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Berglund, Sobotka, & a Season Preview


Randall Flagg

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Great read Flagg...

After reading through all the comments I would to add some thoughts...

Most top teams have a top line made up of a combination of skill and power.  Sid has pretty consistently had Hornqvist on his wing. Ovi played this past year with Wilson.  Lucic in his prime with Bergeron.  Brown with Kopitar.  I still feel Jack and Casey need to have someone that can give them a net front presence and take up space in the offensive zone and also be solid defensively.  Do the Sabres currently have anyone on the roster that fits that mold.  I don't know.  

I'd much rather see 4 balanced lines that make it difficult for other teams to match.  Sure would I love to see Jack and Skinner go out and mesh and dominate, but if we don't get balanced scoring through out the line up, they will just play against the other teams top lines and wash each other out.

My idea of balanced lines would look like this...

Sobatka, Eichel, Reinhart

Skinner, Mitts, Okposo

Wilson, Berglund, Sheary

Girgensons, ERod, Bailey/Baptiste/Thompson

 

Pommers gives them a true professional to step up out of the press box for injuries and could fill in anywhere on the right side.

Larsson gives them the same at center or LW in the bottom six.

 

 

On defense :

McCabe, Risto

Scandella, Dahlin

Guhle, Bogo

 

McCabe, Scandella, and Bogo gives you more stay at home defenseman to allow Risto, Dahlin, and Guhle to jump into the offensive rush.  They must roll all three lines and not over play anyone.  Depending on end game situations, you may switch up a pair for more defensive pairing,  Scandella and Risto,  or and offensive pairing Risto and Dahlin.  

I think Guhle takes big strides this year and we have a solid top six.  Bogo's health could give opportunity for another Nelson call up.

 

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A little over 16 months ago Jason Botterill was brought in to take charge of an organization that was imploding both on and off the ice.

He tweaked the roster with mostly bit players outside of the core, brought in a new coach and watched the team plummet 16 points to the bottom of the standings.

Standing pat this summer was an option no one could endorse. And Botterill did anything but sit on his hands, overseeing one of the most thorough roster makeovers in Sabres history.

He talked about a need to improve the team’s depth upfront - preferably wingers with speed and definitely with even-strength scoring. He made a big move to address that by trading for Jeff Skinner, among the NHL’s top even-strength scorers over the past four years. And he bolstered that move with Patrik Berglund and Conor Sheary, who combined for 35 goals last year, only 5 of them on the power play. Both Sheary and Skinner can fly.

He talked about giving his coach a more mobile defence. Then he cut ties with the concrete skates of Josh Gorges and Justin Falk, brought in swift, high-scoring Swedish league defenceman Lawrence Pilut and smooth skating veteran Mat Hunwick for depth, and added crown jewel defenceman Rasmus Dahlin at the top of the draft.

And he talked how his goalies had to be better and ended up replacing Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson with free agent Carter Hutton and rookie Linus Ullmark.

More to the point, he flushed out a dressing room that was in need of an enema, full of players who admittedly had grown used to losing. Perhaps it is unfair to point  fingers at the at-times cavalier Evander Kane, the frequently self-flagellating Ryan O’Reilly and the clearly fragile Lehner, but there is little doubt they were large voices in the locker room whose absence can’t help but shift the tenor of its character. 

Skinner, Dahlin, Sheary, Berglund, Hutton, Ullmark, veteran forward Vladimir Sobotka and stud centre prospect Casey Mittelstadt mean the roster will have at least eight new faces in regular roles.

Young pros like Brendan Guhle, Casey Nelson, CJ Smith, Justin Bailey and Nick Baptiste who were groomed last year on the farm, along with Hunwick, Pilut and former Blues prospect Tage Thompson would like to swell that number. They should put the heat on younger, mostly disappointing holdovers like Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Nathan Beaulieu and Jake McCabe.

