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I’m not sure this is an accurate observation- please correct me if I’m off base here...

After watching most of the these opening games, I’m a bit appalled at how far off our skill players have been shooting on net.

I’m talking about those unpressured times where they have a great look, time and space and they shoot the puck two feet wide. Casey... Jack... all of them...

 So many times I get excited for a prime scoring opportunity, only saying to myself WTF what’s that? 

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I have no way to check against other teams, but I also get the same feeling that we're comically bad at doing this.

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The Sabres have 92 missed shots, sixth-most in the league.

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Shot totals, and the shot attempts that drive a bunch of fancy stats, are so shoddily handled and vary from building to building that it’s laughable.  

That said, we suck at putting pucks on net.  

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But last year they were 27th in missed shots — and tied with Montreal for the worst shooting percentage.

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1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

But last year they were 27th in missed shots — and tied with Montreal for the worst shooting percentage.

Again, these stats vary based upon what building you’re in.  A thing the fancy stats crowd (of which I’m half in, but because of the following can’t be all on) chooses to ignore is that stats vary and are not and never have been reliable.  

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5 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

Again, these stats vary based upon what building you’re in.  A thing the fancy stats crowd (of which I’m half in, but because of the following can’t be all on) chooses to ignore is that stats vary and are not and never have been reliable.  

I think the stats community has an incredibly clear picture of what their stats can and cannot do. (Note, I don't consider the Athletic/TBN writers I've seen part of this community.)

In fact, there are stats that tell us how meaningful the stats are 😉

Another note: I am not a member of the stats community. I am pretty bad at statistics, I am ashamed to say.

Edited by Randall Flagg

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It's worth noting that a lot of the work the stats community does is independent and not based on data other people are collecting. Like...stats people will sit there and watch every game in their sample to put together data sets for something they want to measure like missed shots. 

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 It who watches the watchers?  By no men’s is my argument that the Sabres aren’t awful, but I can’t shake the idea that the numbers underlying the stats aren’t horribly corrupted. And not out of bias either, just the vagaries ofwho is playing who else where.  

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On 9/22/2018 at 9:42 PM, Andrew Amerk said:

The team, as a whole, needs to practice shooting pucks on the net. 

Its a basic fundamental. Saw way too many shots going wide or over the net. Getting a shot on net not only increases the chances of it squeaking through a pad, but also rebound opportunities. Missing the net is useless. I can appreciate why it happens to a sniper, but we don’t exactly have many of those on the roster. 

As I stated in preseason. 

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7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think the stats community has an incredibly clear picture of what their stats can and cannot do. (Note, I don't consider the Athletic/TBN writers I've seen part of this community.)

In fact, there are stats that tell us how meaningful the stats are 😉

Another note: I am not a member of the stats community. I am pretty bad at statistics, I am ashamed to say.

Don't feel alone on bad at watching stats. I still think Corsi is or was an actual player 🙂

BBut the only stats I'm watching are the goals scored by our players, the netminder save % and the win loss column.

I am biased admittedly, but judging by those stats I watch, we are sucking hind tit again at a seasons start.

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9 hours ago, Sabel79 said:

 It who watches the watchers?  By no men’s is my argument that the Sabres aren’t awful, but I can’t shake the idea that the numbers underlying the stats aren’t horribly corrupted. And not out of bias either, just the vagaries ofwho is playing who else where.  

I'll date myself here. Jim Lorentz the color analyst often said he put no stock in the shots on goal totals in various arenas, including the Aud/Crossroads I assume. Now, maybe things have gotten better, but there's no doubt in my mind that the stats are cooked in a lot of places. Nassau Coliseum was well known for inflating hits for the home team. And it makes sense. Let the road team look up and see that they're being outshot 7-1 in the early going — maybe it's really 5-3, but the seed has been planted.

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There’s an old story about Bobby Clarke in Philly, trying to trade a defenseman.  I forget who.  Anyway, he told the stats guys to send the player in question’s hit totals through the roof so as to increase his value (again, back when this was valued).  I can’t imagine much has changed.  

