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Lineup 2019-2020

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By the way.  What does Pilut’s playing more minutes already then Baloo tell you about Baloo’s future with the Sabres beyond this season?  It tells me that Baloo is a spare part and likely won’t be a Sabres next year.

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On December 7, 2018 at 10:51 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

By the way.  What does Pilut’s playing more minutes already then Baloo tell you about Baloo’s future with the Sabres beyond this season?  It tells me that Baloo is a spare part and likely won’t be a Sabres next year.

Pilut is the future fo sure but I sure like having a guy who is willing to drop the gloves occasionally to keep the other side honest. He isn't a goon in the truest sense of the word but he is the only guy we have capable of filling that role. I may be in the minority but I still believe you need some sort of a deterent. Either that or a great Power play which we just don't have.

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On 10/27/2018 at 7:42 AM, Sabre1974 said:

Think of Dylan Larkin? Long shot that any of them could be ready and do agree with you though. Could always live in hope though eh😀

Making any plan or decision around the possibility that mid-to-late first round picks are ready immediately is a fireable offense.

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In the Leafs Nation thread we have been talking about possible cap he’ll in the near future for us.

I doubt it.

Right now we have 8 forwards signed for next year (not including Berglund) for 29 mill (Jack, KO, Sam, Vlad, Sheary, Tage, Wilson and Mitts).  Larsson, Z, and ERod are RFAs.  Skinner and Pommers are UFAs.  Nylander and Olofsson are also signed for next season 863K and 768K respectively.

On defense we have 8 D signed and 2 RFAs.  The 8 signed are Hunwick, Risto, Scandella, Dahlin, Pilut, Guhle, Nelson and Bogo for 20.153.  Baloo and McCabe are the RFAs.  

Hutton is also signed for the next 2 seasons at 2.75.  

That’s 17 players for approximately 52 mill.  Add Nylander and Olofsson, re-sign Skinner (8.5 x 6 years) and Ullmark (2 x 3 years) and you’ve nearly completed the roster for 64 mill.  Re-sign two of Z, Larsson and ERod and your done for under 68 mill.  Re-sign McCabe maybe your adding 3.5 to 4.  I’m going with 3.5 because of his recent injury history and lack of high offense.

Beyond next season it’s a complete open slate.

In 2020-2021 we have 3 forwards (Jack, KO, and Nylander) for 16.812, Hutton for 2.75 and Dahlin and Risto for 6.325.  Add the suggested McCabe, Skinner and Ullmark deals and your at 40 mill for 9 players. That is a huge amount of room (approx 45 mill) to keep Reinhart, Tage and Mitts (assuming they develop as hoped) and complete the roster.  Guhle, Olofsson, and Pilut will need new deals, but I doubt any of them break the bank. Asplund, Borgen and maybe Davidsson or Pekar could also be ready for a roster spot.  Jbot will also likely have re-signed Erod, Larsson and/or Girgensons to at least 2 year deals this summer adding some less expensive talent to the mix.

My guess for 2020-21

Forwards: Jack 10, Skinner 8.5, Sam 7.5, KO 6, Tage 3, Mitts 5, Larsson 1.75, Girgensons 2, Asplund .845, Nylander .863, Olofsson 1.5 = 11 forwards for 47 mill.

Defense: Risto 5.4, Dahlin .925,  McCabe 3.5, Pilut 2.5, Guhle 1.25, Borgen .864 = 6 defense for 14.439

Goalies: Hutton 2.75, Ullmark 2 = 4.75

That team costs a fraction over 66 mill with room for a 4th line RW and depth forwards and D and plenty of room to re-sign Dahlin that off-season.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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On 12/7/2018 at 12:51 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

By the way.  What does Pilut’s playing more minutes already then Baloo tell you about Baloo’s future with the Sabres beyond this season?  It tells me that Baloo is a spare part and likely won’t be a Sabres next year.

I kind of feel bad for the guy.  He had a tough time here through this summer, but this year he's playing very well and will find himself the odd man out.

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With the deadline just weeks away coupled with our death spiral since November,  does this change the calculus for next season? 

I think it does.  Our bottom of the NHL performance in recent weeks has revealed some real flaws with this team.  It starts with a lack of a true 2nd line center.  It’s compounded by falloff in performance of two key D (Bogo and Scandy) and a lack of finish on any of our wingers outside Samson, Skinner and the improving Thompson.  

So while it’s literally possible to bring back this entire squad, some real change is necessary.  It could begin at the deadline,  if it’s move likely over the summer.

So far I’m pretty sure the Skinner gets re-signed.  Jack, Samson, Dahlin, Pilut, Mitts, Thompson and the 2 goalies will all be back.  After that, I can see scenarios where Jbot could move on from everyone else.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With the deadline just weeks away coupled with our death spiral since November,  does this change the calculus for next season? 

