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Ristolainen, Feast or Famine


LGR4GM

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6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe, maybe not.

What is his issue though? 

Great question. I know what he played like his rookie season that had me giddily expecting more and better to come.  

If I look at what changed since then;  

1.) I know he has been doing training each off season 2.) He has had several different coaches and presumably coaching styles. 3.) He may have continued to grow, mature andthat includes brain chemistry until I think I read 23 for males. 

My snap summary; The coaching style changes and his continuing growth and maturation have messed with his head and how he was playing as a rookie. Second his current training regimen doesn't match how he has grown or the style of play we are currently doing.

He is failing with simple puck handling that was not a problem when he came into the league. So unless he has also had concussions that we have not heard about and any lingering effects he quite possibly is not the player he was as a rookie or he we thought he would be.

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Here's Risto in a nutshell:

-Talented enough to eat big minutes

-Has not developed the offensive mind we had hoped for

He's not a goal scorer and he shouldn't be on the ice in situations where it is expected that defensemen will be scoring goals. Overtime is a perfect example. Risto doesn't belong there. 

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He is a talented NHL Dman.

He will look much better once he is in the role best suited for him, which the #3 for the Sabres.  He will be the top guy in the second pairing at some point, or he will not be the player he really is.  He has been forced into roles that are not best for him.

This will take time.  The other Rasmus will need to grow into the #1 and we will need to develop / find his partner.  Only then will Risto be where he is best suited.

Edited by N S
clarity ... larity
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Trade him IMO. He's young and someone will bite.

Assessment: We have the depth to replace him, move him ASAP.

Reinharts next on my list. If you can't drive play, or secondary production, it's a non starter. 2 year contract was the right call so far, we need consistency from him.

Assessment: Probation heading for double secret probation if this continues.

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His hockey IQ is low, and was never groomed because his job for his first 2 years was to shovel the puck out without any care for where it went, as long as it was out. He doesn't make the right decisions in coverage/positioning, in moving the puck, or in carrying the puck, and as a result for half of the game he's out there the Sabres are regularly outshot and outscored by a large margin compared to most NHL defensemen.

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The guy just turned 24, 4 days ago. He's had 3 years of crap coaching and 1 year of rookie coach PH. I think he still needs to have his roll defined and still needs to find himself. 

 

The guy is a horse, is never injured and about the only one who plays with grit and is a bit dirty. Can't just trade that away.

Edited by Ross Rhea
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He has very poor hockey IQ, makes bad decisions all over the ice.

He's a -10 through 12 games.   That's the second worst plus/minus in the ENTIRE league, and he's currently on a playoff team.      The only player with a worse +/- is on DET, a team with -16 goal differential.  

That said, it wouldn't be that big a deal if he was a first or second year player finding his way... but he's not.   He has over 350 NHL games under his belt and see +25min of ice time per night.     

I wonder how long this continues before Housley moves him to the second or third pairing.    It just cannot continue if they expect to win.

 

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IMHO, Ristolainen's biggest issues are that he has middle pairing talent with a HoF level of endurance playing on a team that he has been the best or 2nd best defenseman pretty much his entire career & that he came of age on a squad that was built to lose with noone available to teach him how to develop his game.

People have mentioned that he is essentially what the Sabres traded for when they picked up Bogosian w/ 5 years remaining on his deal, and though they both took separate roads to not quite living up to their draft pedigrees it is an apt observation.

He should be 2nd pairing getting ~23 minutes/ night facing the opponent's middle 6 but because this team has had a threadbare D talent pool, he still primarily gets top minutes against top competition.  Didn't see full game stats but Bogosian had more TOI through the 1st last night.  Hopefully Risto doesn't stay a 26+ minute muncher.

As Dahlin develops, he'll merit top pairing, probably next season.  He's played well w/ McCabe & though McCabeis IMHO a 4, I'd pair him w/ Dahlin 5v5.  Will beinteresting to see how soon Dahlin starts getting PK duty.  Glad that he isn't getting rushed into it yet.  When Dahlin can handle that usage, Risto can move to where his skills belong.