They sacrificed their most leaned-upon player in O’Reilly, but there is little doubt the Sabres have more depth than they have had in about a decade

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But for this team to pull itself into the playoff conversation, three things have to happen this year, none of them certain: stable goaltending, the formation of a veteran middle class; and maturity from the kids.

Last year’s Sabres were a fragile team made worse by fragile goaltending. Even when the goalies played well enough to keep the game tight, everyone knew another goal was coming: the fans, the goalies themselves, and, most critically, their teammates. One school of thought suggests that anyone would be an improvement. Another looks at the 30 combined NHL starts of Ullmark and Hutton last year and wonders if there is a more unproven pair in the NHL. Hutton was statistically the NHL’s best goalie last season and was specifically targeted by Botterill. Ullmark is a carefully groomed AHL all-star. Neither has ever carried the weight of an NHL team. The Sabres need at least one of them to thrive.

Part of the allure of Hutton is his status as one of the game’s genuinely solid dudes, someone who has been around for awhile and is both a good teammate and a pro’s pro who contributes both on and off the ice. Last year, the burden of veteran leadership fell almost entirely on the shoulders of O’Reilly, where it sat like an anchor. Instead of being bulwarked by capable vets, a team stuffed full of unproven youngsters was given end-of-the-line ballast like Gorges, Benoit Pouliot, Jacob Josefson, Jordan Nolan, Johnson and Jason Pominville to lean on and “show them the way.” There were better veterans on the roster, but Zach Bogosian missed most of the season, Evander Kane was headed out the door and Kyle Okposo too wrapped up in his own struggles.

Hutton and his former Blues teammates Berglund and Sobotka have done more winning than losing in their careers and Sheary has a cup ring. More to the point, they are better NHL players than the group they are replacing. A return to form of Okposo, and a return to health of Bogosian, along with Marco Scandella no longer being “the new guy” could further solidify things. This veteran group must provide the team with the dependable, experienced middle class it woefully lacked last year both during and away from games.

The final element is the most important one going forward. The Sabres can be decent with their lottery winnings playing well. But if they want to contend, those players need to become great. 

Expectations for Dahlin seem somewhat muted here. Certainly, the fan base is not rallying around him the way it did for Eichel three years ago. It’s understandable perhaps, given his position and our once-bitten wariness around draft pick saviours. But he doesn’t need to be a saviour this year, and Mittlestadt doesn’t need to (and won’t) be O’Reilly. What they need to be are legitimate 2nd-line/2nd-pair NHLers who are capable of occasionally igniting their teammates and a moribund arena with some edgy competitiveness and a “how-did-he-do-that?” big play.

The task is tougher for Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen. The touted, talented top picks have been kids long enough; they need to become men. For all their play in Buffalo - good, bad or indifferent - they’ve never radiated a sense of accountability for the team’s success, or lack thereof. 

Ristolainen needs to stop bullheadedly playing the same game again and again and expecting things to change. Adapt. Adjust. Find a better way. Reinhart needs to force himself to be the savvy difference maker he was during the back half of last season over an entire year. He needs to demand more of himself and his teammates. And it’s time for Eichel to thrust himself into the conversation about the best players in the game. It’s about more than just staying healthy, putting up a point a game and remaining persistent in the face of adversity. It’s about regularly seizing control of games and pulling his teammates along with him. It’s time for Jack to finally start making the players around him better.

Essentially, for all three, it’s about leadership, on and off the ice. Setting the tone. Demanding excellence from themselves and others.

The job of nurturing all the above into existence falls on to the shoulders of Phil Housley, who fought valiantly to maintain an attitude of positive reinforcement during last season’s struggles, but failed to overcome the team’s flaws. He enters the season promising a tougher approach, equipped with new parts better suited to the type of game he wants to play. That sounds good on the surface. This season should indicate whether he’s part of the solution, or part of the problem.

Botterill has made a lot of moves over the past 16 months. It will be interesting to see how many of them were good ones.

And if our suffering can finally be over.

