TRADE: Sabres acquire Jeff Skinner

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

If nothing else at least we can finally end all the bad Pu jokes 

I feel bad for Carolina fans.  It's a {insert obscenity for poopy here} situation for them.

 

HEY NS!  You'll be glad to know that the hashtags blocking bad words has been replaced by a filter that just deletes them.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Weave

[carpandean]

So, we went from a skidder to a Skinner ...

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, sodbuster said:

So what you're saying is that you're relieved to get all of the Pu out of your system?

Okay, this one was solid.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, Sabre fan said:

Obviously JBotto has an agenda against OHL players but I kind of hate the thought of doing what EXGMTM was balsted for...giving young prospects for older established players that are only here for a year or two (Skinner will be gone next summer for sure...)

There is a difference here.

Let's talk about the ROR trade. We traded Nikita Zadorov (1st round), JT Compher (2nd), Mikhail Grigorenko (1st), and the 31st overall pick for ROR (and technically McGinn but whatever). Compher and Zadorov are solid players although not great. They would have defenitely helped the Sabres depth problem over the last couple of years. The 31st overall pick was Jeremy Roy (2nd) who is contributing this year in the AHL and will probably end up a 4-6 defender. So in essence we gave up 3 actual players for ROR. I know that us trading ROR adds stuff but let's just talk about the initial trade. Compher, Zadorov and what would become Roy (yes I know Colorado traded the pick).

Then you have the Kane/Bogo trade. We traded Tyler Myers (1st), Joel Armia (1st), Brendan Lemieux (2nd), and a 1st. The first became Jack Roslovic (1st). Again we traded a lot of depth for 2 players and both had to work to make the trade worth it. You can basically take Myers and Bogo and call that a wash IMPO. Either way you traded 1 high end NHL player, 2 first round picks and the first pick in the 2nd round for Kane/Bogo. That is a lot.

Now here is where I disagree with you. You say we are doing what GMTM did but we aren't. We have 3 first round picks in 2019, we gave up none of them. Cliff Pu was recently ranked our 9th best prospect (which I disagree with, he's more like 12th). Cliff Pu's ceiling is 2nd line RW. I think though he probably turns into a 3rd line player which is all good and fine. Looking back though Zadorov was our best defensive prospect when he was traded. Compher is to Asplund. Roy is to Pilut. Armia is probably less talented Nylander. Lemieux is more talented Pekar. Roslovic is on par with Marcus Davidsson IMPO although I like Davidsson more. And yet all of those correlates are still with the team. We didn't trade Nylander or even Pekar.

Now let's talk the draft picks. Murray loved trading away first rounders and 2nd rounders. We gave up 1 2nd round draft pick in 2019. We have 3 firsts in 2019 unless you think St Louis and SJS will miss the playoffs which seems highly unlikely. So losing a 2nd doesn't matter as much and we can probably gauge that 2nd to be in the 38-42 range because Skinner will help the team and other roster moves. Then you have the 3rd round pick and the 6th round pick in 2020. Being late picks those players will need anywhere from 3minimum to 5 years to be NHL ready. That means you don't see them until 2023-2025. Those players, IF THEY HIT, are not playing NHL hockey for 5-7 years. Jack Eichel could be 28 before those picks even make the league. It is basically worthless, the 6th round pick is IMPO. the 3rd round pick you can re-acquire via trade if you want. You have 2 years.

In summary we gave up a 2/3rd line player down the road maybe. a 2nd round pick that again is a 2/3rd line player down the road maybe, and then 2 worthless draft picks for a 30goal scorer who just turned 26 and probably has 3-5 years of his prime left considering how well his skates. This trade was in no way at all like GMTM because we didn't give up good young prospects and picks. We gave up one decent prospect and then a whole lot of nothin. If we break them down into just their rounds we gave up 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th versus ROR trade where we gave 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd or Kane/Bogo where we did 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st. Big difference in my eyes and an absolute steal for Buffalo. 

