Ristolainen, Feast or Famine

[Randall Flagg]

Risto got 1/3 of his ES minutes (~6) against LA with Kopitar. The team took 30% of the shots while he was out there, 40% of the scoring chances.
Dahlin got about 1/5 of his ES minutes against Kopitar's line, about 3.5 minutes, and the team took 64% of the shot attempts, 57% of the scoring chances while he was out there. But it's not like Dahlin's other opponents are easier, he got the Carter line instead for much of the rest of the time and still had those numbers.
Same game, McCabe had more than 1/3 of his ES minutes against the Kopitar line, and the team was still bad at shooting but was over 10% better than when Risto did the same thing, and we took 75% of the SCORING chances with McCabe on the ice. 

At Columbus, three guys on three different pairings were Bogosian, Risto, Dahlin, against the top line. Same splits:
Risto got 40% of his ES ice time against Panarin, 44% shot shares, 27% of scoring chances. Recall Panarin's goal in the second - a scoring chance that was bad positioning on Risto part - connecting the stats to the ice. 
Bogosian got 30% of his ES ice time against Panarin, Sabres had 56% of shot shares and 55% of scoring chances while this was happening. In less than two more minutes against Panarin than Bogosian had, Risto allowed 9 more scoring chances to that line. It was 12 in 7 minutes for Risto versus 3 in 5.5 minutes for the Bogosian pair. 
Dahlin's pair only got a couple minutes with Panarin, but didn't handleit well either: scoring chances were 1-3 in favor of the Panarin line, shots 5-2. 

Against Calgary, ~33% of Risto's minutes were against Gaudreau. Risto's line overall had 25% of the shots, 23% of the scoring chances. 
Bogosian had 43% of his minutes against the Gaudreau line. On the game he had 56% of the shot shares, 50% of the scoring chances. He played more minutes against the Gaudreau line than Risto, yet allowed half of the shot attempts Risto did in that time. 

I'm mixing a lot of stats here, and this isn't supposed to be a clear presentation of things, I'm just writing down as I look stuff up. But the point is, it's not as simple as Risto's game getting better with easier minutes. He's always going to have to play against good hockey players, and even teammates that I don't particularly like (Bogosian) APPEAR to my eyes to be playing smarter hockey and handling opponents better than Risto, and when I write these stats down, it appears that the stats show they're handling good players and lines better as well. I just firmly believe the mechanism for this is the decisions Risto makes with and without the puck, and I don't think that's a function of minutes or quality of opposition and a quick peak in the last two weeks at least doesn't disprove this idea. 

And with that my extended 2 hour lunch break is over 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

No.  The OT goal was the fault of Reinhart getting beat down 200' of ice and then Eichel not tying up Gaudreau after Gaudreau's first pass.  Eichel knew it, which is why he smashed his stick on the back of the goal.  That play had nothing to do with Risto, except for the fact that Risto carried the puck deep and was incidentally tripped by Moynihan in the corner in a 1-on-2, which led to the turnover.

I think I'm remembering the turnover that killed a minute of the power play, then.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

By the way, this is exactly the situation that led to Robyn Regehr getting his ***** kicked in all over this message board.  Ruff worked him like a horse, and while he was a major contributor to the team IRL and on paper, it didn't "pass the eye test," and many here made it their mission to bury him.  Same with Tyler Myers, who, after completely tearing down the team in front of him to be intentionally be league-worst, was ***** all over here and "just really needed a change of scenery." 

I guess the best defenseman is now your whipping boy.  Can't wait for the trade talk.  Oh, wait, it's already the first post of this thread.

 

 

Good call.  Get Beaulieu in there.

 

Stupid.

Dude.  Take it easy please.

 

37 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think Reinhart belongs on the ice in 3v3 OT, and he made a bad read on the play too. But Like dark says, Risto has carried the puck down from the point about 1,000 times in his NHL career, and I can picture one goal that happened because of it, in Calgary during his hat trick game in the 15-16 season. It doesn't work, and Jack had space, and the defenseman in 3v3 OT should NEVER find himself in a situation where he's sitting on his butt behind the other team's goal line. That is inexcusable. 

