Defense This season vs last - Better?

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/677207/2018/11/26/recipe-for-success-for-sabres-defensemen-mixing-familiarity-with-their-new-phenom/

Yerdon’s article is pretty interesting.  He notes that the Corsi for most of our D are about the same as last year for the returnees although Dahlin is 52 and McCabe and Nelson are improved. He talks about the high quality chances against being about the same, but the conversation rate is down significantly.  

To me this smells like improved goaltending more then improved defense, except 2 major factors health and offense.  

The offensive output went from zero last season to being amongst the leagues best and Dahlin has been a major factor in that, but so has a return to health for Bogo and McCabe.  McCabe is 3rd on the team in D scoring and is on pace to blow away his career bests.  This means to me that despite taking more chances on offense and creating more offense, we are still playing reasonable defense.  

Last night was a classic example of the new Sabres.  2 goals by the defense, some excellent goaltending, and the ability to keep a strong offensive team to just 2 goals.

In fact, during the streak we have given up 2 or less goals in 7 of the games, including 7 of the last 8.  

This defense is beginning to look a lot like Nashville’s (no surprise) and Phil himself.  I think this is the new status quo in Buffalo and I like it.  I also like that we still have a physical edge to our D group. Bogo, Risto, Scandella and McCabe all have physical aspects to their game. No liberties on Jack, Raz and Skinner will be tolerated. So a nice blend of old and new.

Jbot also won’t be giving up on physical D as well as Borgen and Samuelsson are working their way up.  I think Guhle, with McCabe as a mentor could develop that way as well.

[Randall Flagg]

I think their defensive play, aside from Dahlin, isn't super different from last season. 

Last season they were in the top half in shots/corsi/quality shots allowed, if I remember correctly. It may have been the best aspect of the team, so it's not too much of an insult to say that that part of the team isn't much improved. 

There are still lots of coverage gaffs and we give up a ridiculous amount of slot chances compared to other teams. 

They'll get better. 

And yeah, the offensive side is a million times better. 

[R_Dudley]

GASabres....   "To me this smells like improved goaltending more then improved defense, except 2 major factors health and offense."  

Randall....  "And yeah, the offensive side is a million times better. "

Interesting question and comparison. I don't have access to the Athletic and admittedly I am not a stats guy like both you and Randall but you both acknowledge much improved offense so pardon my ignorance with Corsi, shots/quality shots allowed but I have a few questions around that.

Do those stats factor in or reflect the improved offensive output?  

Does improved offensive output imply more risk and situations that would typically negatively effect the Corsi/stats numbers because they are caught out of position?  

So those questions considered and the fact the numbers are relatively the same given the higher risk factors and improved offensive production, can one not also infer that the defense is better?   

There is an analogy that the best defense is a great offense so there's also that. 

[MJS]

Pretty easy to see that goaltending is much improved. The new faces on defense are also contributing. Plus, having a good offense improves the defense (and vice versa).

= More wins

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, R_Dudley said:

GASabres....   "To me this smells like improved goaltending more then improved defense, except 2 major factors health and offense."  

Randall....  "And yeah, the offensive side is a million times better. "

Interesting question and comparison. I don't have access to the Athletic and admittedly I am not a stats guy like both you and Randall but you both acknowledge much improved offense so pardon my ignorance with Corsi, shots/quality shots allowed but I have a few questions around that.

Do those stats factor in or reflect the improved offensive output?  

Does improved offensive output imply more risk and situations that would typically negatively effect the Corsi/stats numbers because they are caught out of position?  

So those questions considered and the fact the numbers are relatively the same given the higher risk factors and improved offensive production, can one not also infer that the defense is better?   

There is an analogy that the best defense is a great offense so there's also that. 

That is exactly what I was trying to imply.  If the guys are taking more chances (and succeeding) without a corresponding increase in quality shots against, then I have to agree they are playing better defensively as well.  Hopefully, we'll eventually get to the point where we keep the opponents so hemmed in their own zone that we'll actually see a decrease in chances against as well.

Edited November 29, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[BagBoy]

9 minutes ago, R_Dudley said:

GASabres....   "To me this smells like improved goaltending more then improved defense, except 2 major factors health and offense."  

Randall....  "And yeah, the offensive side is a million times better. "

Interesting question and comparison. I don't have access to the Athletic and admittedly I am not a stats guy like both you and Randall but you both acknowledge much improved offense so pardon my ignorance with Corsi, shots/quality shots allowed but I have a few questions around that.

Do those stats factor in or reflect the improved offensive output?  

