals and 4 assists in his last 6 games.

Ultimately I don't think the Sabres are as mediocre as they played during the losing streak or as good as they looked at points during the winning streak, but they are good team.  Right now I have them 12th on my power rankings, but if Scandella gets back and plays as he can coupled with Pilut staying, I think we'll be back in the top 10.

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, Taro T said:

Yes, Pominville hasn't registered a point since getting taken off Eichel's line for the 2nd time, but in that 2nd 3 games stint where he started on Jack's line he only had 1 assist & was WAAAY behind Jack & Skinner on entries.  People should focus on how the line looked with THAT Jason on the line, rather than how it looked with "fresh legs" Jason performing the role of crease tap in / Eichel whisperer.

The Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart line is pretty much scoring 2 gpg.  The D are almost at 0.5 gpg.  That says, the other 3 lines COMBINED just have to find between them a SINGLE gpg to get to 3.5 gpg which should win more than they lose.  I'd rather keep JJS together and hope with additional chemistry they can get to 2.5 gpg, than go back to the JJJ line hoping it can get 1.5 gpg and expecting Reinhart alone to boost one of the other lines by 0.5 gpg.

Keep the Girgensons-Larsson-Berglund line together as much as possible lowering the other team's top line's output and getting 0.2 gpg from them.

Housley only needs to find some combination of the other 8 skaters for 6 slots that can get 0.8 gpg.  Ideally, Botterill could help him with that by finding a 2C.

And, absolutely, McCabe is a huge loss (probably the only 2 losses that would hurt more are Eichel & Hutton.  IMHO, his loss is bigger than Ristolainen's would be by a smidge).  But we do know now that the team has 6 D that can play 2nd pairing roles (evenif they aren't all there/playing to that level yet) & 2 guys that can play 3rd pairing roles.  The Sabres have 4 of their top 9 D (2, 4/5, 7/8, & 9) out and are still playing in 1 goal games.  

Good post. But honestly think Skinner would represent a bigger loss than McCabe. We need someone to cash all of Eichel's feeds.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, MattPie said:

That's optimistic until proven otherwise. The Sabres were not playing at that pace before the winning streak, it remains to be seen if they'll be suddenly better now. Actually, if they'd played 12 points per 10 games all season, they'd be in a playoff spot regardless.

 

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Broke the games up the way you'd suggested they be broken up.

This team isn't a Stanley Cup contender.  But, especially if they stay relatively healthy (& right now, on D, they are not), are are a playoff team.  Even as they're presently constructed missing 4 of the top 9 D, they are playoff contenders in a worst case.

And the belief that this team will still be an 80ish point team neglects any growth the youth will experience in-season.  The team overall should play better after the calendar flips than they've been playing.  

Not sure why you'd only look at the games that didn't go their way when evaluating them while ignoring the ones that did go their way.  Flip the results of the Wild & FLA games, and the record is still 18-9-4 but the longest W streak is 5 and (pretty sure) the longest L streak is 3 games.  Fairly standard for a young team that's starting to learn how to win.

And I prefer to look at the 6 wins that have come when trailing after 2 as being more representative of who they are than that (awful) loss in the 2nd Phlyers game.  Which really are they?  We'll find out soon enough.

Why even break up the games at this point? 31 games is a decent sample size, especially relative to the duration of a season. I mean we are nearing 40% of the season in the books, here. That 12 in 10 (1.2 per game) pace over the course of 82 seems to be quite achievable considering we are sitting at over 1.29 per game through 31.

[Taro T]

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Good post. But honestly think Skinner would represent a bigger loss than McCabe. We need someone to cash all of Eichel's feeds.

He might be.  I didn't put him there because I (perhaps mistakenly) believe that Eichel & Sheary with Reinhart could end up getting nearly what Skinner & those 2 get.  He's proven  before that his production can be elevated by an elite C.  If it was just for 10 games or less & McCabe were healthy, I believe the Sabres could limp by better than they could should those injuries be reversed (as they currently are).

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

Why even break up the games ist this point? 31 games is a decent sample size, especially relative to the duration of a season. I mean we are nearing 40% of the season in the books, here. That 12 in 10 (1.2 per game) pace over the course of 82 seems to be quite achievable considering we are sitting at over 1.29 per game through 31.

Why?  I've always broken them up into 10 game segments because that's how the best coach of all time (Bowman) broke them up.  Win 6 of every 10 and you make the playoffs.  Easy peasy.