Furthermore, as a "we should have traded Risto 2 years ago" poster that this pushback (and IKP's) is geared towards:

It is a statistical fact that since Risto started being used as a top pairing defenseman, the team gets caved in when he's on the ice. Relative to his teammates and his bad-possession teams, not just relative to what is good. The team doesn't score, they don't take shots, they allow a lot of shots and a lot of goals. Of course, he is young, and should never have been put into this role in the first place. But 

-snip-

The first bolded part supports my vendetta against Reino, so I bolded it.

The 2nd one has some truthiness, but also some falsiness.  The defenseman in a 3x3 situation often carries the puck deep into the o-zone, and the forwards have to cover for him.  It's a fluid situation.  Now, one could argue that as such it calls for players with better instincts than Risto, but that's a different conversation than "the D should never go there."

It's also the case, as IKP has pointed out, that Risto was tripped on that play.  That does happen from time to time, and again, the forwards are supposed to cover.

More broadly, as to your points about Risto's numbers:  I think these simply have to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, simply because Risto has been, throughout his entire career, logging huge minutes, against the best players on the opposition, for by far the worst team in the league.  No defenseman who joined this misbegotten franchise at the outset of the idiotic tank era would have put up good numbers.  And no defenseman would've learned to play the game correctly.

Risto needs to be depended on less and brought along patiently.  He is still pretty young, and he's finally -- maybe! -- getting a chance to be coached competently in a relatively normal NHL environment. 

[Brawndo]

Rob Ray was on with Schopp and The Bulldog last year and when they were talking issues surrounding the team. 

One of the points that Ray brought up was whether or not Ristolainen is coachable. He mentioned the coaches would talk to Risto about a mistake he made, and within a few days, he was back making the same mistake. He also mentioned that when the players abandoned the game plan and started to do their own thing during a game , he was one of the first to do so. 

[darksabre]

9 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Rob Ray was on with Schopp and The Bulldog last year and when they were talking issues surrounding the team. 

One of the points that Ray brought up was whether or not Ristolainen is coachable. He mentioned the coaches would talk to Risto about a mistake he made, and within a few days, he was back making the same mistake. He also mentioned that when the players abandoned the game plan and started to do their own thing during a game , he was one of the first to do so. 

I've heard this sentiment from another source as well. 

[inkman]

Himbo

[Cityo'Rasmii]

15 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I've heard this sentiment from another source as well. 

Resisting cringing as hard as I can. . .

[IKnowPhysics]

43 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Dude.  Take it easy please.

 

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

It is insane to think

 

[Randall Flagg]

54 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Dude.  Take it easy please.

 

The first bolded part supports my vendetta against Reino, so I bolded it.

The 2nd one has some truthiness, but also some falsiness.  The defenseman in a 3x3 situation often carries the puck deep into the o-zone, and the forwards have to cover for him.  It's a fluid situation.  Now, one could argue that as such it calls for players with better instincts than Risto, but that's a different conversation than "the D should never go there."

It's also the case, as IKP has pointed out, that Risto was tripped on that play.  That does happen from time to time, and again, the forwards are supposed to cover.

More broadly, as to your points about Risto's numbers:  I think these simply have to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, simply because Risto has been, throughout his entire career, logging huge minutes, against the best players on the opposition, for by far the worst team in the league.  No defenseman who joined this misbegotten franchise at the outset of the idiotic tank era would have put up good numbers.  And no defenseman would've learned to play the game correctly.

Risto needs to be depended on less and brought along patiently.  He is still pretty young, and he's finally -- maybe! -- getting a chance to be coached competently in a relatively normal NHL environment. 

I believed this for a long time and still probably do deep inside, but I have the patience of a millennial and so I'm ready to move on, with the assumption that since nobody in two separate regimes has noticed that the current setup is an issue for the team and for Risto, nobody ever will. 

