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TRADE: Sabres acquire Jeff Skinner

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50 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

If I'm Skinner's agent I tell him, "don't sign anything until you score 85 goals on Jack's wing this season"

If he does that, JBot will be all

9e9.gif

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The only unknown now is goaltending.  Other than that, this team could make the playoffs.

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I think Carolina was with their backs against the wall on Skinner, they said they wanted to trade him.

Skinner supposed to have turned down the Kings, and maybe a few others, basically they took what they could get.

https://twitter.com/EASPORTSNHL/status/1025165676418236416/photo/1

Djods_BU4AAe2y6.jpg

Edited by Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, Eleven said:

The only unknown now is goaltending.  Other than that, this team could make the playoffs.

Eh there's still a ton of unknowns. We had so much turnover, anytime that happens there's a lot of unknown

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what JBOTT did this offseason

He got two LW for our top 6, got our bottom 6 stronger with Berglund ( who can fill in top6 )  and Sobotka.   

I'm getting to excited I should go to bed.

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2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

The only unknown now is goaltending.  Other than that, this team could make the playoffs.

Well, they've minimum added 4 new forwards to the mix this off-season (Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, & Skinner) and possibly a 5th (Thompson), & a new D-man (Dahlin).  Add in Mittelstadt & that is a lot of turnover.

With Kane & O'Reilly being the only losses from last year's F's.  (Hard to call Pouliot leaving a loss.)  Antipin & Falk the only "losses" on D.

Wouldn't put themin the dance just yet, but have shifted expectation up to 90-92 points.  1 more move & they could be REAL close.

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6 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Eh there's still a ton of unknowns. We had so much turnover, anytime that happens there's a lot of unknown

 Like the first time NHLers? I agree. Excellent move but not one of us knows how this is going to go.

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As far as how focused a fan is in general on the Sabres now versus the Sabres in the future, it's tough to be upset on any part of the spectrum, from Crusader to We've. 

We've is happy because the Sabres improved their team for this season and it only cost nameless futures and a prospect every team has several of. 

Crusader-people are happy because if it doesn't work out, there's no reason we won't get an equivalent package in futures back at the deadline. 

Skinner isn't going to be anyone's favorite player, but the ROR trade took a bite out of 

-Top six-caliber players who can find and make a variety of hockey passes, plays, shots-

to fill the bottom six garbage problem. Berglund and Sobotka upgrade Zemgus and Nolan but make the team worse at finding and executing passes and shots - the only passes they complete are the safe, low-ceiling ones presented right in front of them, and this team needed to do something to address the fact that it's still in another league from the good NHL teams with respect to creating hockey plays, and this trade attempts to address that with a player who can skate, pass, and shoot, all three better than average, all three to create things from nothing. 

Jeff will play like Derek Roy but if Roy was a winger who was hoped to be top 4-5 in scoring on the team, not the 1C. 

I am going to enjoy watching him skate. I watch Canes games just to watch him skate. 

You obviously have to try playing him with Jack first. It could be electric. It could be bad, as he does like to have the puck, a lot. If he doesn't settle in with Jack, you can give a huge boost to your shelter line with Casey and Erod/Okposo. 65% ozone starts, minimize competition, they'll have a blast. 

I still like Sheary-Eichel-Reinhart for top offensive line. 

Overall, this makes it way easier for the team to improve if not everything goes right (none of the kids in Roch break through + Eich is still at 75-77 point pace + Mitts is only good for 30 points instead of 60 etc) 

Housley's nickname has to be Philhouse now, no?

Jack is Bart in every way

Nelson is Nelson HA HA

We can do big things with this. 

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Wonder how this effects the PP1?

Had been expecting Mittelstadt to take the O'Reilly slot.  Now expecting Skinner to take Okposo's spot on the right boards.  Does Casey still take ROR's spot or Kyle?  Didn't like the way the PP worked when he was there last year w/ ROR on the boards.

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49 minutes ago, Weave said:

Wasn't Buffalo rumored to be in on Skinner leading up to the draft though?  I seem to recall that was the case.  It seems this one needed time in the slow cooker.