And fully agree, that pace should be maintainable when all's said & done the rest of the way unless they have a serious bout with the injury bug.

[TheAud]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As to the streak vs the "Real Sabres,"  I think the healthy Sabres are in the top 10 in the NHL. 

Great analysis, thanks for posting. 

As to this comment...I am pretty sure there are at least 15 teams in the top 10 in the NHL when healthy. Of course a team is rarely 'healthy' for very long over 82 games, hence many teams saying they'd be 10 but for injuries. 

I don't have any data to back it up but my feel for the Sabres injury level was somewhere about average for the year with a beyond average dose in recent  games but relatively good health early. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

42 minutes ago, Sakman said:

Great analysis, thanks for posting. 

As to this comment...I am pretty sure there are at least 15 teams in the top 10 in the NHL when healthy. Of course a team is rarely 'healthy' for very long over 82 games, hence many teams saying they'd be 10 but for injuries. 

I don't have any data to back it up but my feel for the Sabres injury level was somewhere about average for the year with a beyond average dose in recent  games but relatively good health early. 

I don't read very goodly, but what does this mean?  How can you have 15 anythings in  the top 10 of anything?

(insert winkie - winkie thingie here)

[Samson's Flow]

16 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

We'd all LIKE more secondary scoring, but to be honest, the Sabres aren't that bad in that area.  

What do you consider Secondary scoring?  If you look at the league and take away the top 4 goal scorers on each team (I figured 4 because the Sabres  first lineis  basically is Eichel, Skinner, Pomminstein, and Reinhart....all spending time on the first line and their top 4 goal scorers). Take away those 4 players and how many goals does the rest of the team have so far this season? 47 goals total.

 

How many teams in the league now have more than 50 goals from their non-top-4?  Tampa, Ottawa, Detroit, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville, Washington, and Colorado.  8 teams total.

How many teams have less than 45 from their non-top-4?  Boston, Edmonton, Colorado, Carolina, St. Louis, L.A. and Chicago.  7 teams total

How many teams have 45-50 from their non-top-4?  Everyone else. 16 teams including the Sabres.

 

In terms of 'secondary scoring' The Sabres are pretty much right in the middle. 

By that definition I am not surprised by that figure. I suspect that much of our 'secondary scoring' by that definition is disproportionately from our defense, making our remaining forwards far below league average. Our defense has been a bright spot, and that should be a differentiator but all that benefit is killed by our bottom 9 forward lines. 

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

By that definition I am not surprised by that figure. I suspect that much of our 'secondary scoring' by that definition is disproportionately from our defense, making our remaining forwards far below league average. Our defense has been a bright spot, and that should be a differentiator but all that benefit is killed by our bottom 9 forward lines. 

Not sure where they rank now, but as of sometime last week the Sabres D was 9th  in leaguewide scoring.  

[Samson's Flow]

13 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Not sure where they rank now, but as of sometime last week the Sabres D was 9th  in leaguewide scoring.  

Thanks Taro! Top 10 defense scoring surely means bottom 10 scoring from the remaining forwards. This is the area where a slight improvement at the deadline could really make a big difference in the team performance IMO.

[TheAud]

2 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I don't read very goodly, but what does this mean?  How can you have 15 anythings in  the top 10 of anything?

(insert winkie - winkie thingie here)

My point is no team is ever totally healthy so many teams can say “if only we were healthy we’d be top 10”.  It’s a big ‘what if’

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:

By that definition I am not surprised by that figure. I suspect that much of our 'secondary scoring' by that definition is disproportionately from our defense, making our remaining forwards far below league average. Our defense has been a bright spot, and that should be a differentiator but all that benefit is killed by our bottom 9 forward lines. 

Not too much of a difference. I didn't take the time to 'rank' the sabres in this aspect, but they are still close to middle-of-the-pack.

If you take out the top 4 goal scoring forwards and take out Defensemen scoring and use that as your definition of secondary scoring...the Sabres have 30 goals for the season.

The NHL average is 34, so they are only 4 goals behind.  Vegas has 40, Nashville has 43, Tampa has 54, Toronto has 41, and Washington has 43 on the high side of things.  A lot Worse than the Sabres?  Boston has 25, Carolina with 27, Edmonton 21, Minnesota 26.

