Buffalo Bills 2018-2019

[LGR4GM]

Actually I do want to say something because I have seen a lot of this in various places for various players since Allen did what he has. 

Josh Allen, is the exception to every rule when it comes to prospects. This doubly applies to QB prospects and young QBs. If you put 100 QBs into Josh's position and asked them to replicate what he has done, probably 95 of them fail. Mac Jones is a great example where ppl talk about his first year and compare it to Allen and are like "LOOK! He was better so he will be better!" but it ignores the outlier that is Allen's growth. Allen should have failed like so many athletic QBs before him who were never able to hone their brain and mechanics to make up for their deficiencies. Allen overcome that and continues to improve because he is the exception, not the rule. Jones will be probably be the rule, it is highly unlikely he sees the year over year growth Allen has had (and might still have). 

Bottom line is, yes many of us were wrong on Allen but that isn't because of us, that is because Allen is the exception to every rule that exists about QBs. He's a magical unicorn. To quote what was said on twitter years ago "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself" and they did, because if we look at a bell curve of where Allen should be, the 95% of options in the middle make him lesser Trubisky, the 2.5% at the bottom make him Blaine Gabbert, but the 2.5% at the top... that makes him Josh Allen. 

The only good thing about Allen losing to KC, it will fuel him to be even better. What does better Josh Allen look like? See NE playoff game or that last drive in the Chiefs game. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually I do want to say something because I have seen a lot of this in various places for various players since Allen did what he has. 

Josh Allen, is the exception to every rule when it comes to prospects. This doubly applies to QB prospects and young QBs. If you put 100 QBs into Josh's position and asked them to replicate what he has done, probably 95 of them fail. Mac Jones is a great example where ppl talk about his first year and compare it to Allen and are like "LOOK! He was better so he will be better!" but it ignores the outlier that is Allen's growth. Allen should have failed like so many athletic QBs before him who were never able to hone their brain and mechanics to make up for their deficiencies. Allen overcome that and continues to improve because he is the exception, not the rule. Jones will be probably be the rule, it is highly unlikely he sees the year over year growth Allen has had (and might still have). 

Bottom line is, yes many of us were wrong on Allen but that isn't because of us, that is because Allen is the exception to every rule that exists about QBs. He's a magical unicorn. To quote what was said on twitter years ago "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself" and they did, because if we look at a bell curve of where Allen should be, the 95% of options in the middle make him lesser Trubisky, the 2.5% at the bottom make him Blaine Gabbert, but the 2.5% at the top... that makes him Josh Allen. 

The only good thing about Allen losing to KC, it will fuel him to be even better. What does better Josh Allen look like? See NE playoff game or that last drive in the Chiefs game. 

I hope people aren't using the bold to handwave away what really here.

A large segment of the internet thought they had unlocked a magic formula where they could calculate how good a quarterback would be.

Josh Allen levelled the playing field, proving that traditional scouting practices have value and spreadsheet scouting is not infallible.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I hope people aren't using the bold to handwave away what really here.

A large segment of the internet thought they had unlocked a magic formula where they could calculate how good a quarterback would be.

Josh Allen levelled the playing field, proving that traditional scouting practices have value and spreadsheet scouting is not infallible.

I would trust the calculation with that 95% before trusting my scouting staff to find the outlier if I am being honest. Great examples come from hockey consistently, scouts being down on a guy like Brayden Point even though the production says draft him earlier. Owen Beck is my current candidate for the 2022 draft for this where the Scouts are not as high on him as they should be because they didn't get to watch him play last year. Watching players (AKA traditional scouting) is a tool in your evaluation toolbox, if the eyes don't match the numbers, it is the same thing as if the numbers don't match the eyes. For every Allen there are 20 Gabbert's. That is why it is so important to provide tons of context for the numbers (why they exist) and also to watch the person (how do they look and what are they like in person). 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would trust the calculation with that 95% before trusting my scouting staff to find the outlier if I am being honest. Great examples come from hockey consistently, scouts being down on a guy like Brayden Point even though the production says draft him earlier. Owen Beck is my current candidate for the 2022 draft for this where the Scouts are not as high on him as they should be because they didn't get to watch him play last year. Watching players (AKA traditional scouting) is a tool in your evaluation toolbox, if the eyes don't match the numbers, it is the same thing as if the numbers don't match the eyes. For every Allen there are 20 Gabbert's. That is why it is so important to provide tons of context for the numbers (why they exist) and also to watch the person (how do they look and what are they like in person). 

