Jump to content

GDT Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres 7:30pm ET 11/8/18


Andrew Amerk

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No you were not. Domi is shooting at 28.1% right now that is completely unsustainable, especially for someone with a career sh% of 10.1. At 10.1 he would hit roughly 17 goals on the season, while I believe this season he will top that, he isn't a 20+% sniper suddenly appearing. 

 Domi is maybe a 20 goal scorer but this pace is bound to slow. He's basically pulling a Stafford. Or William Karlsson, he went from 23.4% down to 11.5%. Domi will come back to earth, the question is when. 

A couple things about this: 

I was still wrong because even if he regresses to his normal shooting percentage, he will DOUBLE his goal production on the season from last full season. 

This shooting percentage discussion gets used far too much, and isn't really an accurate representation of how things work. It is not that people shoot 10% on average over 10, 20, 40, and then full season long lengths, and then every once in a blue moon have times where they way out-perform or way under-perform and will soon be back to normal. In reality, players shoot all over the place and wildly vary in having high and low shooting percentages over stretches as large as 2 seasons. That's what careers are made up of. Domi's 10% career percentage also includes unsustainably LOW stretches, so that measure itself isn't completely reliable to use. Every single player in the league will have several seasons well above average shooting percentages to contribute to their most productive seasons, and that is just how things work. Those seasons will change their "career percentages" accordingly. Year to year fluctuations of as much as 33% are EXPECTED, and any year, even the average ones, will have stretches of 15 games and 30% followed by 15 games at 4% within them, and even with that, Domi will wind up more-than doubling his goal totals. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

A couple things about this: 

I was still wrong because even if he regresses to his normal shooting percentage, he will DOUBLE his goal production on the season from last full season. 

This shooting percentage discussion gets used far too much, and isn't really an accurate representation of how things work. It is not that people shoot 10% on average over 10, 20, 40, and then full season long lengths, and then every once in a blue moon have times where they way out-perform or way under-perform and will soon be back to normal. In reality, players shoot all over the place and wildly vary in having high and low shooting percentages over stretches as large as 2 seasons. That's what careers are made up of. Domi's 10% career percentage also includes unsustainably LOW stretches, so that measure itself isn't completely reliable to use. Every single player in the league will have several seasons well above average shooting percentages to contribute to their most productive seasons, and that is just how things work. Those seasons will change their "career percentages" accordingly. Year to year fluctuations of as much as 33% are EXPECTED, and any year, even the average ones, will have stretches of 15 games and 30% followed by 15 games at 4% within them, and even with that, Domi will wind up more-than doubling his goal totals. 

I don't agree. Season long sh% totals might vary 33% but that's basically 10% v 13.3% as opposed to 10.1 compared to 28. Domi will regress significantly. Most players don't suddenly hit 300% better than their career average. One maybe 2 players a season do and then they regress. Sh% for the rest varies 2-4% which isn't a lot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, R_Dudley said:

Yeah I remember seeing him the first time the sabres played Arizona in 14-15 season and thinking he looked good. Taken 12th that year in round 1. Isn't that teh same year we took sam 2nd? 

I know who I would rather have right now... 

I recall being one of the few who thought Montreal got the best of that trade - younger and cheaper player with similar upside, I said at the time. He was drafted in the Risto/Zadorov draft. Darcy apparently had a deal on the table with Columbus to move up and draft him, but he didn’t fall far enough.

Domi’s points pace over this, the best 15-game stretch of his career, is about the same as what Sam put up over the last 35 or so games last season. Career-wise, they are almost identical in points.

In other views, Domi is a dick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Predictions:

- Both Reino and Sobotka respond well to being reunited and that line is effective

- the Sheary-Mitts-KO line also plays well and gets a bit more ice time than ERod-Sobotka-Reino

- Linus shines and the goalie controversy is on

I'm not trying to be a dck but I literally predict the exact opposite of all that happens

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

Love how undrafted EROD can handle 2nd line Center duty but our second overall pick who was drafted as a Center can't. What the deal with Sam? Will he be fine?

His offensive zone possession stats told me otherwise, he just had no wingers who could finnish.   Zemgus was his most talented winger when they tried him out at center.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...