[PerreaultForever]

I think people need to ease up on Mittlestadt. The expectation is unreasonable. He is simply being asked to do too much as the #2 center at this stage. Maybe if he had some better wingers, but really he's simply not ready for the role he's been thrust into, but we really have no better option. Clearly the long term structure is more important to them than the result and the decision is he will grow into the role. Gonna take time though and lots of coaching. 

The problem isn't that we have injuries, it's that we lack depth. 

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think people need to ease up on Mittlestadt. The expectation is unreasonable. He is simply being asked to do too much as the #2 center at this stage. Maybe if he had some better wingers, but really he's simply not ready for the role he's been thrust into, but we really have no better option. Clearly the long term structure is more important to them than the result and the decision is he will grow into the role. Gonna take time though and lots of coaching. 

The problem isn't that we have injuries, it's that we lack depth. 

We would all be signing his praises if he was put in the same position as the RAV line back in the day. Bringing up a whole line of young guys to be the third scoring line would be perfect for this team given the effectiveness of line 4. They could get sheltered minutes in the offensive zone and limit ice time when needed. Unfortunately we just don't have the 2nd line of veterans to be able to do this (more specifically the 2C to do this). 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

On 12/12/2018 at 3:29 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is week to week with an undisclosed upper-body injury and “don’t expect him to play anytime soon” according to the Sabres.com twitter feed.  Sounds suspiciously like a concussion.

Yes, sounds likely it's a concussion.

[Doohickie]

On 12/13/2018 at 2:51 PM, PerreaultForever said:

I think people need to ease up on Mittlestadt. The expectation is unreasonable. He is simply being asked to do too much as the #2 center at this stage. Maybe if he had some better wingers, but really he's simply not ready for the role he's been thrust into, but we really have no better option.

Patrik Berlund would disagree.  In fact I think he'd stake his NHL career on it.

[klos1963]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:49 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

31 games in we are:

18-9-4 = 40 pts for 3rd in the Atlantic, 3rd in the East and 6th in the NHL. However our underlying numbers, while playoff worthy are not as good.

We are 12th is GA with 91 goals allowed.

We are 17th in GF with 95 tallies.

Our +4 differential is 14th.

We are also 12th in PK at 81.5% and 18th on the PP at 18.8%.  

We are a stellar 10-3-2 at home and a solid 8-6-2 on the road.

Against the elite teams in the NHL (TB, TOR, Bos, Wash, Nash, Wpg, Colo, SJ and Clg) we are a lousy 3-7-1 including 3 early season blow out loses.  

We are 8-4 in OT/SO games including 3-0 in shoot outs.  The Sabres have also played in 9 other games with a 1 goal differential late in the 3rd.  4 of 9 featured a late empty net goal to seal the victory.  We are 5-4 in these 1 goal games.

Put these categories together and the Sabres are 13-4-4 in one goal games.  5-5 in the other 10 games.

However the Sabres followed their 10 game winning streak with 5 loses (0-3-2) and with the win last night are only 5-3-2 in their last 10.

These are the numbers of a vastly improved team that because of the 10 game win streak is really higher in the standings then they should be.  That said there are lots of positives to take from these team numbers.

1) The Sabres are never out of a hockey games, well almost never.  This is a huge improvement for a team that finished 31st last season.  As fans to be able to watch a game and know the team has a chance to win every night was all any of us were asking from this season before the season started and the Sabres have delivered.

2) The coach and GM are in control of this team, as it should be. PH’s system of active D is working and Jbot has cleansed the locker room and mostly brought in quality players.

3) We have young superstars and some quality depth around them, but we aren’t quite there yet.  Eichel is finally a true superstar.  Jack has 38 pts in 31 games and finally is scoring goals. He is currently tied for 9th in pts, just 1 pt from 7th.  He is ahead of Kane, Stamkos, Duchene, Crosby, Tavares, Giroux and Malkin. Dahlin is 6th in rookie scoring, 2nd in D rookie scoring and a +6.  PH is giving him  more PT. I like Thompson and Mittelstadt also, but they need to add serious body weight and experience to succeed in the NHL. Skinner must feel like he has died and gone to heaven to be playing with a top flight center and it has showed in his game.  Also McCabe’s improvement prior to his injury has also been a key component in the improved defensive performance on both ends of ice. Also nice to have a healthy Bogo.

