Buffalo Sabres Predictions

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Whoops. My fingers decided to reverse what my brain was saying ?

Fixed.

Also, let the record show that WildCard blatantly plagiarized my goalie predictions and didn't catch this mistake:

 

Shows what I get for putting my trust in you ?

[Mustache of God]

Team Predictions
Sabres' Final Record: 47-30-5 (99 points), 3rd in Atlantic
Total Goals Scored: 263
Total Goals Allowed: 229
Power Play Ranking: 7th-13th
PK Ranking: Mid Range
All-Star Players: Jack Eichel
Award Winners/Finalists: Rasmus Dahlin - Calder

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.) Jack Eichel - 44
2.) Jeff Skinner - 40
3.) Alex Nylander - 26
Top 3 point totals
1.) Jack Eichel - 92
2.) Sam Reinhart - 69
3.) Jeff Skinner - 65

Sabres' best rookie: Dahlin
Biggest surprise: Bogosian plays 76 games
Biggest disappointment: Kyle Okposo

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark: Ullmark emerges as the starter by mid-season leading the team to the promise land of the playoffs
Hutton: Hutton starts hot, goes cold, Ullmark takes the reigns mid-season
other(injuries): 

 

[Marions Piazza]

5 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Team Predictions
Sabres' Final Record: 47-30-5 (99 points), 3rd in Atlantic
Total Goals Scored: 263
Total Goals Allowed: 229
Power Play Ranking: 7th-13th
PK Ranking: Mid Range
All-Star Players: Jack Eichel
Award Winners/Finalists: Rasmus Dahlin - Calder

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.) Jack Eichel - 44
2.) Jeff Skinner - 40
3.) Alex Nylander - 26
Top 3 point totals
1.) Jack Eichel - 92
2.) Sam Reinhart - 69
3.) Jeff Skinner - 65

Sabres' best rookie: Dahlin
Biggest surprise: Bogosian plays 76 games
Biggest disappointment: Kyle Okposo

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark: Ullmark emerges as the starter by mid-season leading the team to the promise land of the playoffs
Hutton: Hutton starts hot, goes cold, Ullmark takes the reigns mid-season
other(injuries): 

 

Really shooting for the moon there with the goal predictions, love the optimism, but, I'd be willing to bet we have no one over 35 goals and no one over 80 points

[Mustache of God]

3 minutes ago, Marions Piazza said:

Really shooting for the moon there with the goal predictions, love the optimism, but, I'd be willing to bet we have no one over 35 goals and no one over 80 points

Sure am! Prediction threads are time for unbridled enthusiasm. Imagine how much fun ti will be if we have multiple 40 goal scorers and one or more of the rookies can make an impact? Surely this is the year of the Buffalo Sabre.

[Marions Piazza]

1 minute ago, Mustache of God said:

Sure am! Prediction threads are time for unbridled enthusiasm. Imagine how much fun ti will be if we have multiple 40 goal scorers and one or more of the rookies can make an impact? Surely this is the year of the Buffalo Sabre.

hahaha well then, I'm with you!  Can't wait for Thursday

[GASabresIUFAN]

I have reworked my goal spreadsheet and have come to the following conclusion.  If this team stays healthy I see 247 goals.  Here is the breakdown. Pts in ( )

Eichel 32 (87), Skinner 37 (67), Reinhart 27 (69)

Sheary 18 (38), Berglund 12 (32), Thompson 16 (36)

Sobotka 10 (28),  Mittelstadt 17 (43), Okposo 15 (35)

Girgensons 7 (17), ERod 7 (21), Pommers 9 (23)

other 7 (12)

Scandella 5 (21), Risto 10 (47)

McCabe 3 (15), Dahlin 7 (24)

Baloo 2 (12), Nelson 5 (15)

other 1 (5)

If they score 247 goals, this team will be in contention for a playoff spot as long as they can limit the goals against.  Are the additions of Hutton and Dahlin on the back end enough to drop our GA by 40 goals to put us in a playoff spot?  I doubt it.  

37-35-10 84 pts 5th in the Atlantic 247 GF, 258 GA

 

[DarthEbriate]

On 10/1/2018 at 9:00 AM, Mustache of God said:

Sure am! Prediction threads are time for unbridled enthusiasm. Imagine how much fun ti will be if we have multiple 40 goal scorers and one or more of the rookies can make an impact? Surely this is the year of the Buffalo Sabre.