Having Pilut up as well will lessen the burden on the other 5 D and will allow for reducing Risto's usage as well as he could QB PP2.  

And though he's overpaid for the # of games the Sabres get from him, Bogosian isn't killing the Sabres cap & is playing well in his role (while he actually plays).  Risto has rarely been injured, so they'll actually get 75-82 games from him, and his salary won't be an issue.

Risto is being misused.  So was Byron.  He's clearly not a 1st liner but has settled into his role w/ the Habs well enough to wear an A.  If the Sabres do trade Rasmus, I fully expect them to lose the trade.  As such, continue to develop the rest of the talent & get Risto into his proper role as soon as they can.

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Taro's pretty close, I think.

According to the usage charts, Risto has far and away the highest QoC rel CF%.  He's being sacrificed to shelter Dahlin, Beaulieu, and Nelson.

When he was playing with Scandella last season, Housley stuck with Risto and Scandella through the season.  They struggled the same way, but out-performed every other pair.

This year, Housley took Scandella away from Risto because they performed similarly to last year, but Scandella-Bogosian performed better over a short period of time.  Who did that leave as Risto's partner? McCabe.  McCabe-Risto played fine.  Now that McCabe's injured, that leaves Beaulieu, Nelson, or Dahlin.  Which of those guys is going to perform against top lines?  Answer, according to the usage charts: neither.

Housely either needs to put Risto back with Sandella and ride them as the #1 pair and put Dahlin with Bogosian and do a wait and see, or he needs to keep Scandella-Bogosian together, elevate them to face the best competition, and drop a partner-handicapped Risto to the 2nd line.  Once McCabe gets back (day to day), he should be put with Risto on the top pairing again.

The  root cause of these issues is having three defensemen that need babysitting and not being able to step up to fill a single injury.

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4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

What is his issue though? 

I was gonna say.

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

His hockey IQ is low

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

He has very poor hockey IQ, makes bad decisions all over the ice.

I have not gone back and watched the replay (actually the clip I saw did not show the buildup), but my sense in real time last night was that the turnover in OT that led to the goal was because Risto wasn't where Eichel thought he should/would be. Given Risto's track record, I presume that he screwed up there.

 

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No.  The OT goal was the fault of Reinhart getting beat down 200' of ice and then Eichel not tying up Gaudreau after Gaudreau's first pass.  Eichel knew it, which is why he smashed his stick on the back of the goal.  That play had nothing to do with Risto, except for the fact that Risto carried the puck deep and was incidentally tripped by Moynihan in the corner in a 1-on-2, which led to the turnover.

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4 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

No.  The OT goal was the fault of Reinhart getting beat down 200' of ice and then Eichel not tying up Gaudreau after Gaudreau's first pass.  Eichel knew it, which is why he smashed his stick on the back of the goal.  That play had nothing to do with Risto, except for the fact that Risto carried the puck deep and was incidentally tripped by Moynihan in the corner in a 1-on-2, which led to the turnover.

This.

I find it amazing that so many here are throwing Risto under the bus for the GWG, when Reino -- who earned less than 13 min of ice time in an overtime game last night, and has 1 goal in 12 games -- was beaten down the ice on the play by a defenseman.

Risto isn't a franchise defenseman, and they certainly should've traded him for Taylor Hall.  But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable part of this team.  It is insane to think they could ship him out and plug in Pilut and not suffer a major setback.

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8 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

No.  The OT goal was the fault of Reinhart getting beat down 200' of ice and then Eichel not tying up Gaudreau after Gaudreau's first pass.  Eichel knew it, which is why he smashed his stick on the back of the goal.  That play had nothing to do with Risto, except for the fact that Risto carried the puck deep and was incidentally tripped by Moynihan in the corner in a 1-on-2, which led to the turnover.