I think it does.  Our bottom of the NHL performance in recent weeks has revealed some real flaws with this team.  It starts with a lack of a true 2nd line center.  It’s compounded by falloff in performance of two key D (Bogo and Scandy) and a lack of finish on any of our wingers outside Samson, Skinner and the improving Thompson.  

So while it’s literally possible to bring back this entire squad, some real change is necessary.  It could begin at the deadline,  if it’s move likely over the summer.

So far I’m pretty sure the Skinner gets re-signed.  Jack, Samson, Dahlin, Pilut, Mitts, Thompson and the 2 goalies will all be back.  After that, I can see scenarios where Jbot could move on from everyone else.  

I think we are, or should be, a playoff team with the addition of solely a bona fide 2C. Gotta think it's #1 on Botterill's list. Most of the roster seems to fall into place after that, at least at forward.

On D we have a need on the right side still. I really don't think re-upping Bogo after next season is the answer. Adding a top-4 RHD is to me the biggest secondary need. 

Offseasons are always busy but it looks like Botterill will have less to do this offseason compared to the last, hopefully giving him the time to focus on adding both those players.

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With Bogo and Nelson only on 1 yr deals and Borgen a question mark, Jbot needs to add an RHD or two. 

Also with 9 healthy D, someone us getting traded at the deadline. 

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33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Bogo and Nelson only on 1 yr deals and Borgen a question mark, Jbot needs to add an RHD or two. 

Also with 9 healthy D, someone us getting traded at the deadline. 

Any thoughts on Brett Pesce? I've been on some other boards (mainly 'Canes) and talk is he "could" be available. Did a little research on him and seems pretty solid. Signed for about 3-4yrs at around $4M.

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Actually he has 5 years left a 4 mill per season.  He is a Jbot kind of player.  College educated. 

More of defensive D man but has some skill. I saw that Carolina is willing to trade him.  Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.  I don’t know about his skating.

Considering Waddell is the GM, we can probably get him for Baloo, a box of donuts, and O’Regan and a 2nd rd pick in 2021.

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36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually he has 5 years left a 4 mill per season.  He is a Jbot kind of player.  College educated. 

More of defensive D man but has some skill. I saw that Carolina is willing to trade him.  Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.  I don’t know about his skating.

Considering Waddell is the GM, we can probably get him for Baloo, a box of donuts, and O’Regan and a 2nd rd pick in 2021.

From what I've seen they say above average skating....I think we could push that draft pick to 2031, lol.

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56 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.

They do have more RHD and some decent prospects in Charlotte. With Faulk and Hamilton, he could be our McCabe (who can you move that has value and can help bring in a piece to help elsewhere).

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Assuming we sign Skinner, here's who is under contract next year up front:

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Thompson ??? ???

Sheary Mittelstadt Okposo

??? Sobotka ???

 

And on defence:

Dahlin Ristolainen

Scandella Bogosian

Pilut Nelson

Hunwick

 

Amerks: Nylander, Olofsson, Asplund, Wilson, Guhle, Borgen, Hickey

RFAs: Rodrigues, Girgensons, Larsson, Smith, Elie, Leier, Cornel, Malone, McCabe, Beaulieu, Dougherty

 

Rodrigues and McCabe clearly get re-signed.

We will almost certainly bring in at least one and preferably more top nine forwards from outside the organization

And you have to think they will leave a spot or two open for Guhle, Olofsson and others to graduate into.

 

I don't think Larsson, Girgensons or Beaulieu has a spot on the team next year — not ahead of guys like Smith and Guhle — and I would surprised if one or more of them isn't moved at the deadline

Edited by dudacek

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@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

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7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

Friedman mentioned that Okposo’s Concussion isn’t as serious as it could have been, but that his future is still in question 

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Just now, Brawndo said:

Friedman mentioned that Okposo’s Concussion isn’t as serious as it could have been, but that his future is still in question 

I just don’t see what the long-term benefit to him to keep playing.  He is going to get his money, but his healthy is always on a razor’s edge if he keeps playing.  How is that worth it?  Go on LTIR, take a management job under Jbot.  He is a smart guy and work toward a future in the game but off the ice.  He has 2 very young kids who need their Dad.

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39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

Agree with you guys that Kyle should quit, but until he does you have to pencil him in.

Here's the thing with Larry and Zemgus: if we add two good forwards from outside the organization, they are in the way. Assuming Tage, Casey, Sam, ERod, Jeff, Jack and Conor, there is no room for Smith, Olofson or anyone else to make the jump if Z and Larry are still around. And really, worst case scenario are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price? If we want to upgrade the forwards somebody has to go and they are the most likely, IMO.

Now if Kyle retires and Vlad is dumped, that changes things.

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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price?

 

IMO, yes.

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2 hours ago, Weave said:

 

IMO, yes.

Agreed.

Find them a 4R either from internal (Wilson on off wing or Sobotka (shudder)) or external (FA) and that line is set.