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I believed this for a long time and still probably do deep inside, but I have the patience of a millennial and so I'm ready to move on, with the assumption that since nobody in two separate regimes has noticed that the current setup is an issue for the team and for Risto, nobody ever will. 

It was kinda the same thing with Myers. We all kept hoping he was going to come along, but in reality he was what he was and he hasn't gotten any better. 

Risto is basically the same thing. I think what you see with him right now is all he'll ever be. Place him in the lineup accordingly. 

[darksabre]

Actually, statistically, he and Myers are pretty similar. The only difference is Myers is so injury prone. But they're basically 40 point, second pair, defensemen. 

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

It was kinda the same thing with Myers. We all kept hoping he was going to come along, but in reality he was what he was and he hasn't gotten any better. 

Risto is basically the same thing. I think what you see with him right now is all he'll ever be. Place him in the lineup accordingly. 

I agree.   The mistakes he makes are due to poor decisions on simple plays... things he should've learned as a peewee.   

If he hasn't figured it out 350 games into his career, I'm not sure he ever will.  

[...]

5 minutes ago, darksabre said:

 Place him in the lineup accordingly. 

And this is the thing about HCPH that drives me crazy.  Sometimes I think what he's trying to do with their system is brilliant.  Then there's usage and in-game calls that make me think he's texting Disco Dan.

[thewookie1]

If EDM were to offer us RNH for Risto, would you do it? 

 

I honestly have slowly been coming around to that. I’ve always been a huge Risto proponent but I’ve more recently begun to notice some of the boneheaded things he does in the Dzone after seeing how Dahlin already plays. Granted I would like to see Pilut in Buffalo for a few games before I’d do anything.

 

in the end I would want a hockey trade for Risto, no more picks and parts. 

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

If EDM were to offer us RNH for Risto, would you do it? 

 

I honestly have slowly been coming around to that. I’ve always been a huge Risto proponent but I’ve more recently begun to notice some of the boneheaded things he does in the Dzone after seeing how Dahlin already plays. Granted I would like to see Pilut in Buffalo for a few games before I’d do anything.

 

in the end I would want a hockey trade for Risto, no more picks and parts. 

I would do that in the offseason, when it becomes clear we can add another defenseman. RNH has been excellent the last 90 games or so. 

But right now, we need depth and bodies, even though I've posted that I think Pilut in the top six and Risto out would make our net top six perform better, and so that's not something I'd do today. 

There was an offseason rumor floating around that was something like Klefbom and 10 for Risto. I am pained that this could have been a thing, much less Hall-Risto

 

Edited October 31, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, inkman said:

I don't think moving him with 5 years and $5.4 million will be easy.  He's essentially Bogo when we got him. 

With taking into account his draft pedigree, age, offensive numbers, position, and the team he played for as he entered the league, I'm guessing there would be several interested parties for a reasonable $5.4mil cap hit. He could have fetched Hall a couple years ago, I doubt his trade value has tanked exponentially since then.

He's also a right shot which is always in demand, and the cap is always going up. 

Also, from all accounts, Bogosian was coveted by GMTM, he wanted Bogosian in that deal. 

Edited October 31, 2018 by Thorny

[Radar]

I maintain he's not a top pair defenseman. He has been in the past overrated. I do think he's a legitimate NHL defenseman but not a top pair guy.

 

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

No.  The OT goal was the fault of Reinhart getting beat down 200' of ice and then Eichel not tying up Gaudreau after Gaudreau's first pass.  Eichel knew it, which is why he smashed his stick on the back of the goal.  That play had nothing to do with Risto, except for the fact that Risto carried the puck deep and was incidentally tripped by Moynihan in the corner in a 1-on-2, which led to the turnover.

Dark has it. 

Risto should have made the oh-so-simple pass in the neutral zone over to Jack as they were skating up the ice, rather than skating himself into a literal corner where a turnover was especially likely. 

