Jack’s shooting % - Is it a problem?

PASabreFan · November 17, 2018

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

The expectations are certainly changing. The consensus before seemed to be ~ point a game, 80 points as the bar for success for Jack. He's pacing for 86 points currently, and now that's not enough.

So the bar is what now, 90 points a season? 100?

Team is 3 games above Deluca .500, 7th in the NHL, with 22 year old Jack wearing the C and scoring at an 86 point pace, previous career high being 64.

He makes 10 mil. Big deal. Tavares makes 11 mil and has 3 points more than Jack and by all accounts he's having a tremendous season.

Tough, tough crowd.

Scoring is up considerably. I think that's what changed in terms of expectations.

WildCard · November 17, 2018

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Scoring is up considerably. I think that's what changed in terms of expectations.

Yup, this is it exactly

PASabreFan · November 17, 2018

15 minutes ago, LTS said:

Pretty sure he won't be in the running for it this year. It's amazing what the team around you can do for your stats.

But, whatever. Jack is fine. He's worth every penny being spent on him (when using NHL economic value rules).

He makes the Sabres go right now and they are going very well.

True. He's got some intangibles going for him, captaining a top team and all. But without very, very good goaltending, Eichel's production is probably more of a point of debate.

Listen — I just want Eichel to be elite. He has it in him. For starters, something has to be done about that one timer on the peepah.

LTS · November 17, 2018

8 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

True. He's got some intangibles going for him, captaining a top team and all. But without very, very good goaltending, Eichel's production is probably more of a point of debate.

Listen — I just want Eichel to be elite. He has it in him. For starters, something has to be done about that one timer on the peepah.

I agree. If this team were losing and Eichel had the same point production people would question his leadership, etc. The team makes everyone look better than they are.

I happen to be a fan of Toews but he's not worth $10.5M. He happened upon the right situation at the right time, just like Eichel did. A team that needed to sign him or else risk losing what they were building. A few years later and that contract is looking real bad. I don't think that's going to happen with Eichel.

I wonder how many teams are scoring as prolifically on that one-timer play these days. It seems so many teams have tried to go to it that teams might find a way (and goaltenders) to lessen the percentage chance of success. Granted he's not hitting the net much either. Could be the stick change?

The good news is that a talented player has a better chance of adapting to those kinds of changes.

nfreeman · November 17, 2018

IMHO, the reason people are concerned about Eichel is that we all know that goals are more precious than assists. If Eichel ends up with 31-56-87, everyone will be happy. If it’s 19–68-87? Not so much, and that lesser degree of happiness is the correct reaction.

LTS · November 17, 2018

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO, the reason people are concerned about Eichel is that we all know that goals are more precious than assists. If Eichel ends up with 31-56-87, everyone will be happy. If it’s 19–68-87? Not so much, and that lesser degree of happiness is the correct reaction.

By whose judgment? It's a bit presumptuous to be telling anyone how they are supposed to feel about the situation you described.

In the end, Jack Eichel will be involved in some percentage of the team's overall scoring. You want him to drive that number. If he does and the rest of the team isn't coming along such that he's somewhere near 45-50% then it's a huge issue (but not with Eichel). If he's in the 30-35% range and the team fills out the rest then that's a good thing.

I don't care who puts the puck in the net, I care that the puck goes in the net. I care that it goes in the net more than the other team puts it in the Sabres net. Those are the real metrics that matter.

Edited November 17, 2018 by LTS

nfreeman · November 17, 2018

@LTS— you are certainly welcome to your opinion on this, but it’s not quite as simple as “I don’t care who scores the goals as long as the goals are scored.” That statement assumes away the whole issue.

About 1.7 assists on average are awarded for each goal. Accordingly, if player X has 20-70-90 while player Y has 35-55-90, player Y’s team almost certainly has scored more total goals than player X's when those 2 were on the ice.

calti · November 17, 2018

On 11/15/2018 at 7:36 PM, Doohickie said:

What's a cowsill?

... after googling... wow, you're right.

hehe--glad you caught that:)

calti · November 17, 2018

7 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

True. He's got some intangibles going for him, captaining a top team and all. But without very, very good goaltending, Eichel's production is probably more of a point of debate.