Does improved offensive output imply more risk and situations that would typically negatively effect the Corsi/stats numbers because they are caught out of position?  

So those questions considered and the fact the numbers are relatively the same given the higher risk factors and improved offensive production, can one not also infer that the defense is better?   

There is an analogy that the best defense is a great offense so there's also that. 

I'm with you Rick (and GA and Randall).  Strictly defensively speaking, our defense does not feel miles ahead of last year's defense to me, but it definitely seems a bit better.  We now have Dahlin, and we have been healthy so far this year (knock on wood), so those have been big advantages.  Obviously this year's goaltending has cured a lot of last year's defensive warts.  Phil getting everyone to buy in on letting the defensemen crash the net when appropriate has also been a big plus.

 

[Scottysabres]

Addition & Subtraction have made them better imo.

[Randall Flagg]

38 minutes ago, R_Dudley said:

GASabres....   "To me this smells like improved goaltending more then improved defense, except 2 major factors health and offense."  

 Randall....  "And yeah, the offensive side is a million times better. "

 Interesting question and comparison. I don't have access to the Athletic and admittedly I am not a stats guy like both you and Randall but you both acknowledge much improved offense so pardon my ignorance with Corsi, shots/quality shots allowed but I have a few questions around that.

 Do those stats factor in or reflect the improved offensive output?  

 Does improved offensive output imply more risk and situations that would typically negatively effect the Corsi/stats numbers because they are caught out of position?  

So those questions considered and the fact the numbers are relatively the same given the higher risk factors and improved offensive production, can one not also infer that the defense is better?   

There is an analogy that the best defense is a great offense so there's also that. 

I'm not super sure how to get stats with which I feel comfortable trying to answer these questions. I started opening tabs but I was quickly overwhelmed. 

I think our team has improved at moving the puck to the point where the sheer number of chances available to our D has increased. I also think they were ridiculously unlucky last year.  I don't care how bad your defense is, it's not so bad that it takes 28 games to get your first goal from them. At this rate, they will match last year's D in goals scored by game 34. So part is just returning to being a relatively normal NHL team as far as getting goals from the D, versus being a ridiculously bad and probably historical outlier. I think they've been boosted by the abilities of 50% of the forward roster being overhauled. Instead of Griffith failing to get the puck back to the point, Berglund can get it there. That kind of thing. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Addition & Subtraction have made them better imo.

The health issue is really noticeable here.  Six of the 7 defenders were here last year.  Only Dahlin is new.  

Jbot banished Antipin, Tennyson, Gorges, and Falk; essentially eliminating all the guys who lack speed and offensive skill.

Also healthy McCabe and Bogo has made the D group much more consistent.  It is easier to play together and play well when your playing with the same partner every night.

The Sabres used 13 D last season and only 7 so far this one.  Last year Bogo played only 18 games (and none of then well) and McCabe only 56. 

Just to give you a feel for the difference our top 7 last season in terms of games played last year were

Scandella 82 games

Risto 73

Baloo 59

McCabe 56

Antipin 47

Falk 46

Nelson 37

 

What a difference a year makes.

[Scottysabres]

51 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The health issue is really noticeable here.  Six of the 7 defenders were here last year.  Only Dahlin is new.  

Jbot banished Antipin, Tennyson, Gorges, and Falk; essentially eliminating all the guys who lack speed and offensive skill.

Also healthy McCabe and Bogo has made the D group much more consistent.  It is easier to play together and play well when your playing with the same partner every night.

The Sabres used 13 D last season and only 7 so far this one.  Last year Bogo played only 18 games (and none of then well) and McCabe only 56. 

Just to give you a feel for the difference our top 7 last season in terms of games played last year were

Scandella 82 games

Risto 73

Baloo 59

McCabe 56

Antipin 47

Falk 46

Nelson 37

 

What a difference a year makes.

I read somewhere Risto's play has picked up since his time has come down a bit. Not sure where though.

[Randall Flagg]

@dudacek still needs to give me my "L" on improvement from the guys that remained on the team from last year. Don't hold back, I can take it ? 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[R_Dudley]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The health issue is really noticeable here.  Six of the 7 defenders were here last year.  Only Dahlin is new.  

Jbot banished Antipin, Tennyson, Gorges, and Falk; essentially eliminating all the guys who lack speed and offensive skill.

Also healthy McCabe and Bogo has made the D group much more consistent.  It is easier to play together and play well when your playing with the same partner every night.

The Sabres used 13 D last season and only 7 so far this one.  Last year Bogo played only 18 games (and none of then well) and McCabe only 56. 