To the 2nd bolded item, you do not know that for sure. If Botterill re-signs him we win. If Botterill can't and trades him, we win again. 

Edited August 3, 2018 by LGR4GM

[apuszczalowski]

9 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

It's not too far to suggest the possibility that if he doesn't work out, he would be one of the better deadline rental prospects available for contenders.  We could flip Skinner potentially for... a first round pick.

Then Botterill:

But are there really 4 Swedes worth taking in the 1st of next years draft?

[Eleven]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Does this mean Botterill did better than most gave him credit for in the Kane trade?

1st, 4th and O’Regan or a 2nd, 3rd, 6th and Pu?

He did better here than he did in the Kane trade.

The fact that the pick (in the Kane trade) became a first instead of a second is happenstance, and the fact that it's a pick next year instead of last month wasn't a good return.

[darksabre]

23 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Okay, this one was solid.

Better solid than liquid. 

[Huckleberry]

6 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He did better here than he did in the Kane trade.

The fact that the pick (in the Kane trade) became a first instead of a second is happenstance, and the fact that it's a pick next year instead of last month wasn't a good return.

And also a pick that is lottery protected, so it can slide to 2020 also.

[That Aud Smell]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

3.975mil is his buried contract. 

Ah, so. Hey - that's significant.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He did better here than he did in the Kane trade.

The fact that the pick (in the Kane trade) became a first instead of a second is happenstance, and the fact that it's a pick next year instead of last month wasn't a good return.

Agreed. Considering he gave up 2 picks in 2020, that's a steal. 

[...]

Great trade.  I liked JBots, but now I like him more.  I was at first a bit dubious as to how this happened, but the narrative makes sense - except for details on why Skinner was pretty much done in Raleigh.  Those making fun of his figure skating past - ridiculous.  That's like making fun of an engineer who aced their high-school math curriculum.

Re: the three first rounders, I think we should keep two of those and reserve the other for either a trade to help the D, or a deadline deal, if necessary.

There's a lot of new parts to this team, now, and I think in no way can we predict who is going to work well with who, but I hope the chemistry is right this time.  Here's hoping HCPH doesn't screw this up.

The only thing missing from this summer is Royal Blue home jerseys.  I'm seriously ready for the season to start at this point.  

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by ...

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

And also a pick that is lottery protected, so it can slide to 2020 also.

True but it seems highly unlikely SJS suddenly stop being a playoff team. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

Ah, so. Hey - that's significant.

IF we can sign Skinner to Kane like deal, then great. I would sign him to a 6.5mil X 5 year deal tomorrow. 

[WildCard]

Still amazed we didn't have to part with any of our 3 2019 1sts to make this happen. Then again, Waddell is the old Thrashers GM, so maybe we shouldn't be too shocked. 

The confusing thing is, this trade doesn't make any sense with their Hamilton trade. Seems like they went the opposite way on this one

[LGR4GM]

Well we can honestly say Casey or Eichel will be the best center Skinner has played with in the last 3 or 4 years. 

[shrader]

59 minutes ago, WildCard said:

If nothing else at least we can finally end all the bad Pu jokes 

Now we just need to get rid of the lame "Botterill hate CHL players" crap.  People should probably look up where Skinner played.

[bob_sauve28]

I honestly don't know what to think of this trade. Glad we got a goal scorer for this year. Don't feel we gave up too much, but where does it go from here? I'm not into throwing the bank at this guy. I hope this isn't a situation where we are fighting for last playoff spot so we have to keep him and then he signs with another team and we get nothing...and miss playoffs anyway. And if we give him a seven year deal for seven million and he fizzles two years from now, that will really suck. He will want a long term deal, not sure I'd be willing to do that. 

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Still amazed we didn't have to part with any of our 3 2019 1sts to make this happen. Then again, Waddell is the old Thrashers GM, so maybe we shouldn't be too shocked. 