The big hole remains 2C which almost definitely has to come from outside.

Then find a 1/2R (depending on whether Reinhart plays with Eichel or not) & a 2L and the forwards are set.  

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart/?

? - ? - ?/Reinhart

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Thompson

Girgensons - Larsson - Wilson/Sobotka/?

With Rodrigues deserving to fill one of those ?'s or Thompson's slot.  Could see Olofsson starting in Sheary's slot out of the gate & then hopefully outplaying him & moving up to the 2.  Could see Smith or Wilson as the 13th F.

Would still like to see another RHD brought in.  Barring that, The D look like

McCabe - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Pilut/Scandella -Nelson

Hunwick

 

Which looks like there will be at least 1, if not 2, true hockey trades.  A D-man or 2 (1 of those listed & Guhle/ rights to Beaulieu being in play) & a couple of wingers (Sheary, Rodrigues, Girgensons, Wilson, Nylander, & just about any other Amerk F being in play) getting moved out.

It's good to see there will actually be competition at least for the 3rd line & 3rd pairing next year.  Depending on other moves, could have competition at 2nd pairing / 2nd lines.

Sadly, can't see them being able to get rid of Sobotka via trade so he'll be there.

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2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Agree with you guys that Kyle should quit, but until he does you have to pencil him in.

Here's the thing with Larry and Zemgus: if we add two good forwards from outside the organization, they are in the way. Assuming Tage, Casey, Sam, ERod, Jeff, Jack and Conor, there is no room for Smith, Olofson or anyone else to make the jump if Z and Larry are still around. And really, worst case scenario are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price? If we want to upgrade the forwards somebody has to go and they are the most likely, IMO.

Now if Kyle retires and Vlad is dumped, that changes things.

Why?

Jack, Jeff, Sam, Mitts, Tage, Erod and Sheary are 7/9 of a top 9.  Add a center (Duchene) and Olofsson and you have a complete top 3 lines.

L1 Jeff, Jack, Sam

L2 Sheary, Duchene, Thomspon

L3 Erod Mitts Olofsson

play with the wingers some, but you have a pretty decent lineup.

Now pick 4 or 5 of Sobotka, Z, Larry, KO (if available), Wilson and Smith.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why?

Jack, Jeff, Sam, Mitts, Tage, Erod and Sheary are 7/9 of a top 9.  Add a center (Duchene) and Olofsson and you have a complete top 3 lines.

L1 Jeff, Jack, Sam

L2 Sheary, Duchene, Thomspon

L3 Erod Mitts Olofsson

play with the wingers some, but you have a pretty decent lineup.

Now pick 4 or 5 of Sobotka, Z, Larry, KO (if available), Wilson and Smith.  

 

 

That's basically the same lineup we have right now plus Duchene.

It's only decent if we acquire a Duchene-calibre player AND Thompson, Mittlestadt and Olofsson make big leaps.

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I think you are starting to see Mitts come into his own now.... He is playing with a lot more speed... TT has a bit more to go and probably about 20 lbs to put on, but even with him its about experience and eliminating the bonehead plays... he has been better lately... looking at some more consistency... I keep Larry, Z, Wilson and Smith.  KO may be done... for his sake I hope he calls it a day.  In addition, though I like Sheary's speed, wouldn't mind to see him replaced... 

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

That's basically the same lineup we have right now plus Duchene.

It's only decent if we acquire a Duchene-calibre player AND Thompson, Mittlestadt and Olofsson make big leaps.

Isn’t that the point of developing players internally?  Also with Mitts and Thompson slotted correctly you’ll probably get better results.  

Also the addition of Duchene likely pushes Sobotka from starter to expensive door stop or even to a buy out/waiver and that is a huge step forward. Losing Z also eliminates one of the few legit fore checkers on this team.  By the way, I’m not saying that either Larry or Z aren’t reasonably easy to replace, I just saying it’s unlikely given their cap hit.

Other then Duchene or other capable Center, our biggest need at Forward is a top 6 PF. I doubt Thompson is ready but I don’t see another internal choice.  If Jbot gets one, that likely slots Thompson to 3rd line which would be great, but where do you play Olofsson and how does that play out cap wise with new expensive deals for Duchene/Center and Skinner? 

I also think our biggest roster issue is that we really have only one consistently defensively responsible defensemen and that is McCabe.  Scandella and Bogo should be able to bring that kind of play but don’t.  I think that is one of the keys to our bad play since the streak ended.  Having Risto, Pilut, Dahlin, Scandy and Bogo on defense leads to huge issues on the back end.  Risto has improved some and Dahlin will get there, but they bring other pluses.  At this point Bogo and Scandy bring nothing.  If I’m Jbot, my biggest priority is to get an RhD stay at home partner for Dahlin.  Get that and we’ll be a huge step closer.

Dahlin New Guy

McCabe Risto

Pilut Bogo

Nelson

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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