Edited by dudacek
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@dudacek I agree with just about all of the above.  But, if I can hone in on one aspect... the elimination of Lehner and all the bad that came with him absolutely has to be worth a few points in the standings... even assuming we see slightly less than bog-standard goaltending out of Hutton/Ullmark.  But I don’t think we will.  

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The Hutton play shouldn't be underestimated and you are doing that if you base your evaluation solely upon his stats.

Show me a team that has a goaltender the locker room likes, that is a pillar for the team, and you'll see a team with confidence and one that can achieve.

Fleury was a crucial component of the Penguins runs, even when he was also being hammered for his poor playoff performance.  The team genuinely missed him last year and it showed.

The Panthers play better because Luongo is a rock for the team.  He doesn't have to be spectacular.  Players simply want to succeed to help him succeed.

Players are judged by their stats and a goaltender can have a higher GAA and lower SV% but if the W column is working, it won't matter.  No other player gets that pass on the team.

The Sabres didn't have a goaltender that the locker room cared for last year.  I think they will this year and I think it will show, regardless of the stats.

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Just now, LTS said:

Fleury was a crucial component of the Penguins runs, even when he was also being hammered for his poor playoff performance.  The team genuinely missed him last year and it showed.

They were a 100pt team that got bounced in the playoffs by the SC winning team in the year they were going for their 3rd Cup in a row. I don't think the Penguins missed MaF at all

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1 minute ago, WildCard said:

They were a 100pt team that got bounced in the playoffs by the SC winning team in the year they were going for their 3rd Cup in a row. I don't think the Penguins missed MaF at all

You don't?

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/2018-nhl-playoffs-five-reasons-the-pittsburgh-penguins-were-eliminated-by-the-washington-capitals/

The Penguins are an exceptionally talented team.  There were a few things that went wrong in that series.  Washington also was an exceptional team.  However, Murray's play was less than exceptional.  Perhaps Fleury doesn't fare any better, there's no real way to tell.  However, he was gone and players certainly talked about how his presence in the locker room would be missed.

Simultaneously, the team he went to continually pointed to Fleury as being a huge reason why they were winning.

There's no way to definitively prove that example, one way or another.  I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Fleury has an impact on the team he plays for and that players want to play just a bit harder for him.

All of that aside, the point was about a goaltender who has respect in the locker room will carry a team further than one who doesn't, all things being equal.

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1 minute ago, LTS said:

You don't?

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/2018-nhl-playoffs-five-reasons-the-pittsburgh-penguins-were-eliminated-by-the-washington-capitals/

The Penguins are an exceptionally talented team.  There were a few things that went wrong in that series.  Washington also was an exceptional team.  However, Murray's play was less than exceptional.  Perhaps Fleury doesn't fare any better, there's no real way to tell.  However, he was gone and players certainly talked about how his presence in the locker room would be missed.

Simultaneously, the team he went to continually pointed to Fleury as being a huge reason why they were winning.

There's no way to definitively prove that example, one way or another.  I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Fleury has an impact on the team he plays for and that players want to play just a bit harder for him.

All of that aside, the point was about a goaltender who has respect in the locker room will carry a team further than one who doesn't, all things being equal.

I mean Murray led them to two Cups the years before with a .923 and a .937 sv%, this year he had a down year with a .908. Meanwhile Fleury's play took an absolute nosedive as soon as the Cup Finals were reached; his poor playoff play isn't something new for him either 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-fleurys-performance-stalled-stanley-cup-final/

Well yeah, a goalie who's respected is better than one that isn't. I don't necessarily think that it's a must have in a goalie though, nor do I think that a goalie being respected is more important than any other important player being respected

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Just now, WildCard said:

I mean Murray led them to two Cups the years before with a .923 and a .937 sv%, this year he had a down year with a .908. Meanwhile Fleury's play took an absolute nosedive as soon as the Cup Finals were reached; his poor playoff play isn't something new for him either 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-fleurys-performance-stalled-stanley-cup-final/

Well yeah, a goalie who's respected is better than one that isn't. I don't necessarily think that it's a must have in a goalie though, nor do I think that a goalie being respected is more important than any other important player being respected

Yes, I acknowledged that Fleury tended to suck it up in the playoffs.  In addition, in 2017, if i recall correctly, Murray was injured and Fleury got them through the first few rounds of the playoffs.