My enthusiasm is bridled. But after watching a couple preseason games, I think Hutton's puck-moving ability is going to dynamically improve this team. Once every few games, he's going to generate a scoring chance, and every game he's going to nullify a forecheck on his own.

The other thing that really excites me is the replacement of the goalie tandem. Ullmark and Hutton (both in limited roles) posted plus .93 save percentages last season. Is that sustainable? No, they're not Hasek and this lineup is going to struggle defensively. But --- the Sabres had a sub .900 save percentage as a team last season. That won't happen. If we get good goaltending and are at .915 as a team vs. sub-.900, that's a 50-goal difference (based on last season's 2400 shots allowed) over the course of the season. That's what I'm hoping for --- a modestly improved (and more fun) team in front of a vastly improved goalie tandem.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by DarthEbriate

[IKnowPhysics]

Team Predictions
Sabres' Final Record: 36-35-11
Total Goals Scored: 221
Total Goals Allowed: 242

Based on the offseason moves, we should be able to make back 30 goals in goal differential.  That includes Hutton and much of the bottom six adjustment.  Adding Dahlin, if he plays Risto-like, could yield another 6 goals in differential.  Reinhart playing like the dickens for a full 82 games and producing 30 goals would be another 6 (actual 2nd half pace calc = +14 goals, but I don't think Reinhart scores 38).  Jack elevating his game to 30 goals would be another 5.  I'm gonna hand-wavingly give each of six defensemen an improvement of 2 goals (maybe +1GF, -1GA) each based on a Phil Housley and Steve Smith coaching bonus for another 12.

If we take our -80 goal differential from this year and add that back, that'd be -21, which would be good enough for 83 points, or 21st.  That requires: Hutton playing as expected, Skinner matching Kane, Jack elevating from 25 to 30G (or equivalent goal dif), Reinhart elevating from 25 to 31G (or equivalent goal dif), Dahlin being 6 goals better than who he replaced, defense otherwise being 12 goals better than before, everything else (forwards) pitching in to cover O'Reilly's absence (as expected).

Power Play Ranking: 18th
PK Ranking: 19th
All-Star Players: Eichel
Award Winners/Finalists: Dahlin (Calder Memorial)

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.) Reinhart
2.) Eichel
3.) Skinner
Top 3 point totals
1.) Eichel
2.) Reinhart
3.) Ristolainen

Sabres' best rookie: Rasmus Dahlin
Biggest surprise: Patrik Berglund (veteran forward), Jake McCabe (veteran defenseman), Tage Thompson (young forward) (Dahlin's not a surprise)
Biggest disappointment: Zach Bogosian's health

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark: 27
Hutton: 55
other(injuries): Wedgewood gets called up to ride bench for 2 games.

[Sabel79]

3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

My enthusiasm is bridled. But after watching a couple preseason games, I think Hutton's puck-moving ability is going to dynamically improve this team. Once every few games, he's going to generate a scoring chance, and every game he's going to nullify a forecheck on his own.

The other thing that really excites me is the replacement of the goalie tandem. Ullmark and Hutton (both in limited roles) posted plus .93 save percentages last season. Is that sustainable? No, they're not Hasek and this lineup is going to struggle defensively. But --- the Sabres had a sub .900 save percentage as a team last season. That won't happen. If we get good goaltending and are at .915 as a team vs. sub-.900, that's a 50-goal difference (based on last season's 2400 shots allowed) over the course of the season. That's what I'm hoping for --- a modestly improved (and more fun) team in front of a vastly improved goalie tandem.

 

 

1000 times this. 

I don't care if he went off and fixed himself this summer and plays out of his skull on the Island, subtracting Lehner from this team is probably going to be the best move made, IMHO. 