I believe the rumor was they asked for him in an O'Reilly deal but a deal with Carolina had to be done post July 1st. So maybe once O'Reilly went to STL it really delayed talks between the teams?

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25 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Wouldn't put themin the dance just yet, but have shifted expectation up to 90-92 points.

Back to familiar territory:  THE RACE TO 9TH PLACE

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQcoNKpPCeyrs1pp1kqsRZ

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Ok, this deal makes me want to watch this team pretty badly now....I just want to see him resigned to a new contract asap. I'll take some below average defensive play in exchange for elite speed and good goal scoring ability.

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Deals with immediate need on Jack's LW. Bots appears to have addressed LW overall for this coming season at least.

Not really sure how the line up shakes out yet but at least we are addressing some needs for the coming season.

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Shooting his career average last season would have given him 30 goals, FWIW.

 

pi brought up +/-, right? Let's check that out - it's a large enough number you have to look at it. 

His team's +/- was bad, but he has a disproportionate amount of (-) for his time. ie, pi's TRPM would still be negative. 

The team's save percentage was .897, which is bad. 

Jeff's expected goals stats are as follows:
xGF:56
xGA:45
xGF%:55.5%
compared to his actual
GF:42
GA: 60
GF%: 41%

His on-ice shooting percentage wasn't terrible at over 8%, but his PDO was 94.5%. The tank-Sabres team was 4% better than this. This means that Jeff's goalie's save percentage while he was on the ice was about .870.

Backing up for folks who don't know, GF/GA are just how many goals your team scores and allows at 5v5. For Jeff, that number is bad. But both underperform what is expected, shown by the xGF stats. This stat is calculated by taking into account where the shots on goal come from while you're on the ice, and weighing them by league average save percentage/shooting percentage from those spots. So if Jeff hopped on the ice and created the events he does with league average players at every other position for both teams, he would have had a positive plus-minus, and would have even been better than suggested likely, because his shot is far above league average. But his team's notoriously bad goaltending gave up 20 more goals than it would have if it was league average, adjusted for shot quality. And he was a little unlucky shooting after being pretty lucky the season before. So, his +/- tanked. 

This is not an argument that he is good at defense, he's not, but he's also a wing who doesn't have a lot of d-zone responsibilities. So for now, I would say that we don't need to worry much about that +/- in front of those goalies. 

His number suppression might also be because of playing with Derek Ryan all season, he appears to be his main center. I was wrong about Staal the year before too - he was with Victor Rask all season. This guy is probably going to lurve Jack Eichel. 

I know some people don't like these, but they're neat at least: 
skinnje92

skinnje92

skinnerr.jpg

He plays LW, so there's not much change from his side defensively. 

skinnje92

OMG WE HAVE A PLAYER ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THESE CHARTS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER 

Carolina is a well-structured team, and he creates events without dragging very many people down at all, and tends to slightly improve their shot ratios, according to that chart.

Pardon my rambling

Edited by Randall Flagg
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Most people on this thread who talked about him as a replacement have mentioned ROR.  He's actually Kane's replacement.

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Those three first-rounders for next year are still sitting there, tantalizingly... perhaps JBOTs is not yet done?

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Just now, Doohickie said:

Most people on this thread who talked about him as a replacement have mentioned ROR.  He's actually Kane's replacement.

Very likely, and he's not exactly filling Kane's skates in the two-way game.  But with what the Sabres gave up, it's a very, very good deal.  Instantly gives either Eichel or Mittlestadt some help.

For those who don't think this is a good deal, well, head over to a Hurrican'ts board and watch the gnashing of teeth.

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And Sabres got Sheary as well, plus still 3 number 1s, now trade ZB for a young D..

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Botterill says they haven't talked contract and won't right now. Says that's a conversation for "down the road."

Noted that him waiving his NMC shows he's excited to be in Buffalo.

Edited by Hoss

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I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Bogo will have his best year as a Sabre this year.

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Hate to see movement of Pu. 

He might not be a 1st liner but I thought he was a solid #2. 

 

Sorry...I just needed to let one more of those fly as he heads South. Gonna miss ya buddy. 

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