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I think the eye test says they suck at shooting.

I would hope it's because they are trying too hard to pick the corners, etc. and not just having really bad aim.  

Either way, get the pucks on net.

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Yes, the Sabres are bad at shooting.  And strangely, I think Jack's one glaring weakness is his lack of shooting accuracy but that is just my eye-test so it may be all wrong.

 

Regarding the accuracy of the stats collected, I am certain that it has improved.  Teams now analytics staff, not just one 'nerd'  that knows Excel, and those staffs need accurate data to supply good scouting to the coach and GM.  I imagine that they can't collect all their own data so they use the league data and some other specific sites and it is in everybody's interest that the data be pretty solid.  I'm sure it's not perfect but definitely improving.

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1 minute ago, Mig_22 said:

Yes, the Sabres are bad at shooting.  And strangely, I think Jack's one glaring weakness is his lack of shooting accuracy but that is just my eye-test so it may be all wrong.

 

Regarding the accuracy of the stats collected, I am certain that it has improved.  Teams now analytics staff, not just one 'nerd'  that knows Excel, and those staffs need accurate data to supply good scouting to the coach and GM.  I imagine that they can't collect all their own data so they use the league data and some other specific sites and it is in everybody's interest that the data be pretty solid.  I'm sure it's not perfect but definitely improving.

I don't know what excuse the Sabres would have for not having the staff to collect whatever data they want. I also don't know why that data wouldn't be proprietary. In other words, release some basic, knowingly fudged but realistic, data to the fans, and keep the rest to yourself.

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30 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I don't know what excuse the Sabres would have for not having the staff to collect whatever data they want. I also don't know why that data wouldn't be proprietary. In other words, release some basic, knowingly fudged but realistic, data to the fans, and keep the rest to yourself.

I read somewhere that they had 3 analysts on the payroll.  I don't know if it's a good use of time for them to actually do the grunt work of collecting the standard stats by watching the game instead of buying it from stat collectors and augmenting it with public data and their own targeted work.  That's how I would organize it as a database builder.  But you might be right and they do all of their data collection themselves.  One note though is that that public data now has a LOT more attention on it from writers and the league and that crowd-sourcing will greatly enhance the data quality.

 

And you are very correct that the teams keep all their own juicy stuff and don't release it.  Why would they, right?

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2 hours ago, Mig_22 said:

And strangely, I think Jack's one glaring weakness is his lack of shooting accuracy but that is just my eye-test so it may be all wrong.

Took some heat on here last season after suggesting this.

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18 hours ago, Weave said:

Took some heat on here last season after suggesting this.

He certainly missed an opportunity yesterday when he was in close alone, but was that one lack of accuracy or did Quick get the best of him?  I think it was the latter.  I think Quick showed him an opening and closed it really fast.

Bogosian on the other hand, that was an accurate shot!

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17 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I was positive that Quick saved that shot

I was positive he should've saved it.

But very glad he didn't.

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3 hours ago, Eleven said:

He certainly missed an opportunity yesterday when he was in close alone, but was that one lack of accuracy or did Quick get the best of him?  I think it was the latter.  I think Quick showed him an opening and closed it really fast.

Bogosian on the other hand, that was an accurate shot!

That Bogo shot was pure luck 

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6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

I was positive he should've saved it.

But very glad he didn't.

I was talking about the Eich one - I thought it was a good and accurate shot, but that Quick made the save, but now maybe the shot actually missed the net.

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4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I was talking about the Eich one - I thought it was a good and accurate shot, but that Quick made the save, but now maybe the shot actually missed the net.

Oooops.  

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4 hours ago, darksabre said:

That Bogo shot was pure luck 

Why would you say that?  Do you not think an NHL-level defenseman (and a highly-selected one at that) has the skill to figure out where the goalie won't be and put the puck there?

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