MattPie Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) It's back for another year! Dearest hockey gods, may I not have to update the title for days or weeks at a time! How this works: despite the relatively high gate to get into the playoffs last season, I'm sticking with 94 points as the bubble to make the playoffs. In a season, there are 164 points available, 94 is the bubble, so a team can "afford" to lose 70 points and still possibly make the playoffs. The Sabres lost Thursday, so they're down 2 points to 68. Changing to 97 points. 94 just doesn't feel right any more. Season-beginning math, to be updated in future posts as the wheel of time turns: Games remaining (GR): 82 Points (P): 0 Season Point Pace: PPG * 82 Points Lost (PL): 2* (82 - GR) - P Points per game to reach 94 (PPG97? (97-P)/GR = 1.146 PPG Relative to PPG94 (RPPG97? PPG97 - (97/164) Win (or loss!) Streak to reach Season PPG94 (S2PPG97? ((2*(82-GR)*(97/164))-P)/2 GP W L OTL P PPG SPP PL PPG94 RPPG97 S2PPG97 57 28 22 7 63 1.105 90.6 51 1.360 0.187 5.4 58 28 23 7 63 1.086 89.1 53 1.417 0.233 6.9 59 28 24 7 63 1.068 87.6 55 1.478 0.278 8.3 60 28 24 8 64 1.067 87.5 56 1.500 0.289 8.5 61 29 24 8 66 1.082 88.7 56 1.476 0.267 7.5 Edited February 28, 2019 by MattPie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 I have hated this thread for years ? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthEbriate Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) So... there are neither beginnings nor an endings to the Sabres Lost Point Countdown, but this was a beginning. Edited October 7, 2018 by DarthEbriate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said: So... there are neither beginnings nor an endings to the Sabres Lost Point Countdown, but this was a beginning. Maybe, just maybe, it was the end of the lead up to the beginning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Spoiler: They miss the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) GR P PPG PA PL PPG94 RPPG94 94 pace S2PPG94 82 0 0.000 164 0 1.146 1.000 0.0 0.0 81 0 0.000 162 2 1.160 1.000 1.1 0.6 80 2 1.000 160 2 1.150 0.130 2.3 0.1 I'm fancy this year, I used to calculate these using an RPN calculator app on my phone by hand each time I posted. Edited October 7, 2018 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Those look like 'fancy stats' to me. I like the old way were you just count down to zero. That said, maybe you should just hide this thread someplace, as I don't think we will need it this year ... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2018 Fun fact: If the Sabres win tonight, they'll still be just under 94 point pace. If they lose, they'd have to win the next 3 before they'll be back above 94PP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted October 19, 2018 Report Share Posted October 19, 2018 9 hours ago, MattPie said: Fun fact: If the Sabres win tonight, they'll still be just under 94 point pace. If they lose, they'd have to win the next 3 before they'll be back above 94PP. Onward ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabills Posted October 19, 2018 Report Share Posted October 19, 2018 On 10/7/2018 at 10:35 AM, DarthEbriate said: So... there are neither beginnings nor an endings to the Sabres Lost Point Countdown, but this was a beginning. Seasons come and pass, leaving memories of points lost that become legend. Legends fade to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the season comes to an end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatorman0519 Posted October 20, 2018 Report Share Posted October 20, 2018 I do know this...in a new season of explosive scoring we have gone backwards....shouldn't be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted October 20, 2018 Report Share Posted October 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said: I do know this...in a new season of explosive scoring we have gone backwards....shouldn't be But our defenseman are scoring at 400 times the rate they did last year!! At least I think it's 400 percent more... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 The swings are still pretty big right now. Sabres are at a 91-point season pace after the win in Anaheim. Another win and that's up to a 98 point pace, a tie it's 90 point pace, and a loss they're back down to 82 points for the season. MUST WIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted October 26, 2018 Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 12:37 AM, MattPie said: Fun fact: If the Sabres win tonight, they'll still be just under 94 point pace. If they lose, they'd have to win the next 3 before they'll be back above 94PP. We are back on pace!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said: We are back on pace!! I have to say I'm surprised and happy. It's been a long time since I'd even consider it possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted October 26, 2018 Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 Is this the replacement for the charts? Do we still have the charts somewhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 26, 2018 Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ... said: Is this the replacement for the charts? Do we still have the charts somewhere? You have to give @carpandean CPR first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, ... said: Is this the replacement for the charts? Do we still have the charts somewhere? I've considered resurrecting the charts, but I don't think I'm committed enough to keep up. For now, this is probably the best you'll get. ? Realistically, until the last maybe 10 games of the season, "The Pace" is as good an indicator as any. We pretty much know the #8 seed will have between 92 - 96 points, tracking the nearby teams in the standings is fun, but not really required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted October 29, 2018 Report Share Posted October 29, 2018 On 10/25/2018 at 11:56 PM, MattPie said: I've considered resurrecting the charts, but I don't think I'm committed enough to keep up. For now, this is probably the best you'll get. ? Realistically, until the last maybe 10 games of the season, "The Pace" is as good an indicator as any. We pretty much know the #8 seed will have between 92 - 96 points, tracking the nearby teams in the standings is fun, but not really required. No update? Lost one point, does that leave us on the outside looking in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted October 29, 2018 Report Share Posted October 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said: No update? Lost one point, does that leave us on the outside looking in? My rudimentary math (not my strongest subject) puts us on a 97 point pace. We are still in the thick of it. Maybe it is 'NS math', though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted October 29, 2018 Report Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, N S said: My rudimentary math (not my strongest subject) puts us on a 97 point pace. We are still in the thick of it. Maybe it is 'NS math', though. I just hope we see improvement as the year goes on and do better than that pace. Dahlin and Mittelstadt need to improve. (not being critical just thinking in the overall scheme of things). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2018 3 hours ago, N S said: My rudimentary math (not my strongest subject) puts us on a 97 point pace. We are still in the thick of it. Maybe it is 'NS math', though. Yep, you got it. The season-point-pace is 97Rock (96.9). 3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said: No update? Lost one point, does that leave us on the outside looking in? OTLs lose a little ground, but only 0.15 points as the team needs to average 1.15 points per game to hit 94. To put it another way, the team could go per 10 games 2-0-8 for the entire season and hit 98 points. Similarly, 4-2-4 would yield 12 points per ten games and hit 98. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted November 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Nice win, need to win the next one too to get back onto pace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted November 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 10/7/2018 at 6:47 AM, MattPie said: It's back for another year! Dearest hockey gods, may I not have to update the title for days or weeks at a time! I am prophetic. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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