[Marions Piazza]

Team Predictions
Sabres' Final Record: 38-34 -10 86 points
Total Goals Scored: 241
Total Goals Allowed: 238
Power Play Ranking: 10th
PK Ranking: 19th
All-Star Players: Eichel - Skinner
Award Winners/Finalists: Dahlin will be a finalist for ROY

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.) Skinner - 35
2.) Eichel - 31
3.) Reinhart - 27
Top 3 point totals
1.) Eichel - 78 pts
2.) Skinner - 74 pts
3.) Reinhart - 60 pts

Sabres' best rookie: Dahlin
Biggest surprise: Thompson
Biggest disappointment: Sheary

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark: 13 wins
Hutton: 25 wins
other(injuries): 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

On 10/2/2018 at 11:19 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I have reworked my goal spreadsheet and have come to the following conclusion.  If this team stays healthy I see 247 goals.  Here is the breakdown. Pts in ( )

Eichel 32 (87), Skinner 37 (67), Reinhart 27 (69)

Sheary 18 (38), Berglund 12 (32), Thompson 16 (36)

Sobotka 10 (28),  Mittelstadt 17 (43), Okposo 15 (35)

Girgensons 7 (17), ERod 7 (21), Pommers 9 (23)

other 7 (12)

Scandella 5 (21), Risto 10 (47)

McCabe 3 (15), Dahlin 7 (24)

Baloo 2 (12), Nelson 5 (15)

other 1 (5)

If they score 247 goals, this team will be in contention for a playoff spot as long as they can limit the goals against.  Are the additions of Hutton and Dahlin on the back end enough to drop our GA by 40 goals to put us in a playoff spot?  I doubt it.  

37-35-10 84 pts 5th in the Atlantic 247 GF, 258 GA

 

I think your assessment is pretty good but just a few comments i would like to make.....

1) your predictions IMO are conservative in some ways and I would consider them to be our low end production.

2) I think you are under-estimating  on 2nd and 4th lines....Berglund paces at about 20g/yr and I think Sheary will get 20+...as long as they stay healthy.

3) E-Rod got that many points last year in only 48 games,so I would hope to add some to that and Pommer also. All together I would add 8-10 goals on 4th line.

4) If these are correct we are talking about another 15-20 goals  which could push us at least another spot up in the division and like you said...contend for a playoff spot

Nice job though with the predictions and my assessment IS just based on my opinion or my optimism?

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I think your assessment is pretty good but just a few comments i would like to make.....

1) your predictions IMO are conservative in some ways and I would consider them to be our low end production.

2) I think you are under-estimating  on 2nd and 4th lines....Berglund paces at about 20g/yr and I think Sheary will get 20+...as long as they stay healthy.

3) E-Rod got that many points last year in only 48 games,so I would hope to add some to that and Pommer also. All together I would add 8-10 goals on 4th line.

4) If these are correct we are talking about another 15-20 goals  which could push us at least another spot up in the division and like you said...contend for a playoff spot

Nice job though with the predictions and my assessment IS just based on my opinion or my optimism?

I’d love to viewed as conservative by year’s end.  However as to our second line, I estimated based on several factors.  1st, I expect Housley to put Berglund’s line out against the other team’s top line when he can.  This will likely limit their production.  Also, other than Thompson, I don’t expect these guys to get significant PP time.   Also Sheary played primarily with Sid in Pitt.  I like Berglund, but he isn’t Sid.  I see him transitioning to more of a playmaker role here with scorers like Sheary and Thompson on his wings.  This will limit his goal production, but up with assists.  

I love ERod and an unhappy that he has been relegated to 4th line duty.  i want him on Casey’s wing with Sobotka centering the 4th line.  Limiting him to 10 minutes a night is a mistake IMHO and will hurt our offense.  He is one of our few holdovers who drives puck possession.  That said, while our 4th line with Erod and Pommers should be better then last year’s terrible group, 4th line rarely add to much offense.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’d love to viewed as conservative by year’s end.  However as to our second line, I estimated based on several factors.  1st, I expect Housley to put Berglund’s line out against the other team’s top line when he can.  This will likely limit their production.  Also, other than Thompson, I don’t expect these guys to get significant PP time.   Also Sheary played primarily with Sid in Pitt.  I like Berglund, but he isn’t Sid.  I see him transitioning to more of a playmaker role here with scorers like Sheary and Thompson on his wings.  This will limit his goal production, but up with assists.  

I love ERod and an unhappy that he has been relegated to 4th line duty.  i want him on Casey’s wing with Sobotka centering the 4th line.  Limiting him to 10 minutes a night is a mistake IMHO and will hurt our offense.  He is one of our few holdovers who drives puck possession.  That said, while our 4th line with Erod and Pommers should be better then last year’s terrible group, 4th line rarely add to much offense.

