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Lineup 2019-2020

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The Skinner thread made me think forward til next season.  Of course this is way early, but the play of some of the kids in Roch, plus Skinner, Pommers and even finding roles for Larry and Z made me realize that Jbot could have some very tough decisions come July.

We only have 3 UFAs.  Moulson, Skinner and Pominville.  Only Moulson is history for sure.

We have 7 RFAs. Ullmark, Elie, Erod, Larry, Z, McCabe and Baloo.

We also have 8 guys with one year left on their current deals.  Injured players Wilson and Hunwick top this list.  Key players Sheary, Scandella, and Bogo are here.  Reinhart is the only RFA in the group. Nelson and Sobotka round out the list.

This puzzle is a lot harder then it looks.  Take for example Guhle and Pilut earning a shot.  So who leaves?  McCabe is in his way to being re-signed.   Baloo is the 7th D,  Hunwick the 8th and Nelson, a rare RHD has a year left at 800k while playing a steady game. Guhle and Pilut are LD and neither are physical players.  Of our 6 starters only Nelson seems at all vulnerable right now.

It’s also not so simple at forward. Dumping Larry, Z and Erod may seem obvious, but they are amongst our best PKers.  Erod is also one of best utility players and would return pretty cheap.  We also don’t want Olofsson and Nylander playing on the 4th line.

So is a very early guess

Skinner Jack Nylander

Sheary Sobatka Reinhart

Olofsson Mittelstadt Okposo

Erod Berglund Thompson

Wilson

McCabe Ristolainen

Dahlin Bogosian

Pilut Nelson

Guhle Hunwick

Scandella is the hard decision, but with one year left and a cheaper, younger McCabe in a similar role, I think Jbot trades Scandella possibly for a 3rd line center if he wants to also move on from Sobatka. I could also see Sheary being traded especially if we re-sign Skinner.  Sheary was brought in to be Jack’s winger.  However with Smith, Nylander and Olofsson all pushing from below, Sheary could be easily replaced.  Could Jbot move Hunwick and Sheary together? Also I can’t figure out what to do with Sobotka.  He seems to be doing a good job in the middle between Sheary and Reinhart. I love Pommers but someone has to go. Like I said before; hard choices.

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Wow,............pffffffff,............   💣     💥   ....   head explodes!

Love ya GA and all you bring to the table but not ready for going back to the future where we all have been living for the last to many years,

I want to enjoy a bit more of whats happening with the current cast of characters and what's going on this season before I vote anyone of the island... 

 

I'm sure there will be takers so carry on....    

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Interesting take GA, a lot will depend on how Tage develops, injuries cough cough Bogo, not sure of the need for Pilut at this point till he puts on some weight or can play forward.  Sabres are gonna need some more beef on the backend if Scandella is moved on from, but a better skater... The forwards are tough but you could always move Pommer back to fourth line and KO as well if young guns start pushing the issue.  The question is Larry and Z play well defensively together and Bergy has fit in nicely with their style.  Depends if Sabres find a center in the draft or Asplund steps up.

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The interesting thing is that the Sabres could probably bring back the entire current roster and stay under the cap for next season.  They’d have to re-sign Pommers to a cheap deal and get Skinner to take a little less to stay but it is possible.  

However we all know it doesn’t work like that.  Kids coming up need their opportunity and some middle class guys like Scandella need to be moved on to give kids their opportunity.  Also good guys that don’t quite fit the system will be moved for guys that fit the system. These reasons are why I see Scandella being moved this offseason.  He isn’t quite fast enough or young enough to be a core piece.  With Bogo, McCabe and Ristolainen we are pretty physical on the back end.  

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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I think Pilut, right now, is better than Baloo. So we can drop him. 

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10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Pilut, right now, is better than Baloo. So we can drop him. 

Without any hard evidence, I boldly proclaim that Pilut will be our 3rd best defenseman the second he comes up.

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This is all interesting information but we also have a significant amount of cap space that would suggest new players.  Obviously that would effect young players brought up and which RFA's and UFA's that are kept. 

