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Adverse Effects of the Lottery


SwampD

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I don't ever remember a time when there was more talk of teams tanking than right now. In years past there would be maybe a couple of bad teams and then one that was really bad that you knew was going to get the first pick.

 

Now, teams that are just out of the playoffs sell off assets because they want a better chance at that #1 (or #2, or #3,...) pick.

 

Has the lottery actually caused more teams to tank each year? I think so.

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Tanking has definitely increased in frequency.  In my fanhood I remember Pittsburgh tanking to get Mario, Quebec for Lindros, Ottawa for Daigle.  And that was it.  There weren't obvious tanks other than those.  And those teams were lambasted by fans around the rest of the league.  Now, so many teams have participated in it that it has become accepted behavior.

Edited by We've
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I wonder if the talent level and ease of identifying it has increased? Like... Are more "franchise" players available at the top of every draft than there used to be?

Or at least more guys thought of as making an impact right away and talked up to be franchise players rather than very good players. Scouting is definetly much more public.
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I hate the lottery system for the reasons you outlined SwampD.  It is designed to encourage tanking.

 

It should be scrapped.

 

I'm not sure it was designed to encourage tanking.  The league story was they implemented it in response to Ottawa's tank for Daigle.  I think teams have learned that it can be gamed though.

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I'm not sure it was designed to encourage tanking.  The league story was they implemented it in response to Ottawa's tank for Daigle.  I think teams have learned that it can be gamed though.

 

Yeah.  I get that.  The league, in their infinite wisdom (sarcasm, just to be clear), wanted to discourage it by making it less likely that last place would get the 1st overall pick.  It backfired on them when the opposite happened with more teams willing to take the chance at 1st overall.  

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Or at least more guys thought of as making an impact right away and talked up to be franchise players rather than very good players. Scouting is definetly much more public.

 

It's more public (due to the internet), but is it any more accurate?  I assume that the NHL teams have had the kind of prospect data we see nowadays for much longer than we've been seeing it.

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Yeah.  I get that.  The league, in their infinite wisdom (sarcasm, just to be clear), wanted to discourage it by making it less likely that last place would get the 1st overall pick.  It backfired on them when the opposite happened with more teams willing to take the chance at 1st overall.  

 

Yup, expanding the lottery changed the incentive structure...in the exact opposite way the league intended. It also served to castrate the trade deadline because 1st round picks for teams "in the hunt" are significantly more valuable. 

 

 

The salary cap also probably factors in. Teams (those in a position to do so) can't spend their way out of a lack of young talent / poor drafting. Makes high end prospects worth that much more.

 

Absolutely. There is nothing more valuable than a star player on an ELC and under team control as an RFA.

All the time!

 

Buffal..... oh

Edmont....hm

Toront.....nope

Island.....huh

Colorad.....damn

 

Just like rebuilding "the right way" is successful all the time!

 

Detroit...uh

Ottawa....ugh

Florida...whoops

Vancouer....whelps

 

This is fun, isn't it? 

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I don't ever remember a time when there was more talk of teams tanking than right now. In years past there would be maybe a couple of bad teams and then one that was really bad that you knew was going to get the first pick.

 

Now, teams that are just out of the playoffs sell off assets because they want a better chance at that #1 (or #2, or #3,...) pick.

 

Has the lottery actually caused more teams to tank each year? I think so.

If it does play a role in bubble teams that are thinking they'll come out on the wrong end deciding to sell off, it still probably keeps the very bottom away from truly tanking. I don't see another team pulling what the Sabres did to be that bad on purpose. Ask Colorado if 48 points were worth Cale Makar at 4th overall - no team would do THAT on purpose again. So I guess it depends on which scenario bothers you more, whether or not the lottery is a good or a bad thing.

 

This year is kinda unique in that there are about four truly, truly horrendously mismanaged franchises, for various reasons: Buffalo/Arizona/Ottawa/Montreal. As far as I can tell usually the league only has 1-2 teams at a time that look like these 4 do on the ice.

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Has tanking increased? Yes, absolutely.

 

The salary cap also probably factors in. Teams (those in a position to do so) can't spend their way out of a lack of young talent / poor drafting. Makes high end prospects worth that much more.

I think this is part of it. I think the real root causes stem from the consequences of the modern CBA.

 

Long term contracts designed to fit under the cap drastically reduced the number of UFAs. GMs can't rely on the dried up UFA market to improve their teams every year.

 

This has occurred because players don't hold out and leave for "big" money as much anymore. The combination of revenue sharing and salary cap has enabled most teams to afford to keep their best players.

 

Trading has changed as a result of the CBA. Because teams are on a more even playing field financially, teams generally don't salary dump good players. Only underperforming players get dumped, trading them doesn't directly improve your team, and trading for them means you hurt your own cap.

 

Without the financial aspect involved in good player trades, the only way to trade for player talent is to trade away player talent or picks. So you must spend players to get players. If you don't want to do that, you leverage your future picks.

 

The only way to acquire elite talent without giving up current talent is to draft or or trade draft picks. In either case, teams benefit from good draft position.

 

So if you're not going to the playoffs, and you don't want to trade your existing talent, your best move is to better your draft positon. Mostly because you can't rely on UFAs.

Edited by IKnowPhysics
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Just like rebuilding "the right way" is successful all the time!

 

Detroit...uh

Ottawa....ugh

Florida...whoops

Vancouer....whelps

 

This is fun, isn't it? 

 

Detroit? Didn't they just miss the playoffs for the first time in over 20 years? haven't they been one of the most consistent and model franchises for those years? I wouldn't use them as an example.

 

The issue with Ottawa and Florida was the same as its been for Arizona and Sabres before TP, Financial resources have held these franchises back. They don't have the money to spend on the better players and often have to move very good players when their contracts become too big. Vancouver has had some poor management, and they have tried a few times to extend their window but their stars are too old and just started "rebuilding"

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Who said the team will turn around immediately? Think even the most optimistic thought it would take 2 or 3 years

 

Serious question, what teams are tanking this season?

theres a difference between tanking and rebuilding, although today it seems there isn't one. Tanking involves dumping talent for picks and prospects with no intention of fielding a winning team in order to get the best draft pick. Usually this starts in the offseason and the teams go into the year expecting to lose

 

Rebuilding involves selling off talent for picks and prospects which can be done at the deadline but teams will usually in the offseason still try and put a competitive team on the ice

Retooling is when teams dump talent for prospects/picks, but instead of relying on those picks and prospects to build for the future, they use some of those assetts to obtain other talent to speed up the rebuild process.

 

many will say Ottawa is a team tanking, but thats more of a rebuild/retooling as they went into the year intending to compete and started making moves when they found out their window was closing. They didn't go into the year expecting to be in the lottery for the #1 pick

 

 

I also don't believe its the lottery that has pushed tanking, its more the salary cap and teams finances. There are many teams that are struggling to break even and can't afford to spend big money so they need the draft for cheap high end talent and stay away from FA. Some are also in markets that arent as appealing and have to overpay for FAs. The salary cap is also putting lots of restraints on teams if they make a bad signing or two. A couple bad signings and your in cap jail which can involve having to dump players and take cap hits that involve needing talent at low salaries (like rookie deals)

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