Possession is 9/10ths of the law in NHL 3 v 3 OT. 

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This.

I find it amazing that so many here are throwing Risto under the bus for the GWG, when Reino -- who earned less than 13 min of ice time in an overtime game last night, and has 1 goal in 12 games -- was beaten down the ice on the play by a defenseman.

Risto isn't a franchise defenseman, and they certainly should've traded him for Taylor Hall.  But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable part of this team.  It is insane to think they could ship him out and plug in Pilut and not suffer a major setback.

You bring up an interesting point about Reinhart. How do people feel about his start so far this season?

He has improved his production over his first 12 games last season, but not by much:

First 12 in 2017 - 2g, 2a, 4p

First 12 in 2018 - 1g, 5a, 6p

[Thorny]

Side note:

CAN EVERYONE IMAGINE HOW WE'D FEEL ABOUT OUR D IF WE DIDN'T LUCK INTO DAHLIN!

PSA: Take a moment to be happy about Dahlin. 

[Radar]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You bring up an interesting point about Reinhart. How do people feel about his start so far this season?

He has improved his production over his first 12 games last season, but not by much:

First 12 in 2017 - 2g, 2a, 4p

First 12 in 2018 - 1g, 5a, 6p

Here's how I feel. For a second overall pick he's a disappointment. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Speaking of Reino ...

He also has been misused and put all over the place ... wing ... centre ... back to wing.

He and Jack and Risto ... on down the list of our young and good players have all cut their teeth on a terrible team.

All of them will be fine.

[LGR4GM]

18 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Dude.  Take it easy please.

 

The first bolded part supports my vendetta against Reino, so I bolded it.

The 2nd one has some truthiness, but also some falsiness.  The defenseman in a 3x3 situation often carries the puck deep into the o-zone, and the forwards have to cover for him.  It's a fluid situation.  Now, one could argue that as such it calls for players with better instincts than Risto, but that's a different conversation than "the D should never go there."

It's also the case, as IKP has pointed out, that Risto was tripped on that play.  That does happen from time to time, and again, the forwards are supposed to cover.

More broadly, as to your points about Risto's numbers:  I think these simply have to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, simply because Risto has been, throughout his entire career, logging huge minutes, against the best players on the opposition, for by far the worst team in the league.  No defenseman who joined this misbegotten franchise at the outset of the idiotic tank era would have put up good numbers.  And no defenseman would've learned to play the game correctly.

Risto needs to be depended on less and brought along patiently.  He is still pretty young, and he's finally -- maybe! -- getting a chance to be coached competently in a relatively normal NHL environment. 

 I can't agree. He's a veteran player with over 350 games played. If he isn't smart enough to figure out how not pass the puck to the other team or to tie up his man in front then coaching isn't going to improve that. He isn't some 22yr old kid in his first or second full season. He's technically in season 6 of his career. He is the player he is. You might see a marginal improvement but some earth shattering epiphany isn't coming to Risto. He's a 2nd pairing defender who should not be counted on defensively. 

[Doohickie]

I didn't want to start another Risto thread, but I was thinking about where we are now, riding a 10 game win streak, with Risto scoring some of the biggest goals in that stretch.

The goal against San Jose was amazing.  Why does he even attempt something like that?

Some ideas:

• He's playing (slightly) fewer minutes, and it's making all the difference to him.
• The team is playing better hockey, so his every mistake isn't thrust under the microscope.
• After being a top pair D for most of his time here, he's hearing the footsteps of the other Rasmus bearing down on him, and he's not ready to give up top pairing just yet.
• He wants to show Dahlin what a "real" NHL defenseman can do.

I think the last two may be driving Risto.  We talk about competition at the bottom of the lineup, players playing for a spot, any spot, on the roster.  I think even if Risto knows that eventually Dahlin will eclipse him, he's not going to give up on being a top pair defender without a fight.  I think his sense of competition is driving him.  I can't say that's a bad thing.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Doohickie

[MJS]

That was a stupendous goal. So exciting.