IMO, we should not be bringing up so many youngsters every year.  I don't think you win by Guhle, Pilut and Oloffson coming up next year. 

I think I see the vision.  We're not used to this because it's how perennial winning teams remain contenders.  You build a system with desirable talent.  You use them to fill holes on your NHL club and use them to trade for established NHL players you identify that fill specific voids on your team year to year.  

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48 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Without any hard evidence, I boldly proclaim that Pilut will be our 3rd best defenseman the second he comes up.

But what do the #fancystats say?

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I think Nylander and Olofsson will be up for sure.  Asplund could push in a year or two as well.  What about CJ Smith if he has another strong year? 

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25 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

But what do the #fancystats say?

They say Ballou is our best Dman.

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Short term (looking next season & possibly 1 additional season) there's a need for a 2C.  Mittelstadt gets pencilled into that role sometime very early in the next decade, but there is a gap for now.

Depending on how Dahlin & Pilut progress this season, could definitely see Scandella being the key piece in something we haven't seen here literally for years - a true make both teams better right now hockey trade, which would most likely occur this off-season.

That piece that gets broughtin for that role could also be the designated bait to keep Seattle from scooping up 1 of the 2 goalies on this roster, neither of which they'll likely want to lose to the Scheissekopfen.

So incredibly nice to be only looking at an off-season that will likely only see 5-6 pieces change rather than our recent 1/2 the roster turnover summers.

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5 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Interesting take GA, a lot will depend on how Tage develops, injuries cough cough Bogo, not sure of the need for Pilut at this point till he puts on some weight or can play forward.  Sabres are gonna need some more beef on the backend if Scandella is moved on from, but a better skater... The forwards are tough but you could always move Pommer back to fourth line and KO as well if young guns start pushing the issue.  The question is Larry and Z play well defensively together and Bergy has fit in nicely with their style.  Depends if Sabres find a center in the draft or Asplund steps up.

I thought the same about Shane Gostisbehere when I 1st saw him play....now? You really can't ignore the talent of either one.

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What if one or two of our first round picks out of the 3 or 2 we get in next years draft if they are ready?. Unlikely  but would never rule it out.

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3 hours ago, Sabre1974 said:

What if one or two of our first round picks out of the 3 or 2 we get in next years draft if they are ready?. Unlikely  but would never rule it out.

We don't draft high enough for those picks to be immediately ready. But a year later... that could be interesting. 

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Think of Dylan Larkin? Long shot that any of them could be ready and do agree with you though. Could always live in hope though eh😀

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Based on early returns who stays and who goes? 

UFA’s 

1) Skinner - our leading scorer and looks good with Jack - Odds of being re-signed - 90%

2) Pominville - right now looks good on Jack’s other wing.  Calm leadership a plus.  Odds of being re-signed - 50%

RFAs

3) Ullmark - At worst is a solid backup and should be cheap to retain - re-sign 95% 

4)  Girgensons - with Larry and Berglund they are forming an excellent shutdown 4th line that is creating chances.  I would have said gone at the season’s start, but maybe earning a new deal. Wilson and Erod’s future could factor in here.  Odds right now 65%

5) Larsson - See Girgensons, but with slightly lower odds since not as fast or physical. 55%

6) Erod - I think we are better with him on the ice.  Not sure what Jbot thinks, but will be kept cheap.  re-sign odds 85%, but could lose out to a younger player.

7) Elie - likely will be sent packing once Wilson gets healthy - re-sign odds 10%

8.) McCabe - seems to be earning a long-term role here.  Liked by PH, fits the system, can play up or down and now adding some offense - Odds 95%

9) Baloo - 0%

2020 UFAs

10) Sheary - I think he’ll be traded this coming off-season to make room for Nylander.  Isn’t producing without Jack.  Re-sign odds 30%

11) Sobotka - Tough call right now, but I expect Asplund to take his job by the end of 2020.  Re-sign odds 10%

12) Bogo - Mr. Glass has helped the Sabres since his return, but needs to stay health and contribute to earn another deal.  I doubt he gets re-signed.  Odds 25%

13) Scandella - I think he gets traded this off-season to make room for Pilut and/or Guhle.  I like him and his game, but to many kids pushing from the below and McCabe’s development helps make him a good trade asset.  Re-sign odds 25%

14) Nelson - cheap, good skating and reasonably effective RHD are hard to find.  Expect another 2 year deal.  Re-sign odds 75%.