None of that happens if:

A. Risto isn't on the ice in OT because he's not a goal scorer

B. Risto doesn't try to score a goal because he's not a goal scorer

There was no purpose to him carrying the puck all the way like he did. He completely blew that entire thing starting way back in his own in when he was just casually meandering up ice with no urgency. Instead of starting a breakout he just kinda fumbles around with the puck until he's covered too much ice to do anything other than carry the puck into the zone himself. You can literally watch the lightbulb go on in his head as he decides to skate it.

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And when was the last time Risto did ANYTHING below the faceoff dots in the offensive zone that warranted him thinking that it was the place he needed to be in overtime?

So I blame Phil too because Risto doesn't belong out there. 

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37 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

According to the usage charts, Risto has far and away the highest QoC rel CF%.  He's being sacrificed to shelter Dahlin, Beaulieu, and Nelson.

By the way, this is exactly the situation that led to Robyn Regehr getting his ***** kicked in all over this message board.  Ruff worked him like a horse, and while he was a major contributor to the team IRL and on paper, it didn't "pass the eye test," and many here made it their mission to bury him.  Same with Tyler Myers, who, after completely tearing down the team in front of him to be intentionally be league-worst, was ***** all over here and "just really needed a change of scenery."

I guess the best defenseman is now your whipping boy.  Can't wait for the trade talk.  Oh, wait, it's already the first post of this thread.

 

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:


So I blame Phil too because Risto doesn't belong out there. 

 

Good call.  Get Beaulieu in there.

 

Stupid.

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11 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

By the way, this is exactly the situation that led to Robyn Regehr getting his ***** kicked in all over this message board.  Ruff worked him like a horse, and while he was a major contributor to the team IRL and on paper, it didn't "pass the eye test," and many here made it their mission to bury him.  Same with Tyler Myers, who, after completely tearing down the team in front of him to be intentionally be league-worst, was ***** all over here and "just really needed a change of scenery."

I guess the best defenseman is now your whipping boy.  Can't wait for the trade talk.  Oh, wait, it's already the first post of this thread.

 

 

Good call.  Get Beaulieu in there.

 

Stupid.

Regehr and Myers were both average hockey players. Myers still is. So that point is a total loss. 

And you know what, Beaulieu would probably have been the better choice last night over Risto. 

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23 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

By the way, this is exactly the situation that led to Robyn Regehr getting his ***** kicked in all over this message board.  Ruff worked him like a horse, and while he was a major contributor to the team IRL and on paper, it didn't "pass the eye test," and many here made it their mission to bury him.  Same with Tyler Myers, who, after completely tearing down the team in front of him to be intentionally be league-worst, was ***** all over here and "just really needed a change of scenery."

I guess the best defenseman is now your whipping boy.  Can't wait for the trade talk.  Oh, wait, it's already the first post of this thread.

 

 

Good call.  Get Beaulieu in there.

 

Stupid.

Challenge Issued.......

10 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Regehr and Myers were both average hockey players. Myers still is. So that point is a total loss. 

And you know what, Beaulieu would probably have been the better choice last night over Risto. 

Challenge Answered!

?

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38 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This.

I find it amazing that so many here are throwing Risto under the bus for the GWG, when Reino -- who earned less than 13 min of ice time in an overtime game last night, and has 1 goal in 12 games -- was beaten down the ice on the play by a defenseman.

Risto isn't a franchise defenseman, and they certainly should've traded him for Taylor Hall.  But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable part of this team.  It is insane to think they could ship him out and plug in Pilut and not suffer a major setback.

I don't think Reinhart belongs on the ice in 3v3 OT, and he made a bad read on the play too. But Like dark says, Risto has carried the puck down from the point about 1,000 times in his NHL career, and I can picture one goal that happened because of it, in Calgary during his hat trick game in the 15-16 season. It doesn't work, and Jack had space, and the defenseman in 3v3 OT should NEVER find himself in a situation where he's sitting on his butt behind the other team's goal line. That is inexcusable. 