All reasonable arguments.......LET THE SEASON BEGIN!!!!!!

[rakish]

71

[LGR4GM]

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.)Skinner - 37
2.) Eichel - 33
3.) Thompson - 28
Top 3 point totals
1.) Eichel - 91
2.) Reinhart - 72
3.) Skinner - 64

Sabres' best rookie: Dahlin
Biggest surprise: Nylander
Biggest disappointment: Mittelstadt

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark:28/18
Hutton: 54/29

other(injuries): Bogo

Edited October 4, 2018 by LGR4GM

[Kruppstahl]

I'll offer up my season prediction in terms of the big picture.

I think we rebound and become a competitive team that is free of embarrassment.

We'll have a solid point total, but will not make the playoffs this year.

If we do, it will be fantastic and welcome, but slightly over-achieving IMO.

 

 

[IKnowPhysics]

Lurkers, get your entries in by noon EST Friday.  Folks that have already posted, if you edit your entry after the time of this post, post below this that you have edited it.

I'ma tabulate the entries, dick around with stats, then post the results so it's easier to compare and make fun of each other for being ridiculous.

Edited October 4, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[ubkev]

69 points, Eichel All Star, Dahlin 2nd in Calder voting. Eichel 30g 45a 75p in 77 games. Reinhart goes 26g 30a. Dahlin puts up 26 points. Mitts puts up 37 points.

[DarthEbriate]

9 hours ago, utsvävande said:

71

Wins!

[CallawaySabres]

I predict 3 points after October 21st game and Housley fired morning of the 22nd

[IKnowPhysics]

Predictions Summary

Highlights/Agreements:

• Season points ranged from 69-99.  All represent an improvement from last season's 62 points.  Average was 85.
• Season goals for ranged from 210-263.  All represent an improvement from last season's 198.  Average was 237.
• Season goals against ranged from 229-290.  All but one represent an improvement from last season's 280.  Average was 254.
• Everyone picked Eichel to finish top two in goals (at least 27 goals) and first in points (at least 75 points, 86 points average).
• Everyone picked Reinhart to finish top three in points.
• The average guess at top goal scorer was 36 goals.
• Everyone thinks the PP lands between 4th and 18th.  Everyone thinks the PK lands between 15th and 30th.
• Nylander grabbed five mentions in biggest surprise.
• Mittelstadt grabbed five votes in biggest disappointment.

Outliers/Weirdos:

• Everyone had the Sabres winning 35 games except Pi.
• Everyone picked Skinner to finish top three in goals except Taro.
• Everyone picked Skinner to finish top three in points except Taro, Hoss, and IKP.
• Player outliers:
  • Only one defenseman cracked top three goals or points (IKP: Ristolainen)
  • Only Taro picked Sheary for top three in goals.
  • Only Liger picked Thompson for top three in goals.
  • Only Hoss picked Okposo for top three in points.
• Goalie outliers:
  • Pi think Hutton plays 70 games, Flagg thinks only 45.
  • Hoss thinks Ullmark plays 36, Pi only 12.
  • Matter thinks Goalie X plays 12 games.
• Everyone but Pi thinks Dahlin will be the best rookie.  Pi thinks it will be Pilut.  Wookie can't decide whether it's Dahlin or Mittelstadt.
• Everyone but JSB, Pi, and Liger thinks Dahlin is at least a Calder finalist.  JSB thinks Okposo wins Lady Byng.
• Everyone but Darth, Huckleberry, and Liger think that Eichel is an All-Star.

[Randall Flagg]

That's pretty freakin awesome IKP. 

[DarthEbriate]

How are we doing at the quarter pole?

(I don't think anyone had us on pace for 109 points)

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 10/2/2018 at 11:19 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I have reworked my goal spreadsheet and have come to the following conclusion.  If this team stays healthy I see 247 goals.  Here is the breakdown. Pts in ( )

Eichel 32 (87), Skinner 37 (67), Reinhart 27 (69)

Sheary 18 (38), Berglund 12 (32), Thompson 16 (36)

Sobotka 10 (28),  Mittelstadt 17 (43), Okposo 15 (35)

Girgensons 7 (17), ERod 7 (21), Pommers 9 (23)

other 7 (12)

Scandella 5 (21), Risto 10 (47)

McCabe 3 (15), Dahlin 7 (24)

Baloo 2 (12), Nelson 5 (15)

other 1 (5)

If they score 247 goals, this team will be in contention for a playoff spot as long as they can limit the goals against.  Are the additions of Hutton and Dahlin on the back end enough to drop our GA by 40 goals to put us in a playoff spot?  I doubt it.  