Listen — I just want Eichel to be elite. He has it in him. For starters, something has to be done about that one timer on the peepah.

yep i would agree-would be nice if he were a top 10 player in the league vs top 30. could be the difference between just playoffs vs contender

Thorny · November 17, 2018

10 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Yeah, that's right. Thanks. I don't know how nhl.com breaks the tie. But it appears there's a glitch there. Radulov, who has played nine games, is above Wheeler, who has played 18 games. Same points per game. Eichel and two others have played 19 games and have the same PPG, but Eichel is 40th, the others 41 and 42. Doesn't matter really.

The thing about how they sort the rankings on nhl.com you'll find also is that depending on when you click to sort by goals, or assists, or points or points per game, or anything, it'll give you a different order based on which sorting or web address it's currently on when you click the new sort. If that makes sense. If you are sitting on it being sorted by goals, and click points per game, it may be a different order ranking than when you say click points per game as the first option you choose.

And say you sort by assists, generally it'll actually rank you higher, in a tie, if you have less goals than the guy you tied. There's tons of little stipulations, you'll find.

It's weird and as you say, doesn't matter really.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Thorny

Thorny · November 17, 2018

10 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Scoring is up considerably. I think that's what changed in terms of expectations.

I just don't think that those paces are going to hold for many of those players. This seems to happen every year. Scoring may go up some from last year but it's going to level out. If Jack isn't one of those guys who levels out, he'll be in a great spot.

Thorny · November 17, 2018

10 hours ago, LTS said:

I agree. If this team were losing and Eichel had the same point production people would question his leadership, etc. The team makes everyone look better than they are.

I happen to be a fan of Toews but he's not worth $10.5M. He happened upon the right situation at the right time, just like Eichel did. A team that needed to sign him or else risk losing what they were building. A few years later and that contract is looking real bad. I don't think that's going to happen with Eichel.

I wonder how many teams are scoring as prolifically on that one-timer play these days. It seems so many teams have tried to go to it that teams might find a way (and goaltenders) to lessen the percentage chance of success. Granted he's not hitting the net much either. Could be the stick change?

The good news is that a talented player has a better chance of adapting to those kinds of changes.

I get PA's viewpoint of wanting certifiably elite. but if Jack's leadership was being questioned as he was producing at over a point a game rate, I'd have an issue with it.

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO, the reason people are concerned about Eichel is that we all know that goals are more precious than assists. If Eichel ends up with 31-56-87, everyone will be happy. If it’s 19–68-87? Not so much, and that lesser degree of happiness is the correct reaction.

Not I. I'd be great with that.

Not all stat lines are created equal. It's like people here want to look at that stat line from an outsider's viewpoint, without context. For a guy who piles up a bunch of powerplay, secondary assists, it'd be different.

But we are watching the games. We knows he's making that line go. His assists are a big part of those Skinner goals. To me, they are not less precious. They are contributing equally to the offence, if not more so.

Question yourself this: Who do you think is the more important cog in our offence right now? Eichel, or Skinner? Does the offence suffer more as a whole if you remove Eichel, or Skinner?

His 4-16-20 has not, to me, been less precious that a 8-12-20, considering Skinner's stat line would be changing correspondingly.

Thorny · November 18, 2018

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

@LTS— you are certainly welcome to your opinion on this, but it’s not quite as simple as “I don’t care who scores the goals as long as the goals are scored.” That statement assumes away the whole issue.

About 1.7 assists on average are awarded for each goal. Accordingly, if player X has 20-70-90 while player Y has 35-55-90, player Y’s team almost certainly has scored more total goals than player X's when those 2 were on the ice.

This ignores the situation where these two statlines are on the same line. As we are seeing with Jack and Skinner, just to an even more extreme degree.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Thorny

LikeEich · November 18, 2018

Yikes... It's not even a little bit of a problem! Seriously it's been 20 games. Do you know how often even franchise players shoot 5.8% for 20 games? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it's happened to Crosby multiple times, probably damn near everyone who has been in the league long enough, has had it happen. This team is third in the Atlantic ahead of Boston (whom many of you thought would finish first in the division) this hardly seems concerning in the slightest

LikeEich · November 18, 2018

How many of Eichels assists have been rebounds? That is definitely relevant here in regards to shooting % as well

Gatorman0519 · November 18, 2018

Jack is generating offense via Adam Oats style. And they are winning. I’m fine with it. The goals will come.

