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Sabres Lost Point Countdown 2018-19: 7


MattPie

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Got around to updating. The Sabres have been under 94-point pace for the last three games, and given the gap between #8 and #9 (Buffalo) and the fall off for the rest of the east, I'd bet on 94 points not being enough this year. It's not dire in itself, win the next game to get back near 94-pace, and then maintain a playoff pace (12 points per 10 games) for the rest of the season and it's possible. The play before The Streak and after The Streak gives me little confidence that the team can do that. If they lose 3-4 of the next 5, and it becomes pretty difficult to climb back.

Edited by MattPie
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  • 1 month later...

Big news, changing the math to 97 points. In recent years, 97 is safe, 94 certainly isn't. Here's the full sheet using 97 as the baseline up to the 5-2 win over the Caps.

GP W L OTL P PPG SPP PL PPG94 RPPG97 S2PPG97
0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 1.183 #DIV/0! 0.0
1 0 1 0 0 0.000 0.0 2 1.198 1.000 1.4
2 1 1 0 2 1.000 82.0 2 1.188 0.158 0.4
3 2 1 0 4 1.333 109.3 2 1.177 -0.133 -0.6
4 2 2 0 4 1.000 82.0 4 1.192 0.161 0.9
5 3 2 0 6 1.200 98.4 4 1.182 -0.015 -0.1
6 3 3 0 6 1.000 82.0 6 1.197 0.165 1.3
7 3 4 0 6 0.857 70.3 8 1.213 0.294 2.8
8 4 4 0 8 1.000 82.0 8 1.203 0.169 1.8
9 5 4 0 10 1.111 91.1 8 1.192 0.068 0.8
10 6 4 0 12 1.200 98.4 8 1.181 -0.016 -0.2
11 6 4 1 13 1.182 96.9 9 1.183 0.001 0.0
12 6 4 2 14 1.167 95.7 10 1.186 0.016 0.2
13 6 5 2 14 1.077 88.3 12 1.203 0.105 1.7
14 7 5 2 16 1.143 93.7 12 1.191 0.041 0.7
15 7 6 2 16 1.067 87.5 14 1.209 0.118 2.1
16 8 6 2 18 1.125 92.3 14 1.197 0.060 1.1
17 9 6 2 20 1.176 96.5 14 1.185 0.007 0.1
18 10 6 2 22 1.222 100.2 14 1.172 -0.043 -0.9
19 11 6 2 24 1.263 103.6 14 1.159 -0.090 -1.9
20 12 6 2 26 1.300 106.6 14 1.145 -0.135 -2.9
21 13 6 2 28 1.333 109.3 14 1.131 -0.179 -3.9
22 14 6 2 30 1.364 111.8 14 1.117 -0.221 -4.9
23 15 6 2 32 1.391 114.1 14 1.102 -0.263 -5.9
24 16 6 2 34 1.417 116.2 14 1.086 -0.304 -6.9
25 17 6 2 36 1.440 118.1 14 1.070 -0.346 -7.9
26 17 6 3 37 1.423 116.7 15 1.071 -0.328 -7.6
27 17 7 3 37 1.370 112.4 17 1.091 -0.256 -6.2
28 17 8 3 37 1.321 108.4 19 1.111 -0.189 -4.7
29 17 8 4 38 1.310 107.4 20 1.113 -0.177 -4.5
30 17 9 4 38 1.267 103.9 22 1.135 -0.116 -3.1
31 18 9 4 40 1.290 105.8 22 1.118 -0.154 -4.1
32 19 9 4 42 1.313 107.6 22 1.100 -0.193 -5.1
33 19 9 5 43 1.303 106.8 23 1.102 -0.182 -4.9
34 20 9 5 45 1.324 108.5 23 1.083 -0.222 -5.9
35 20 10 5 45 1.286 105.4 25 1.106 -0.162 -4.4
36 20 10 5 45 1.250 102.5 27 1.130 -0.106 -3.0
37 21 11 5 47 1.270 104.2 27 1.111 -0.143 -4.0
38 22 11 5 49 1.289 105.7 27 1.091 -0.182 -5.0
39 22 12 5 49 1.256 103.0 29 1.116 -0.126 -3.5
40 22 13 5 49 1.225 100.5 31 1.143 -0.072 -2.1
41 22 13 6 50 1.220 100.0 32 1.146 -0.064 -1.8
42 22 14 6 50 1.190 97.6 34 1.175 -0.013 -0.4
43 23 14 6 52 1.209 99.2 34 1.154 -0.048 -1.4
44 23 15 6 52 1.182 96.9 36 1.184 0.002 0.1
45 23 16 6 52 1.156 94.8 38 1.216 0.050 1.5
46 23 17 6 52 1.130 92.7 40 1.250 0.096 3.0
47 23 18 6 52 1.106 90.7 42 1.286 0.139 4.4
48 24 18 6 54 1.125 92.3 42 1.265 0.110 3.4
49 25 18 6 56 1.143 93.7 42 1.242 0.080 2.4
50 25 19 6 56 1.120 91.8 44 1.281 0.126 3.9
51 25 20 6 56 1.098 90.0 46 1.323 0.170 5.3
52 26 20 6 58 1.115 91.5 46 1.300 0.142 4.3
53 26 20 7 59 1.113 91.3 47 1.310 0.150 4.5
54 27 20 7 61 1.130 92.6 47 1.286 0.121 3.5
55 27 21 7 61 1.109 90.9 49 1.333 0.168 5.0
56 28 21 7 63 1.125 92.3 49 1.308 0.140 4.0
57 28 22 7 63 1.105 90.6 51 1.360 0.187 5.4
58 28 23 7 63 1.086 89.1 53 1.417 0.233 6.9
59 28 24 7 63 1.068 87.6 55 1.478 0.278 8.3
60 28 24 8 64 1.067 87.5 56 1.500 0.289 8.5
61 29 24 8 66 1.082 88.7 56 1.476 0.267 7.5
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The Sabres now need another 10-game streak to get back to 97-point pace, then need to win 5 of the remaining 8 games to maintain.

15-2-1.

Who knows, maybe this is the first year in a few that someone sneaks in at 93 points. That's a cushy 13-4-1 from here.

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16 minutes ago, MattPie said:

The Sabres now need another 10-game streak to get back to 97-point pace, then need to win 5 of the remaining 8 games to maintain.

15-2-1.

Who knows, maybe this is the first year in a few that someone sneaks in at 93 points. That's a cushy 13-4-1 from here.

We've won about 35% of our game since the new calendar year.

I think that pace will remain until the end of the season.

Get something like 2 out of a possible 6 points for every 3 games we play.

19 games left; we'll probably win 6 or 7 more games all year.

 

 

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