37-35-10 84 pts 5th in the Atlantic 247 GF, 258 GA

 

Here is an update on the predicition  (above) vs current pace. Pts in ( )

Eichel 17 (96) - I predicted slightly less pts (87) but 17 goals from Jack won’t be enough to sustain this team

Skinner 62 (89) - Skinner is on pace to have the 2nd best goal scoring season in Sabres history.  

Reinhart 10 (55) - like Jack we need more goals from Sam to sustain our level of play.

Pommers 31 (62) - not sustainable without Jack, still having a great year at 35.

Okposo 17 (48) - quietly exceeding my expectations and playing like the 50 pt player we signed

Sheary 21 (42) - playing like what we hoped and just slightly above predicted.  42 pts for $3 mill a year is a huge bargain.

Erod 4 (34) - continues to drive offense despite a limited role

Mitts 14 (28) - goals are on pace to prediction but expected more playmaking.  Pace hopefully will continue to improve

Sobatka 11 (19) - goals are as predicted, but like Mitts playmaking isn’t there

Girgensons 4 (14) - right on predicted pace for pts, a little shy on goals

Thompson 13 (17) - goals just shy of expectation, but lack of playmaking surprising  as assists to goals have been balanced in his past at all levels.

Berglund 8 (16) - a complete disappointment YTD.

Larsson  4 (13) - like Girgensons 

Ristolainen 7 (44) - Just slightly below predictions which is ok considering......

Dahlin 7 (44) - blowing away the prediction and my expectations - he’s probably going to be even better as the season progresses

McCabe 7 (35) - can u say contract year and a perfect system. I thought you could.

Scandella 4 (18) - just slightly below predicted level

Baloo 10 (21) - this assumes he plays every game the rest of the way.

Bogo 8 (24) - on pace to mostly earn his contract this season. Yeah! Shocked!

Nelson 4 (13) - right on predicted level but assumes he’ll play everyday.

GF -  predicted 247 and thanks to Skinner and the D now running at 262 for the season.

GA -  predicted 258 and thanks to amazing play if Hutton and Ullmark we are looking at 226.  

Net of +36 means a high playoff slot.

One note of caution besides Pommers (not sustainable) and Skinner (who will likely slow some) none of our forwards are really exceeding their predicted pace and two key players (Jack and Sam - although their assists are way up) are significantly below.  On the plus side the D scoring is significantly higher then expected and looks sustainable. I thought 33 goals for the season was a generous number, but right now the group is on pace for 41 and I won’t be surprised if they exceed that number as Dahlin gets even more involved in the offense.

Edited November 26, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[pi2000]

On 9/29/2018 at 12:57 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Team Predictions
Sabres' Final Record: 35 - 42 - 5, 75 points, 6th in the Atlantic
Total Goals Scored: 221
Total Goals Allowed: 250
Power Play Ranking: 15th
PK Ranking: 24th
All-Star Players: Jack Eichel
Award Winners/Finalists: Dahlin is a Calder Finalist, doesn't win it

Player Predictions
Top 3 goal scorers
1.) Jack Eichel (35)
2.) Jeff Skinner (29)
3.) Sam Reinhart (28) (big cliff after this)
Top 3 point totals
1.) Jack Eichel (84)
2.) Sam Reinhart (58)
3.) Jeff Skinner (52)

Sabres' best rookie: Dahlin 
Biggest surprise: Pilut is our 3rd best defenseman by April
Biggest disappointment: Bogosian disappoints the 3 people who actually expected anything good from him, my pick is Rodrigues playing himself off the team after having the leading ES scoring rate on the team while playing with bottom-tier wingers last year

How many games/wins for the goalies?
Ullmark: 35 games, 15 wins
Hutton: 45 games, 20 wins
other(injuries): 2 games 0 wins

Very good prediction here by @Randall Flagg

Final record, and goalie wins nearly spot on.