As for the point about other players being respected, I think it's very different.

If there's going to be a shot on net and a player isn't inspired as much to get in the way or change the angle of the shot, it makes the goaltender's job harder.  If there's a need to bust butt back up the ice to backcheck to prevent a shot on net or even hassle the shooter so the shot isn't as high quality it's less likely a player is going to do it because when the goaltender says something about it in the locker room, no one is going to care.

If the goaltender isn't supported then that potentially they don't try as hard either... and goal goes in net.

Apply that to any other player and the goal doesn't necessarily go in the net.  It might be 1 player out of 18 skaters that doesn't get a pass, but if they aren't trying hard they might get benched or they might have a bad year, the puck doesn't go in the net.

The same holds true in football.  If the RB or QB aren't respected by the O-Line, what's the different in effort they put into blocking?  It's not the same as a WR not being respected... then the QB might not throw him the ball.

 

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4 minutes ago, LTS said:

Yes, I acknowledged that Fleury tended to suck it up in the playoffs.  In addition, in 2017, if i recall correctly, Murray was injured and Fleury got them through the first few rounds of the playoffs.

As for the point about other players being respected, I think it's very different.

If there's going to be a shot on net and a player isn't inspired as much to get in the way or change the angle of the shot, it makes the goaltender's job harder.  If there's a need to bust butt back up the ice to backcheck to prevent a shot on net or even hassle the shooter so the shot isn't as high quality it's less likely a player is going to do it because when the goaltender says something about it in the locker room, no one is going to care.

If the goaltender isn't supported then that potentially they don't try as hard either... and goal goes in net.

Apply that to any other player and the goal doesn't necessarily go in the net.  It might be 1 player out of 18 skaters that doesn't get a pass, but if they aren't trying hard they might get benched or they might have a bad year, the puck doesn't go in the net.

The same holds true in football.  If the RB or QB aren't respected by the O-Line, what's the different in effort they put into blocking?  It's not the same as a WR not being respected... then the QB might not throw him the ball.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that teams play differently (and better!) in front of goalies they respect.  The Sabres played better in front of Dominik than in front of his backups, and better in front of Miller than in front of Lalime.

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1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Teams play better in front of better goalies, it's that simple. 

Correct.

I've been part of terrible teams with very likable popular goaltenders... I've also been part of great teams with goalies that nobody ever spoke a word to. 

It's more important that, as a player, you trust your goaltender instead of simply liking him for who he is.

Edited by pi2000
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I'm intrigued by the idea of Housley being poised to take a new approach to the team this year.

 

Normally, a coach doesn't have this luxury, as the players have already made up their mind about him. However, in our case, the locker room looks so different that Housley actually has an opportunity to make a first impression on a sizable amount of our roster.

 

I think much of our success will depend on the impression Housley makes on the newcomers. He has an opportunity coaches rarely have. Let's hope he's learned a whole lot his first year and is ready to be better.

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I think, and I suspect Housley can sell this, that last year was essentially an 82-game training camp.  Winning was nice when it happened, but it really wasn't the point.  The point was for Housley to institute his system, to evaluate and develop talent, and to learn how to be a head coach himself.  It was a transition year with no expectations.  This year will be the actual building of the team:  Ensuring that the system matches the players, enforcing discipline on the players to follow the system, continued development of the entering youth (including protected minutes until they are ready for a bigger role) and transitioning the leadership of the team to the "young studs", primarily Eichel.  It's their time to step up.