Just to give you a feel for the difference our top 7 last season in terms of games played last year were

Scandella 82 games

Risto 73

Baloo 59

McCabe 56

Antipin 47

Falk 46

Nelson 37

 

What a difference a year makes.

All really good information for contrasting whats different especially the banishment piece. Forgot about  Antipin, Tennyson, Gorges, and Falk and how many games they actually played. 

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not super sure how to get stats with which I feel comfortable trying to answer these questions. I started opening tabs but I was quickly overwhelmed. 

I think our team has improved at moving the puck to the point where the sheer number of chances available to our D has increased. I also think they were ridiculously unlucky last year.  I don't care how bad your defense is, it's not so bad that it takes 28 games to get your first goal from them. At this rate, they will match last year's D in goals scored by game 34. So part is just returning to being a relatively normal NHL team as far as getting goals from the D, versus being a ridiculously bad and probably historical outlier. I think they've been boosted by the abilities of 50% of the forward roster being overhauled. Instead of Griffith failing to get the puck back to the point, Berglund can get it there. That kind of thing. 

Yeah definitely see the differences on the ice.    

Between these, GA's points and the eye test of watching these games I am in the Much better camp. 

Thanks for the discussion..

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not super sure how to get stats with which I feel comfortable trying to answer these questions. I started opening tabs but I was quickly overwhelmed. 

I think our team has improved at moving the puck to the point where the sheer number of chances available to our D has increased. I also think they were ridiculously unlucky last year.  I don't care how bad your defense is, it's not so bad that it takes 28 games to get your first goal from them. At this rate, they will match last year's D in goals scored by game 34. So part is just returning to being a relatively normal NHL team as far as getting goals from the D, versus being a ridiculously bad and probably historical outlier. I think they've been boosted by the abilities of 50% of the forward roster being overhauled. Instead of Griffith failing to get the puck back to the point, Berglund can get it there. That kind of thing. 

Well, maybe not Berglund.

One other note:  While I hate to mention that horrible team just north of the border.  The year they turned it around the health of their D was one of the keys to their season. Their top 5 D played a minimum of 72 games, and their 6th 67.  That type of continuity can overcome some significant weaknesses.  In Toronto's case, they aren't physical or really very good in their own zone.  We don't have those issues any longer and now we are putting the puck in the net at a solid rate. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

Yep.  The D is better and as has been already stated the health of Bogosian & McCabe contribute to that as much as the addition of Dahlin.

Scandella is the only D-man that has regressed to date, but IMHO he is battling more than just the foot injury from the blocked shot.  He looked bad last October battling IIRC a hip injury to go along w/ learning his new team.  This year, he's had moments, but hasn't looked right more often than not.  Hopefully he stays out of the lineup long enough to get whatever injury is affecting his play is healed up enough to make him a legit top 4 again.  If he does they'll have 5 top 4 and a legit 6 in whenever all 7 are ready.  And that's without Pilut who could be top 4 with a month or so of seasoning not even included.

[Mig_22]

The goaltending is better than last year, although about the same as the year before,  but still the metrics (save %, goals saved over average) have Hutton right near the middle of the pack. It's not like he's putting up a wall back there.  

I have a theory that I need to research and would welcome thoughts on.  The team still makes the mistakes in coverage and turnovers leading to the high number of slot opportunities that Flagg mentioned.  Also, there are periods (sometimes whole periods) when the team runs around its own end and looks terrible.  The difference in the defense this year is that those times, while still really bad, do not make up a large portion of games.   On corsica hockey, you can see the expected goals in a lot of the Sabres games this year be very tight with the opposition.  So the idea is, that they are playing just as poorly as ever sometimes, but for shorter periods of time.  Testing that with available data is probably a real chore.

[SwampD]

Our D is vastly improved this year. I don't even think it's close.

They make better decisions with the puck. They use their partners more. I don't know if they hit more, but it seems like they are smarter about it. They are so much more skilled in the offensive zone (they can actually even keep the puck in to keep the play alive.)

Yes, Hutton has been great, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have that third Dman handling the puck at times, but this D is a joy to watch. Last year was pain.

[matter2003]

Our transition game is far far better, as is the puck movement within our defensive zone. Many times they will make these slick little touch passes even under duress in their own end this year that lead to quick breakouts where I dont know if I even saw one of those types of plays last year.  

They are in better position as well, much less running around aimlessly, so many times these chances are with Sabre players in position to defend better which turns it from a Grade A chance to a Grade B or C chance.

These advanced metrics can only go so far. Anyone who is watching them in the defensive zone from last year to this year can see its night and day.