Furthermore, as a "we should have traded Risto 2 years ago" poster that this pushback (and IKP's) is geared towards:

It is a statistical fact that since Risto started being used as a top pairing defenseman, the team gets caved in when he's on the ice. Relative to his teammates and his bad-possession teams, not just relative to what is good. The team doesn't score, they don't take shots, they allow a lot of shots and a lot of goals. Of course, he is young, and should never have been put into this role in the first place. But 

a.) We've had two completely different coaching regimes continue to do it (It is NOT necessary - not every team has a defender that gets 26 minutes per game like this, so many spread their minutes out if they don't have a Norris winner) over the course of four years and not learn by noting that the team is handicapped for 30 of 60 minutes because of it, so there's no reason to expect this to stop any time soon unless Dahlin is a Norris candidate next year, which could happen but doesn't look like it will quite yet
b.) At Risto's age during these seasons, 20-23, there are plenty of defensemen that have been that age and have handled equally defensive minutes correctly (Slavin&Pesce, Jones, Provorov etc), if 2 or 3 fewer per game (which are largely PP minutes in Risto's case)

Even if we can be vague about Risto not handling the minutes well in a hockey sense over an endurance sense, over four seasons we absolutely can start to connect the statistical sh*tshow to things that he's doing and that these other defensemen DON'T do. 

I've seen Risto throw the puck blindly for no reason up the boards, to have it picked and turned into a glorious slot chance, at least six times in this young season, and I'm not even watching for it. I've seen about six goals against where his positioning was wonky and played a role in it being allowed. The patience that's being displayed by Bogosian (!!) on transition plays, to find the right move and not just directly hand it back to the other team, dwarfs Risto's regular effort. When I was counting our defensemen's various plays last season before the project fizzled out, Risto was like 200% worse than any single teammate in terms of just chucking the puck to the opposing defensemen in the NZ despite having 2+ teammates in passing lanes staring at him with their stick on the ice. And this stuff doesn't happen to defensemen that aren't as "good" as he is - guys like Nelson. It's not some force field exerted by good players that make Risto's numbers worse. It's stupid things he does that we yell at him for in the GDT 30 times per game. 

It feels like Risto is a good NHL hockey player because he has the physical strength to handle tough opposing forwards, the lungs and quads of a machine which let him keep getting back out there, and the PP QB ability (which has vanished this season) to get a lot of power play points, but the actual ES production for him and his team, both real and expected, is dismal, ranking well below 100th among defensemen last season in some categories likes ES points per minute (in a sample size of ~200). The reason why that physical package can't handle what others can at ~2 minutes less per game is in between his ears, and we neither have the sample size of him against reduced opponents (though if you go to NST and look at any other Sabres defenseman's numbers over this time even against specific hard opponents like the top lines in the Atlantic, he gets outperformed by bad defensemen on his own team) nor any reason to assume that his inability to think, position, pass at the speed of an NHL game will perform meaningfully better against slightly worse opponents (Hagelin and Brassard skate just as fast as Sid and Hornqvist/Guentzel) he'd see in a regular 2nd pairing role. He'd get less tired but the functional reason for our team doing miserable while he's out there doesn't stop when he's fresh at the beginning of games and seasons, it's what he's been doing since he was raised in a disgusting tank environment. 

The view of us is that, rather than giving a slightly smaller chunk of Sabres gameplay to bad hockey that has consistently been worse than what the team itself can put out, that there's absolute hard evidence that "addition by subtraction" is possible in this case as opposed to other situations where it's dubiously and vaguely proposed wrt ill-defined off-ice effects, which is happily accepted by many. 

Watching other teams and other defensemen in today's NHL, they are playing a different sport compared to Risto in terms of what gets done offensively (the rush from the right point down the boards into a board battle in the corner, Risto, ISN'T the only thing that D can do to create offense, don'tcha know?!) and defensively, say, at the line on zone entries (Risto is one of the worst in the league at breaking up zone entries at the blue line statistically). It's not that his replacement will be stronger and more physically capable of playing around with Ovie and Lucic, but those isolated incidents don't win teams games the way smooth, heady defensemen do, even if they're weak and tiny, and the things Risto does every day actively prevent teams from winning. 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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