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2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think, and I suspect Housley can sell this, that last year was essentially an 82-game training camp.  Winning was nice when it happened, but it really wasn't the point.  The point was for Housley to institute his system, to evaluate and develop talent, and to learn how to be a head coach himself.  It was a transition year with no expectations.  This year will be the actual building of the team:  Ensuring that the system matches the players, enforcing discipline on the players to follow the system, continued development of the entering youth (including protected minutes until they are ready for a bigger role) and transitioning the leadership of the team to the "young studs", primarily Eichel.  It's their time to step up.

I disagree about last season.    They were set up to contend for a playoff spot and feel woefully short of that goal, languishing at the bottom of the standings for the ENTIRE season.   They didn't even make a run at any point during the year.     Huge failure for Housley with Botterill slamming doors and whatnot.     

Phil has to be on a very short leash this season.    They have the pieces, he needs to make it work or they need to move on before the young talent becomes spoiled.

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4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I disagree about last season.    They were set up to contend for a playoff spot and feel woefully short of that goal, languishing at the bottom of the standings for the ENTIRE season.   They didn't even make a run at any point during the year.     Huge failure for Housley with Botterill slamming doors and whatnot.     

Phil has to be on a very short leash this season.    They have the pieces, he needs to make it work or they need to move on before the young talent becomes spoiled.

lol no they weren't

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I think the lack of success Housley had last year is a lever he will try to use this year: “Sick of losing? Then you better get on board!”

And the increased depth at his disposal gives him a hammer he didn’t have last year. I suspect a fall guy will be targeted early as an example to show he means business.

I also think the team needs to win early, or he will lose them in a hurry.

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25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the lack of success Housley had last year is a lever he will try to use this year: “Sick of losing? Then you better get on board!”

And the increased depth at his disposal gives him a hammer he didn’t have last year. I suspect a fall guy will be targeted early as an example to show he means business.

I also think the team needs to win early, or he will lose them in a hurry.

It can work as long as the room perceives him as genuine and not just trying a new schtick. I could possibly appear that way to those that know him, but if the vets buy in, it could be effective.

Edited by erickompositör72
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29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the lack of success Housley had last year is a lever he will try to use this year: “Sick of losing? Then you better get on board!”

And the increased depth at his disposal gives him a hammer he didn’t have last year. I suspect a fall guy will be targeted early as an example to show he means business.

I also think the team needs to win early, or he will lose them in a hurry.

 

4 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

It can work as long as the room perceives him as genuine and not just trying a new schtick. I could possibly appear that way to those that know him, but if the vets buy in, it could be effective.

He can't just snap his whip and fix everything.    The players need to respect him.... and I'm not talking about player-to-player respect.... it has to be coach-player type of respect where they're skating through walls for him.    Unfortunately, I don't see him as that type of coach... good guy tho.     

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39 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I disagree about last season.    They were set up to contend for a playoff spot and feel woefully short of that goal, languishing at the bottom of the standings for the ENTIRE season.   They didn't even make a run at any point during the year.     Huge failure for Housley with Botterill slamming doors and whatnot.     

Phil has to be on a very short leash this season.    They have the pieces, he needs to make it work or they need to move on before the young talent becomes spoiled.

We've had this conversation before. The last 31 games of 16-17 saw the team play at a 55 point pace. What on earth makes you think they were set up for a playoff spot? 

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22 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

We've had this conversation before. The last 31 games of 16-17 saw the team play at a 55 point pace. What on earth makes you think they were set up for a playoff spot? 

I don't want to get into this again.

Bottom line is... going into 17-18 with a new modern style headcoach, some new D, new bottom sixers, a healthy Eichel, etc... all arrows were pointing up for a team that finished with 78 and 81 points the previous 2 seasons under the abomination that was Dan Bylsma.     

Instead they got worse by 20 points.... but somehow, someway Housley had nothing to do with that... in fact you go so far as to say that was the plan.    Trust me.... dropping like a stone by 20 points to the league basement was never part of any plan.

Housley had no command of this team, he let locker room issues fester, and talent go to waste.... who exactly improved under Housley last season?   EVERYBODY was worse, having career worse year... Reinhart with what 15 points through the first 40 games or so?     It was only after Reinhart said "screw it" and decided to start playing his own game (watch his exist interview) that he turned his season around.    That's a direct indictment of the coach IMO.

