TrueBlueGED Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Unfortunately, none of these stats is a great predictor of how someone will fare in the NFL. Go back and look at the college stats for Marino and Favre. Well yea, there is no golden goose for QB projections. And even with strongly correlated stats, there are going to be exceptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 And look, completion percentage on long throws, whatever. Jackson's WRs were routinely freaking HALTING in their routes while wide open for deep passes. They had to veer way out of the way to catch so many of them. Watching the guy play QB is ugly. I wouldn't say it's useless. For example, some drops might be due to WRs failing at the catch point, and obviously those aren't on the QB. On the other hand, some drops are surely do to ball placement, which is on the QB. On the flip side, some WRs will catch balls that are thrown inaccurately. If you accept that a chunk of this stuff will wash out over time and distances (sort of like good/bad penalty calls...), then it's still a piece of the puzzle to look at. Y/A is actually one of my favorite stats in the NFL, but it is harder to evaluate in college because of system and competition diversity. I still think it's useful, but like any stat, should not be taken as truth in a vacuum. And ball placement is probably the thing that Jackson does worst of all of these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I believe Jackson had the highest or second highest drop percentage with Rosen. I don't really care about that stat either - there were four games that stood out in my mind with Jackson. Some were against great teams like Clemson. But not only were his "stats" bad - he needed garbage time to pull them up to bad from his first three quarters. The dude shrinks when the opposing defenses are good (And how good was Mississippi State this year? that was another mediocre showing). And he doesn't keep his eyes downfield when he takes off, which is a no-no. But he and Allen need to show that they can throw accurately from the pocket, had chances to, and failed miserably, so I just don't waste my picks on them unless they really fall. I have him third, because I think he's better than the other guys, whose throwing motions I also hate (Rudolphs isn't that bad I guess). But he has far more accuracy than those guys. I think I mentioned in this thread though, that it does scream "strip-sack". Whoa whoa whoa now. I get the accuracy concerns, but this is not true. One of the reasons I bristle at him being called a "running quarterback" is because he does a great job at keeping his eyes up while improvising behind the line. It was an issue in his first year as a starter, but he showed tremendous development in this area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 (edited) Whoa whoa whoa now. I get the accuracy concerns, but this is not true. One of the reasons I bristle at him being called a "running quarterback" is because he does a great job at keeping his eyes up while improvising behind the line. It was an issue in his first year as a starter, but he showed tremendous development in this area. I didn't see it in the 4-5 games I saw, but I'll concede if you're convinced. I gotsta go now but good talk True and Liger Edited February 19, 2018 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Well yea, there is no golden goose for QB projections. And even with strongly correlated stats, there are going to be exceptions. Right, I would expect a QB's completion % to be lower if he threw more 20+ yard routes than another who had more 5-10 yarders. So maybe's that's the case with Allen although I don't know for sure. Too many other factors as well including quality of receivers, opposition defenses, offensive schemes, weather, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 (edited) I didn't see it in the 4-5 games I saw, but I'll concede if you're convinced. I gotsta go now but good talk True and Liger When he actually runs, no he doesn't keep his eyes downfield. When is rolls out or steps up in a broken pocket he absolutely does. He does drop his eyes until he's decided he's running. Up until that point he's thinking about throwing. I would say he is more likely to throw then run on plays where the pocket collapses. I will say that Jackson throwing to the sidelines within about 15yrds is not good. He overthrows or out throws his receivers. Right, I would expect a QB's completion % to be lower if he threw more 20+ yard routes than another who had more 5-10 yarders. So maybe's that's the case with Allen although I don't know for sure. Too many other factors as well including quality of receivers, opposition defenses, offensive schemes, weather, etc. Allen's footwork is terrible and he guns every pass because he has no touch. So you are either being overthrown or breaking your fingers. Mason Rudolph Edited February 19, 2018 by SkuggaLiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 When he actually runs, no he doesn't keep his eyes downfield. When is rolls out or steps up in a broken pocket he absolutely does. He does drop his eyes until he's decided he's running. Up until that point he's thinking about throwing. I would say he is more likely to throw then run on plays where the pocket collapses. I will say that Jackson throwing to the sidelines within about 15yrds is not good. He overthrows or out throws his receivers. Allen's footwork is terrible and he guns every pass because he has no touch. So you are either being overthrown or breaking your fingers. Mason Rudolph No touch at all ... https://twitter.com/Steelersdepot/status/957368682119806976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsnaut.com%2F2018%2F01%2Fwatch-josh-allen-shows-off-gorgeous-touch-on-td-pass-in-senior-bowl%2F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 No touch at all ... https://twitter.com/Steelersdepot/status/957368682119806976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsnaut.com%2F2018%2F01%2Fwatch-josh-allen-shows-off-gorgeous-touch-on-td-pass-in-senior-bowl%2F Oh I wanna play "gotcha" too. Quick say something that I can find a video on that disproves the thing you said! Great, he had some touch on one throw to the back of the endzone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Oh I wanna play "gotcha" too. Quick say something that I can find a video on that disproves the thing you said! Great, he had some touch on one throw to the back of the endzone. You made it sound like he has no touch at all. Obviously, the potential is there or the scouts wouldn't have him rated so highly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 You made it sound like he has no touch at all. Obviously, the potential is there or the scouts wouldn't have him rated so highly. He doesn't have great touch. Especially on short throws. There's quite a few he just over throws. Jackson and Allen both in this video Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 He doesn't have great touch. Especially on short throws. There's quite a few he just over throws. Jackson and Allen both in this video Most scouts have Allen rated ahead of Jackson - not all, but most. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760136-2018-nfl-draft-trade-rumors-bills-targeting-top-10-pick-they-like-josh-allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Most scouts have Allen rated ahead of Jackson - not all, but most. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760136-2018-nfl-draft-trade-rumors-bills-targeting-top-10-pick-they-like-josh-allen Im very aware of where scouts rank Allen. I don't agree with them. He's got a big arm and scouts think that's great. He makes bad decisions, he doesn't consistently throw from a strong base, he panics in the pocket, he stares down receivers. Scouts like him for 2 reasons. He is their ideal size. He has their ideal arm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Im very aware of where scouts rank Allen. I don't agree with them. He's got a big arm and scouts think that's great. He makes bad decisions, he doesn't consistently throw from a strong base, he panics in the pocket, he stares down receivers. Scouts like him for 2 reasons. He is their ideal size. He has their ideal arm. I'd wager that the scouts have every piece of game footage available of both Jackson and Allen. I also have to believe that the Bills' scouts will do their due diligence on all QBs available and be prepared to make the correct decision for the team. With that being said, if we don't trade up and Allen falls to 21/22, I'd be taking him. But he won't make it that far down. My opinion only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I'd wager that the scouts have every piece of game footage available of both Jackson and Allen. I also have to believe that the Bills' scouts will do their due diligence on all QBs available and be prepared to make the correct decision for the team. With that being said, if we don't trade up and Allen falls to 21/22, I'd be taking him. But he won't make it that far down. My opinion only.I hope he doesn't because at 21 I wouldn't touch him. He's not good and needs 2 years behind a vet at least. Idc what the pundits making mocks think. Allen isn't good. For every highlight there's 3 plays where you say wtf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 (edited) I hope he doesn't because at 21 I wouldn't touch him. He's not good and needs 2 years behind a vet at least. Idc what the pundits making mocks think. Allen isn't good. For every highlight there's 3 plays where you say wtf. You mean like Aaron Rodgers ? Edited February 19, 2018 by Gramps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 You mean like Aaron Rodgers ?Idk if Aaron Rogers looked like Allen pre draft. I didn't follow football drafts as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 You mean like Aaron Rodgers ? Idk if Aaron Rogers looked like Allen pre draft. I didn't follow football drafts as much. Rodgers was projected to be the top pick. Obviously he wasn't picked there, but he was highly regarded And just because he sat for two years, behind a HoF QB, doesn't mean he needed to. It also doesn't mean Rodgers Sits => HoF, so Allen Sits => Is Rodgers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Rodgers was projected to be the top pick. Obviously he wasn't picked there, but he was highly regarded And just because he sat for two years, behind a HoF QB, doesn't mean he needed to. It also doesn't mean Rodgers Sits => HoF, so Allen Sits => Is Rodgers Replace Allen's name with anyone in this year's draft and some have Allen as the top pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Replace Allen's name with anyone in this year's draft and some have Allen as the top pick. Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Huh? I don't think any of the QBs selected in the 1st round this year will be starting right away so they'll be sitting just like Rodgers did.. And you said Rodgers was projected as the top pick - by some I'm sure all - not all. Allen is also projected by some to be the top pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I don't think any of the QBs selected in the 1st round this year will be starting right away so they'll be sitting just like Rodgers did.. And you said Rodgers was projected as the top pick - by some I'm sure all - not all. Allen is also projected by some to be the top pick. So Allen is Rodgers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 So Allen is Rodgers? Allen could very well be Rodgers in a few years. Who knows ? Did you think Dak Prescott would be as good as he is now ? The answer is no one knows until they hit the NFL and some envision Allen as the next Elway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Because it's luck Credit to True, he's been saying the QB process is luck for years now, and he's right. Figure I should give him some credit here, seeing as he's rarely correct Allen could very well be Rodgers in a few years. Who knows ? Did you think Dak Prescott would be as good as he is now ? The answer is no one knows until they hit the NFL and some envision Allen as the next Elway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Look, just like the NHL draft, I'm giving my opinion. Allen looks like garbage. I really don't care if pundits like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted February 20, 2018 Report Share Posted February 20, 2018 I wish I could find drop percentages. Pro Football Focus tells me this: Jackson 8.0% Rosen 7.3% Mayfield: 6.1% Allen 4.8% Darnold: 4.6% Rudolph 4.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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