The confusing thing is, this trade doesn't make any sense with their Hamilton trade. Seems like they went the opposite way on this one

What we don't know if how many teams Skinner said no too. He had a full NMC so he controlled his destiny. Might be we just got lucky and he wanted to go to Toronto or Buffalo and Toronto wasn't interested. 

1 minute ago, shrader said:

Now we just need to get rid of the lame "Botterill hate CHL players" crap.  People should probably look up where Skinner played.

He hates drafting them, after that, I don't think he cares. 

1 minute ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I honestly don't know what to think of this trade. Glad we got a goal scorer for this year. Don't feel we gave up too much, but where does it go from here? I'm not into throwing the bank at this guy. I hope this isn't a situation where we are fighting for last playoff spot so we have to keep him and then he signs with another team and we get nothing...and miss playoffs anyway. And if we give him a seven year deal for seven million and he fizzles two years from now, that will really suck. He will want a long term deal, not sure I'd be willing to do that. 

I'd give him 5 years at 6.5mil today. With Pominville coming off the cap next year, you basically just re-purpose that money to Skinner. 

[...]

I wouldn't offer him anything until he proves that he belongs here long term.

[Hoss]

I understand concerns about defensive abilities (or lack thereof). You want all-around players... but at some point you need guys who produce.

I’ve seen fanbases fall in love with too many guys who play a good “all-around game” but don’t produce at a useful clip.

I woke up this morning and had forgotten about this trade for a moment. As soon as I remembered I was ecstatic all over again. I do want an extension done sooner rather than later.

[LGR4GM]

Skinner's sh% standard deviation is 2.3 and his confidence interval is 10.7=+/-1.595 

[bob_sauve28]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I'd give him 5 years at 6.5mil today. With Pominville coming off the cap next year, you basically just re-purpose that money to Skinner. 

I'm cool with that. Anything longer and I'd try and trade him at deadline, which will be difficult if we are in running to make playoffs. If we have to let him walk, so be it. 

 

I'd almost be afraid of him doing too well (40 goals +) and wanting a huge deal that would be a millstone about our necks for a decade. No thanks! 

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, Sabre fan said:

Obviously JBotto has an agenda against OHL players but I kind of hate the thought of doing what EXGMTM was balsted for...giving young prospects for older established players that are only here for a year or two (Skinner will be gone next summer for sure...)

I'm not so sure.  Forget the money for a moment; from what I've read Skinner wanted out of Carolina because he was not being given top line minutes.  (The flip side of that is he's been described as a defensive black hole which is why he didn't get top minutes.)  In Buffalo he will almost assuredly be a winger for an elite center; if not Jack, then Casey, which if things project out as envisioned won't be 1 and 2 lines, but 1a and 1b.  So as long as he's in the top 6 and does his job (pot goals), he'll be happy.  I think he waived his NMC for two reasons:  Buffalo is close to his Toronto home, and with the Sabres he sees the best opportunity to become a star in this league.

Coming back to the money:  Can JBot make the money work?  He's got a lot of young players on ELCs a few highly paid stars, and a couple of albatross contracts.  He has firm commits of about $50M in salary cap for 2019-20.  There are two expiring UFA contracts:  Skinner and Pommer.  Pomminstein will not be renewed, so his salary can be used to give Skinner (and the RFAs) a salary bump.  Things get better after that season, so as long as he can make it work for 2019-20, I think JBot will be able to find the room to re-sign Skinner if he wants.

[bob_sauve28]

16 minutes ago, ... said:

I wouldn't offer him anything until he proves that he belongs here long term.

I get that, but you can never prove "long term." Signing big deals has a way of deactivating motivation for many people. He will be playing like its a contract year 

[...]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I get that, but you can never prove "long term." Signing big deals has a way of deactivating motivation for many people. He will be playing like its a contract year 

Some people are suggesting 5 year contracts before we even see how he plays with Eichel and/or for HCPH. There might be nothing there and then we have another crappy long term contract.  Let's see some games first before we start offering stuff.