LTS · November 18, 2018

On 11/17/2018 at 9:59 AM, nfreeman said:

@LTS— you are certainly welcome to your opinion on this, but it’s not quite as simple as “I don’t care who scores the goals as long as the goals are scored.” That statement assumes away the whole issue.

About 1.7 assists on average are awarded for each goal. Accordingly, if player X has 20-70-90 while player Y has 35-55-90, player Y’s team almost certainly has scored more total goals than player X's when those 2 were on the ice.

I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at. Those two stat lines are responsible for the same amount of goals as it pertains to those two players directly. I don't care how they balance out if they are both responsible for the same amount of goals that go in the net.

If you bring the third player into this it doesn't really change anything for me. In order to get an assist, someone has to put the puck in the net. I only care about the goals because those are what go up on the scoreboard. If a player is generating assists it means someone is scoring. Whether it's Player A, Player B, or the "other players" who comprise the team. the point is that goals are being scored... and that matters.

nfreeman · November 18, 2018

3 minutes ago, LTS said:

I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at. Those two stat lines are responsible for the same amount of goals as it pertains to those two players directly. I don't care how they balance out if they are both responsible for the same amount of goals that go in the net.

If you bring the third player into this it doesn't really change anything for me. In order to get an assist, someone has to put the puck in the net. I only care about the goals because those are what go up on the scoreboard. If a player is generating assists it means someone is scoring. Whether it's Player A, Player B, or the "other players" who comprise the team. the point is that goals are being scored... and that matters.

But my point is that it's not the same # of goals! If player A is 35-55-90 and player B is 20-70-90, then A's team has almost certainly scored more goals when A is on the ice (A's 35 goals, plus 55/1.7) than B's team has scored when B is on the ice (B's 20 goals, plus 70/1.7).

LTS · November 18, 2018

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

But my point is that it's not the same # of goals! If player A is 35-55-90 and player B is 20-70-90, then A's team has almost certainly scored more goals when A is on the ice (A's 35 goals, plus 55/1.7) than B's team has scored when B is on the ice (B's 20 goals, plus 70/1.7).

How are you justifying discounting assists when assists can only be tallied when a goal is scored?

I understand your point about 1.7 assists / goal but I am failing to understand how that applies to the players being evaluated. Both are responsible for the exact same number of pucks entering the net. Neither of them have earned an assist anywhere else... they can't. You can't earn an assist if a puck doesn't go in the net.

You don't know what other players have done nor can you assume what they've done since you don't have that information.

Player A directly scored 35 of his teams goals and he indirectly assisted on 55 more. He had no more or no less impact on goals entering the net than 90. The rest of the players on the ice could have scored 0 or 1,000 goals and A would have no more and no less points than 90.

Player B directly scored 20 of his teams goals and he indirectly assisted on 70 more. He had no more or no less impact on goals entering the net than 90. The rest of the players on the ice could have scored 0 or 1,000 goals and B would have no more and no less points than 90.

This 1.7 number is not applicable as they earned the assist. It's not projected, it happened. If you were trying to project how many assists players would get based on the number of goals scored you'd apply the 1.7 number by the number of goals.

Edited November 18, 2018 by LTS

Doohickie · November 19, 2018

If the 1C on a team scores 16 goals but gets 70+ assists, and the team makes a deep run into the playoffs, I don't think we should care that he didn't score 30. This is a team game. As long as the team is successful, Jack.... uh.... I mean, that 1C, won't really care that he didn't light the lamp that much, and neither should we.

Thorny · November 20, 2018

With 2 points registered yesterday, Eichel now has 201 points in his first 230 career NHL games. Most impressive.

Noticeable on the GWG yesterday, was how much space Letang gave Eichel in backing away from him on the play, having to respect the pass.

Doohickie · November 20, 2018

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Noticeable on the GWG yesterday, was how much space Letang gave Eichel in backing away from him on the play, having to respect the pass.

And if he hadn't taken away the pass and tried to play the shot, Eich would have burned him with a pass, which Sheary would have buried.