matter2003 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Gives us an A grade so far but only a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scout.com/hockey/nhl/news/sabres-earn-an-a-by-exceeding-expectations-181121374/amp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I should have stopped at "money line," but I kept scanning. Look, today is a "clear loss." Pure rubbish. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I bet they are worried about goaltending holding up and are ability to win 1 goal games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Gives us an A grade so far but only a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scout.com/hockey/nhl/news/sabres-earn-an-a-by-exceeding-expectations-181121374/amp/ CBSsports only gives the Sabres a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs...and even with showing up to date standings, they are only projecting the Sabres get to "34.9" wins total on the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, PASabreFan said: I should have stopped at "money line," but I kept scanning. Look, today is a "clear loss." Pure rubbish. We're also better at home this year which they seem to ignore Just now, mjd1001 said: CBSsports only gives the Sabres a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs...and even with showing up to date standings, they are only projecting the Sabres get to "34.9" wins total on the season. Isn't that win % tank level bad? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHawerchuk10 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said: I should have stopped at "money line," but I kept scanning. Look, today is a "clear loss." Pure rubbish. I think they gave us like a 10% chance of winning 1 game on the recent road trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I didn't read to see how they came to that conclusion, but I bet they lean on data that was generated back when we had like 15 different players on terrible teams the past couple years. Or the sentiment that our half-decade as the NHL's Cleveland Browns has burned into peoples brains. It's gonna take a while to scrub that out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: I didn't read to see how they came to that conclusion, but I bet they lean on data that was generated back when we had like 15 different players on terrible teams the past couple years. Or the sentiment that our half-decade as the NHL's Cleveland Browns has burned into peoples brains. It's gonna take a while to scrub that out. Some of the Data seems like it has to be old. I read an article the other day that had the Sabres projected to get 94.5 points for the season, it was based on a projection using Jeff Sagarins model or a model similar to it. 94.5 points would involve the Sabres slowing down from their current pace, but it is a lot more believable than the other 2 models above that suggest they play like the worst team in the league for the rest of the year to get to their projection. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said: CBSsports only gives the Sabres a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs...and even with showing up to date standings, they are only projecting the Sabres get to "34.9" wins total on the season. If the Sabres do better than that they need to send an apology letter to Terry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Kinda like PAs to TPegs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 (edited) Food for thought: Over the last 10 years 162 teams finished with a + gf/ga differential 146 (90%) made the playoffs. The teams with the best differential to miss were Buf +16 and Min +19, both in 2009. Teams with a zero differential oddly went 3 for 3 making the playoffs 136 teams had a negative differential and only 11 made the playoffs (8%). 8 of the 11 had differentials in the single digits. Only Ott (-13 in 2010), Fla (-24 in 2012) and Det (-13 in 2016) made the playoffs with a truly lousy differential. The Sabres sits 3rd in the Atlantic and at +5. The +5 is the 5th best differential in the East. The NYI at +8 sit out of the playoffs while the NYR at -2 sit second in the Metro. Edited November 22, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 (edited) They clearly didn't factor in chemistry or culture. Edited November 21, 2018 by ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said: That's ok, NHL Network had a thing on their crawler saying the Sabres were +4 in their 6 game win streak and it took me more than a minute to figure out how that was possible. SO goals don’t count as gf. We won 2 of the 6 in a SO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, LGR4GM said: I bet they are worried about goaltending holding up and are ability to win 1 goal games We're they equally concerned about the Sabres ability to lose 1 goal games last season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caseydean Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Statistic analysis sites have the current playoff chances between 50-70%, depending on methodology. If some one offers 10-1, bet the house. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Randall Flagg said: I didn't read to see how they came to that conclusion, but I bet they lean on data that was generated back when we had like 15 different players on terrible teams the past couple years. Or the sentiment that our half-decade as the NHL's Cleveland Browns has burned into peoples brains. It's gonna take a while to scrub that out. Oh ya. The league's leading win streak isn't even enough to get even a footnote mention on most sports shows over here. TV, radio, or otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said: SO goals don’t count as gf. We won 2 of the 6 in a SO. Eh? I thought shootout wins added 1 goal to the total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kruppstahl Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 We are winning a lot of 1 goal games now. That is not sustainable and is going to regress at some point. The key here is we can't go on some epic 5 or 6 game losing streak, effectively negating our win streak to a .500 affair. Need to keep going with at least .500 hockey moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 hours ago, ... said: They clearly didn't factor in chemistry or culture. They didn't factor in those, or hockey, or analytics, or anything else either, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: They didn't factor in those, or hockey, or analytics, or anything else either, IMO. Haha, exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caseydean Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said: They didn't factor in those, or hockey, or analytics, or anything else either, IMO. Agreed.This was done by someone who apparently has no training in statistics or hockey. The game to game predictions have the sophistication of a third grader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter2003 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just read somewhere that teams in a playoff position on Thanksgiving go on to make the playoffs 78% of the time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 hours ago, matter2003 said: Just read somewhere that teams in a playoff position on Thanksgiving go on to make the playoffs 78% of the time... That was last year, the year before it was in the high 80s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter2003 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, North Buffalo said: That was last year, the year before it was in the high 80s I think that was the cumulative average over how ever many seasons they looked at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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