15) Wilson - Likely get to compete for a role in 2019-20,  but doubt he stays beyond that. Re-sign odds 5%

16) Hunwick - I’d be surprised if he ever suits up fo us other then in a dire emergency.  Doubt we can trade him.  May have to buy him out or send him down.  Re-sign odds ZERO.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Based on early returns who stays and who goes? 

UFA’s 

1) Skinner - our leading scorer and looks good with Jack - Odds of being re-signed - 90%

2) Pominville - right now looks good on Jack’s other wing.  Calm leadership a plus.  Odds of being re-signed - 50%

RFAs

3) Ullmark - At worst is a solid backup and should be cheap to retain - re-sign 95% 

4)  Girgensons - with Larry and Berglund they are forming an excellent shutdown 4th line that is creating chances.  I would have said gone at the season’s start, but maybe earning a new deal. Wilson and Erod’s future could factor in here.  Odds right now 65%

5) Larsson - See Girgensons, but with slightly lower odds since not as fast or physical. 55%

6) Erod - I think we are better with him on the ice.  Not sure what Jbot thinks, but will be kept cheap.  re-sign odds 85%, but could lose out to a younger player.

7) Elie - likely will be sent packing once Wilson gets healthy - re-sign odds 10%

8.) McCabe - seems to be earning a long-term role here.  Liked by PH, fits the system, can play up or down and now adding some offense - Odds 95%

9) Baloo - 0%

2020 UFAs

10) Sheary - I think he’ll be traded this coming off-season to make room for Nylander.  Isn’t producing without Jack.  Re-sign odds 30%

11) Sobotka - Tough call right now, but I expect Asplund to take his job by the end of 2020.  Re-sign odds 10%

12) Bogo - Mr. Glass has helped the Sabres since his return, but needs to stay health and contribute to earn another deal.  I doubt he gets re-signed.  Odds 25%

13) Scandella - I think he gets traded this off-season to make room for Pilut and/or Guhle.  I like him and his game, but to many kids pushing from the below and McCabe’s development helps make him a good trade asset.  Re-sign odds 25%

14) Nelson - cheap, good skating and reasonably effective RHD are hard to find.  Expect another 2 year deal.  Re-sign odds 75%.

15) Wilson - Likely get to compete for a role in 2019-20,  but doubt he stays beyond that. Re-sign odds 5%

16) Hunwick - I’d be surprised if he ever suits up fo us other then in a dire emergency.  Doubt we can trade him.  May have to buy him out or send him down.  Re-sign odds ZERO.

I agree with you on almost everything.....

Skinner, I think you are a little on the high side percentage wise....like it but, more hopeful that he WANTS to stay and at what price? I would realistically say about 75-80%.

To make room for Pilut and/ or Guhle....I would also consider Borgen. solid defensively, physical, and right-shot D-man....attributes we could certainly use up here. 

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On 11/1/2018 at 12:37 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Based on early returns who stays and who goes? 

UFA’s 

1) Skinner - our leading scorer and looks good with Jack - Odds of being re-signed - 90%

2) Pominville - right now looks good on Jack’s other wing.  Calm leadership a plus.  Odds of being re-signed - 50%

RFAs

3) Ullmark - At worst is a solid backup and should be cheap to retain - re-sign 95% 

4)  Girgensons - with Larry and Berglund they are forming an excellent shutdown 4th line that is creating chances.  I would have said gone at the season’s start, but maybe earning a new deal. Wilson and Erod’s future could factor in here.  Odds right now 65%

5) Larsson - See Girgensons, but with slightly lower odds since not as fast or physical. 55%

 6) Erod - I think we are better with him on the ice.  Not sure what Jbot thinks, but will be kept cheap.  re-sign odds 85%, but could lose out to a younger player.

