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dudacek

What should we expect from Sobotka and Berglund?

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I am really curious as to what we are getting in Berglund and Sobotka. 

I hadn’t paid a ton of attention to them recently, but my impression was they were both solid NHLers. But after we acquired them I was bombarded with a ton of posts about how terrible they were for St. Louis. “Cap dump,” “negative value,” “the Blues were trying to give these guys away” and “garbage” were some of the most frequent.

There are 400 regular forwards, give or take, in the NHL.

  • Sobotka was 201 in points, Berglund 235th (in 57 games).
  • Sobotka was 112 in average ice time, Berglund 161.
  • Sobotka is 153 in cap hit. Berglund is 139.
  • They are both veterans, both win face offs, play multiple positions and are responsible defensively.

On the surface they played middle six minutes, for middle six contracts, in middle six roles, providing middle six production, for a middling hockey team. Not exactly Ryan O’Reilly to be sure, but pretty much the definition of average NHL forwards.

Am I missing something here? Are they actually garbage, or was that just hyperbole in reaction to being traded for ROR?

Edited by dudacek

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Scott Arniel 2.0 and 2.1

 

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I believe because they are both over thirty is why you have the negativity.  I think they are solid players who fit well in the middle six.  Most probably 3rd line players that can move up to second to fill in for injuries.  

Expectations this year.

Sobotka- 13 goals- 22 assist- 35pts

Berglund- 15 goals - 16 assist- 31pts

For third line players I'll take those numbers!!

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5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

or was that just hyperbole in reaction to being traded for ROR?

I think you nailed it right here.  Whether or not we like the deal is meaningless at this point.  It is done and that cannot be changed.  All that matters now is what these guys can do for this team.  Hopefully that is what we can discuss in here. 

After all of that, I think we can dismiss the cap discussion, at least when it comes to Sobotka.  Berglund could be more of an issue since he has 4 years left.  This team doesn't have any current cap issues over the remaining two years of Sobotka's deal.

I think you nailed the rest of what is needed from these guys as well.  Ideally, they help to give this team a little more depth.  We need them to be supplemental pieces to this team.  In terms of the trade, that's also what they were.

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13 minutes ago, Weave said:

Scott Arniel 2.0 and 2.1

 

Who was a pretty darn good player for the Sabres.  Back then I would have taken two Arniels and now we have two.  

Very good comparison, IMO, Weave.  That's why we either pay you the big bucks, or pay you nothing.  I bet it's nothing.

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19 minutes ago, Weave said:

Scott Arniel 2.0 and 2.1

 

Good, middle 6 guys that get shipped out in mega deals bringing back TRUE HoF level talent?

Sign me up. ;)

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3 minutes ago, N S said:

Who was a pretty darn good player for the Sabres.  Back then I would have taken two Arniels and now we have two.  

Very good comparison, IMO, Weave.  That's why we either pay you the big bucks, or pay you nothing.  I bet it's nothing.

image.thumb.png.b9dc19ecf2b6fcf3588fe915910972e3.png

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1 minute ago, Weave said:

image.thumb.png.b9dc19ecf2b6fcf3588fe915910972e3.png

Is that a bankrobber? ...

You made me do it ...

 

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They’ll score 15- 20 more points then ROR, give us 3rd line scoring for a change, play solid 2 way hockey, help our PK, win key D zone faceoffs, and tutor our kids all for less then we were paying ROR. And they’ll be able to go through the Tim Horton’s drive through without driving through the Tim Hortons.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They’ll score 15- 20 more points then ROR, give us 3rd line scoring for a change, play solid 2 way hockey, help our PK, win key D zone faceoffs, and tutor our kids all for less then we were paying ROR. And they’ll be able to go through the Tim Horton’s drive through without driving through the Tim Hortons. 

I agree with most of this, but the fair comparison isn't really the 2 FNGs vs ROR -- it's the 2 FNGs vs ROR plus whatever 3rd-liner would've played had the trade not occurred.

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I think Berglund or Sobotka will also see PP time , someone will need to win those draws.