4) Defensive scoring.  Non-existant last season, now a strength.  Risto leads with 20 pts (3g) YTD, but everyone is adding.  Top 7 plus Pilut now have 14g and 53a for the season. Pilut has 2a and is +2 in his 5 games and frankly shouldn’t return to the minors.

5) Improved goaltending.  If all we knew was 3-0 in shoot outs I’d think we’d be happy, but Hutton and Ullmark have really kept us in nearly every game and have stolen a couple of games for us such as the 2-1 win against TB.  

Now for the bad

1) We are deep in players, but the overall talent level still needs to improve.  Some of this will come from continued improvement from rookie Dahlin, Pilut, Casey and Tage, but that is not enough. With the injuries to Scandella and McCabe (plus Nelson) despite solid play from Pilut, the Sabres still don’t have adequate defense.  Having to bring up Tennyson means we don’t have enough depth.  Admittedly losing 3 of the top 6 D would make any team suffer, but it’s become clear, at least to me that Baloo, Hunwick and Tennyson are not the answer we need.  Scandella’s return will help.  However the Sabres are now 1-3-2 since McCabe got hurt on Dec 4.

The forward group also needs better center play.  Jack is great,  but Casey, ERod, Larsson, Sobotka and Berglund are not getting the job done with any consistency behind him.  Berglund looks to slow to play in today’s NHL. Larsson is developing into a quality 4th line center, but in order to get the most out of Pommers, Okposo, Thompson and Sheary on the middle wings, we must get more from Casey and someone else.

2) Secondary scoring remains a huge issue.  The Sabres have 95 goals, of which the D has 14.  That leaves the forwards with 81 goals.  Jack and his mates, Skinner, Pommers and Reinhart account for 48 of those 81 goals.  Pommers hasn’t registered a pt in the last 7 games since being moved off Jack’s line and only 4 (1g) pts in his last 15 games.  This means the other 10 forwards the Sabres carry have only 33 goals between them.  That’s simply awful.  Sheary and KO have 11 of the 33,  but 5 of their 11 goals have come on the PP.  

3) Injuries are a big problem right now.  Wilson and Hunwick have been out all year.  Scandella, McCabe and recently Nelson have added to the D injury issues and their injuries IMHO were the key reason for the 5 game losing streak.  McCabe week to week injury is a huge problem going forward.  Losing Hutton and Sheary for a few games each also didn’t help.

4) PP and PK help.  We need to better here and I believe part of the issue with both special teams is our poor faceoff %.  This is where trading ROR has hurt the Sabres.  Berglund and Sobotla were supposed to help, but their mediocre play overall has limited their ability to make a real impact here.  Jack leads in FO’s taken and is improved but still is only 46%.  Larsson has taken the 2nd most draws and is at 50%. Sobotka is 3rd in faceoffs taken but is only 46%. Casey is only at 38%. Much easier to score on the PP or stop scoring on the PK if you can get possession from the draw.

Solutions:

1) Talent at center.  While we have a million guys who can play center, we don’t have enough guys who are actually good at it.  Casey may develop into a good 2nd line center, but that is at least another year or two away.   If Jbot makes a move this is where I hope it comes from.  There is no one in Rochester that can help.  Asplund is the only prospect with top 9 NHL Center potential in Roch and he is only just now finding his game in NA.  

I’m not sure how this gets fixed.  We are up against the cap and I don’t know who is available that could help in the FO circle and help KO and Sheary create more offense.  

2) I think Wilson will be a positive when he gets back.  I don’t mind Elie, but he doesn’t exactly add anything except forechecking.  Wilson is a better player then Sobotka, Berglund, Larsson, Girgensons and Elie.  

3) Defense:  I think we have learned that we have 6 guys who can play 20 minutes+ a night when healthy in Risto, Dahlin, Bogo, Scandella, McCabe and Pilut.  This is the good news.  The bad news is that Scandella, McCabe and Bogo have significant injury histories, Pilut and Dahlin are rookies and Risto tends to fade when over worked.  Baloo and Nelson are ok depth players, but have proven they can’t be trusted with more then 15 minutes a game. Hunwick is over the hill.  I’d like to see another D brought in for better insurance then Tennyson.  I also wouldn’t mind seeing if guys like Daughtry and Guhle can step up and help.  

I think Tennyson is the 9th defenseman to play, Hunwick will be 10. That's good depth because they have NHL experience. Still have Guhle that can step in too.