 7) Elie - likely will be sent packing once Wilson gets healthy - re-sign odds 10%

8.) McCabe - seems to be earning a long-term role here.  Liked by PH, fits the system, can play up or down and now adding some offense - Odds 95%

9) Baloo - 0%

2020 UFAs

10) Sheary - I think he’ll be traded this coming off-season to make room for Nylander.  Isn’t producing without Jack.  Re-sign odds 30%

11) Sobotka - Tough call right now, but I expect Asplund to take his job by the end of 2020.  Re-sign odds 10%

12) Bogo - Mr. Glass has helped the Sabres since his return, but needs to stay health and contribute to earn another deal.  I doubt he gets re-signed.  Odds 25%

13) Scandella - I think he gets traded this off-season to make room for Pilut and/or Guhle.  I like him and his game, but to many kids pushing from the below and McCabe’s development helps make him a good trade asset.  Re-sign odds 25%

14) Nelson - cheap, good skating and reasonably effective RHD are hard to find.  Expect another 2 year deal.  Re-sign odds 75%.

15) Wilson - Likely get to compete for a role in 2019-20,  but doubt he stays beyond that. Re-sign odds 5%

16) Hunwick - I’d be surprised if he ever suits up fo us other then in a dire emergency.  Doubt we can trade him.  May have to buy him out or send him down.  Re-sign odds ZERO.

Pommers is going to be 36 very shortly.  He struggled immensely last year in the spring.   You don’t somehow get better with age, unless your trainer works at BALCO.  Cap space allows the GM a top six forward from outside.  Plus opportunities for Nylander, CJ or Olofsson.  Not enough room at the Inn.  Less than 10%

Berglund and Sobotka are under contract for 3 and 1 more respectively.  Makes Larsson and Griggs expendable.   Less than 20% each.

Like your thought on Scandella.  I think he or McCabe are moved in offseason.  

Dont sleep on Bogo.   I agree on the percentage, but money is a great motivating factor.  If he continues his leadship role I can see them keeping him with Pilut or Guhle to mentor.  Maybe a two year with a small haircut to 4.5 m AAV.

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5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

5) Larsson - See Girgensons, but with slightly lower odds since not as fast or physical. 55%

But Larsson is much better with the puck than Girgs.  I would swap the percentages there.

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I think there's zero percent chance of Skinner being here next year. He came here for the sole purpose of playing with Eichel to pad his stats. There's no way he doesn't go to free agency and sign for the most money he can get. We need to sell him at the deadline to the highest bidder. 

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If he's not signed by the deadline that will certainly happen.  Let's see if Bots can get'r done before then.

Yes, the money is important, but when you listen to Skinner, he wanted out of Carolina because he wasn't being used to his potential.  He's got that here, and this team is going places.  Do you take $8M a season and go to a team going nowhere, or take a little less to stay with a team that appreciates you and is on the rise?  We'll see.

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21 hours ago, Hank said:

I think there's zero percent chance of Skinner being here next year. He came here for the sole purpose of playing with Eichel to pad his stats. There's no way he doesn't go to free agency and sign for the most money he can get. We need to sell him at the deadline to the highest bidder. 

That may be true, but I don’t see him as a mercenary player. I think he came here to play with Jack and now sees a building program which he can be part of.  He Jack and Jason are the leading scorers in the NHL since they were put together Oct 20.  I don’t think he’ll simply throw that away.

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12 hours ago, Doohickie said:

If he's not signed by the deadline that will certainly happen.  Let's see if Bots can get'r done before then.

Yes, the money is important, but when you listen to Skinner, he wanted out of Carolina because he wasn't being used to his potential.  He's got that here, and this team is going places.  Do you take $8M a season and go to a team going nowhere, or take a little less to stay with a team that appreciates you and is on the rise?  We'll see.

Due the cap, Skinner will never play in Toronto.  Didn't he say he wanted to play closer to home?  If this is true, that has to increase the Sabres' chances of re-signing him.  Get it done, Botterill.   

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