And then all we hear in exit interviews is how every player needs to be better and improve this summer, like it was all the players faults... that's the tail wagging the dog.    PUtting a first time rookie head coach behind the bench with this young immature group was a massive mistake, and one that will continue to play itself out this season I'm afraid.   

They needed an experienced veteran coach to come in, take control, put all their ego's in check and get them pulling in the same direction... there were absolutely no signs of that at any point last season.     Why anybody thinks this season will be any different is beyond me.

Housley was a great player, he's probably (I don't know him personally) a great upstanding guy too.   That doesn't mean he'll be any good as a coach... in fact, it's more likey that great players flop as head coaches because things that made them great came naturally to them and they can't relate to the average player and his struggles.     He went from coaching high school to NHL assistant to head coach.    He's in way over his head and as a fan I'm not patient enough to wait 4 or 5 years for him to figure it out. 

Edited by pi2000
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38 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I don't want to get into this again.

Bottom line is... going into 17-18 with a new modern style headcoach, some new D, new bottom sixers, a healthy Eichel, etc... all arrows were pointing up for a team that finished with 78 and 81 points the previous 2 seasons under the abomination that was Dan Bylsma.     

Instead they got worse by 20 points.... but somehow, someway Housley had nothing to do with that... in fact you go so far as to say that was the plan.    Trust me.... dropping like a stone by 20 points to the league basement was never part of any plan.

Housley had no command of this team, he let locker room issues fester, and talent go to waste.... who exactly improved under Housley last season?   EVERYBODY was worse, having career worse year... Reinhart with what 15 points through the first 40 games or so?     It was only after Reinhart said "screw it" and decided to start playing his own game (watch his exist interview) that he turned his season around.    That's a direct indictment of the coach IMO.

And then all we hear in exit interviews is how every player needs to be better and improve this summer, like it was all the players faults... that's the tail wagging the dog.    PUtting a first time rookie head coach behind the bench with this young immature group was a massive mistake, and one that will continue to play itself out this season I'm afraid.   

They needed an experienced veteran coach to come in, take control, put all their ego's in check and get them pulling in the same direction... there were absolutely no signs of that at any point last season.     Why anybody thinks this season will be any different is beyond me.

Housley was a great player, he's probably (I don't know him personally) a great upstanding guy too.   That doesn't mean he'll be any good as a coach... in fact, it's more likey that great players flop as head coaches because things that made them great came naturally to them and they can't relate to the average player and his struggles.     He went from coaching high school to NHL assistant to head coach.    He's in way over his head and as a fan I'm not patient enough to wait 4 or 5 years for him to figure it out. 

I just can't help myself. Every time I see PI has posted I have look. This post makes way too much sense. Housley was a fan emotional favorite. Very possibly not the best choice.

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2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Correct.

I've been part of terrible teams with very likable popular goaltenders... I've also been part of great teams with goalies that nobody ever spoke a word to. 

It's more important that, as a player, you trust your goaltender instead of simply liking him for who he is.

A likable goaltender isn't going to overcome a lack of talent.  As I said, all things being equal... a goaltender who is respected will get better effort from a team than one who is not.  If you don't trust your goaltender, odds are good you don't respect him.  I've played on teams too, I've seen it.  I've coached it.  It's human nature and it's not just applicable in sports.
 

10 minutes ago, Radar said:

I just can't help myself. Every time I see PI has posted I have look. This post makes way too much sense. Housley was a fan emotional favorite. Very possibly not the best choice.

This might be something to buy into, if it were ONLY the Buffalo Sabres who had an opinion on Housley.  But it isn't.  There was a lot of praise being thrown on Phil from all over hockey circles.  There's no fan emotion in that praise.

Last year's team may have had talent but it had no cohesion.  The assertion that talent trumps teamwork is absurd.  Just doesn't happen... they are related, not independent from each other.

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