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Liked this trade when it was made. Why because I don't like ROR? No, I loved him but if you were going to trade him I think they got more in return than I expected. Furthermore JBot did what he said he would do......change the core makeup of the team which many,if not most of us, wanted. So he's taken ownership of this team which I like and whatever comes of it he did what I think had to be done. You weren't changing the makeup of this franchise buy moving a Larson or Girgenson type players.

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Berglund is a very good 3rd line C I expect him to play well defensively and chip in offensively with 15g or so.    Same with Sobotka.   

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4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Good, middle 6 guys that get shipped out in mega deals bringing back TRUE HoF level talent?

Sign me up. 😉

The name Scott Arniel jumped in my head because the stats Dudacek posted reminded me of an article in The Hockey News back when Arniel was with Buffalo (or maybe after we moved him, I don't remember that detail). The article was titled "Mr. Average".  The article described a bunch of stats that showed Arniel to be average in a bunch of league categories, right down to number of times traded.  He was essentially the living embodiment of an avergae NHL player.  Seems Sobotka and Berglund are cut from the same cloth.

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9 minutes ago, Weave said:

The name Scott Arniel jumped in my head because the stats Dudacek posted reminded me of an article in The Hockey News back when Arniel was with Buffalo (or maybe after we moved him, I don't remember that detail). The article was titled "Mr. Average".  The article described a bunch of stats that showed Arniel to be average in a bunch of league categories, right down to number of times traded.  He was essentially the living embodiment of an avergae NHL player.  Seems Sobotka and Berglund are cut from the same cloth.

Was curious why him.  Makes sense.

Always liked him and was bummed when he got shipped out in the Hawerchuk deal.  Especially considering he convinced Ducks that Buffalo was a great place to play & they were the best man in each others' wedding.

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I think there’s a chance our expectations for Berglund are a bit low. He has almost the exact same GPG over the last two seasons as ROR (Berglund is .0002% higher if we want to get technical).

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Last season, once Reinhart went back to wing, we rolled out 3/4 centers of Girgensons, Larsson, and Josefson. (And also Rodrigues, but I figure he'll be a winger, so I'm excluding him for my own nefarious purposes.) Girgs played some wing with Eichel after the Kane trade, but between the three of them they combined for 13 goals.

My thinking is that Berglund and Sobotka anchor the 3/4 lines (freeing Mitts to handle O-zone-friendly matchups in his rookie season) and combine for about 20-25 goals, kill penalties, and allow us to match opposing lines other than just "roll ROR out there". All the better because it means we won't run the risk of rushing Malone or Asplund up for extended bottom 6 work this season as we would have done in previous years.

Depth is good. It doesn't seems to make a difference in space station trenches, but it's good in hockey.

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Berglund will be fine.

I'm just hoping Buffalo fans don't turn Sobotka into some hybrid of Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford, and Alexander Semin.

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24 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Berglund will be fine.

I'm just hoping Buffalo fans don't turn Sobotka into some hybrid of Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford, and Alexander Semin.

Agreed.

I'm looking at Sobotka as a line 3 or 4 vet anchor presence. We're most likely going to have a youngster or 2 on those lines I suspect. Berglund I see as our line 3 center.

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I expect something like:

21-15-36 from Berglund

9-17-26 from Sobotka

Edited by Hoss

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46 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Berglund will be fine.

I'm just hoping Buffalo fans don't turn Sobotka into some hybrid of Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford, and Alexander Semin.

And his name will be Semechtford! And he shall fight once in the first game of the season after making a comment about being a tougher team, and then never fight again until the captain is hit. And verily he shall float up and down the lineup and make each line gel. And also he’ll kill penalties and put up 48 goals.

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8 hours ago, Hoss said:

I expect something like:

21-15-36 from Berglund

9-17-26 from Sobotka

When was the last time the sabres had a regular bottom six guy score 20+?  2007?

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10 hours ago, Hoss said:

I expect something like:

21-15-36 from Berglund

9-17-26 from Sobotka

Actually I'm expecting a little more from both and depending on the 3rd guy on that 3rd line, maybe a 100 point line which will be about 90 points more than we received from our 3rd line last year.

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