We aren't disagreeing except maybe in degrees.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

We aren't disagreeing except maybe in degrees.

[Hank]

On 4/26/2018 at 9:47 PM, WildCard said:

I will leave this board for a year if Allen is a starter in this league in 2022 Occam's Razor: Because they're dumb

I found this humorous 😝

 

Wildcard?

Edited February 1, 2022 by Hank

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Hank said:

I found this humorous 😝

 

Wildcard?

Great.  The board hasn't lost enough good posters over the last lost decade, maybe we can run a few more off for year's old hyperbolic takes in the heat of the moment.  😒

[WildCard]

10 minutes ago, Hank said:

I found this humorous 😝

 

Wildcard?

Well, I do post a lot less than I used to 😅

Never been more happy to be wrong. Maybe jeffismagic was right, I really am a no-football knowing moron

[Hank]

9 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Well, I do post a lot less than I used to 😅

Never been more happy to be wrong. Maybe jeffismagic was right, I really am a no-football knowing moron

Love your attitude about it. We got very lucky with Allen. It seems Beane is a good GM. 

[WildCard]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Great.  The board hasn't lost enough good posters over the last lost decade, maybe we can run a few more off for year's old hyperbolic takes in the heat of the moment.  😒

Eh gonna take a lot more than my old ***** takes to run me off lol thanks though

[Randall Flagg]

I not only thought allen would suck, I thought allen AND mahomes would suck 

[Buffalonill]

27 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I not only thought allen would suck, I thought allen AND mahomes would suck 

 Please tell me  You think Jordan love is gonna be a bust

Edited February 1, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Please tell me  You think Jordan love is gonna be a bust

How much is it worth to you for him to do so?

[Buffalonill]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

How much is it worth to you for him to do so?

[Randall Flagg]

49 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Please tell me  You think Jordan love is gonna be a bust

Haha you're in luck, I unironically think Jordan love blows 

[Norcal]

I was posting on this subject on TBD at the time.

I wanted Baker before the draft because he had some swagger and I believed he was what the Bills needed. He was also touted as the most ready QB coming out. 

Moot point since he went first overall.

By the time Allen was picked I was open to the idea because I fell in love with that arm. 

I'm not calling anyone out but the video posted early on in this thread of Allen was a pretty convincing argument FOR drafting him.

You could see all the throws he makes, the arm strength, the competitiveness, the early hurdle work. Not much not to love actually. 

I've been all in from the moment they said his name and I'm proud to say it. 

[nfreeman]

I'd just like those who were so sure that Allen was going to stink to pause for a minute before mocking others' posts on other topics.  We've all made plenty of mistakes here.

 

[SwampD]

On 1/31/2022 at 2:26 PM, inkman said:

How many TEs are better than Knox?  Kelce, Kittle and? 

That drop vs KC can’t happen. I’m sure it was Josh’s fault somehow.

On 2/1/2022 at 9:59 AM, LGR4GM said:

Actually I do want to say something because I have seen a lot of this in various places for various players since Allen did what he has. 

Josh Allen, is the exception to every rule when it comes to prospects. This doubly applies to QB prospects and young QBs. If you put 100 QBs into Josh's position and asked them to replicate what he has done, probably 95 of them fail. Mac Jones is a great example where ppl talk about his first year and compare it to Allen and are like "LOOK! He was better so he will be better!" but it ignores the outlier that is Allen's growth. Allen should have failed like so many athletic QBs before him who were never able to hone their brain and mechanics to make up for their deficiencies. Allen overcome that and continues to improve because he is the exception, not the rule. Jones will be probably be the rule, it is highly unlikely he sees the year over year growth Allen has had (and might still have). 

Bottom line is, yes many of us were wrong on Allen but that isn't because of us, that is because Allen is the exception to every rule that exists about QBs. He's a magical unicorn. To quote what was said on twitter years ago "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself" and they did, because if we look at a bell curve of where Allen should be, the 95% of options in the middle make him lesser Trubisky, the 2.5% at the bottom make him Blaine Gabbert, but the 2.5% at the top... that makes him Josh Allen. 

The only good thing about Allen losing to KC, it will fuel him to be even better. What does better Josh Allen look like? See NE playoff game or that last drive in the Chiefs game. 

To the bold. Bad beats happen as often as the odds tell us they do.

[Eleven]

10 hours ago, SwampD said:

That drop vs KC can’t happen. I’m sure it was Josh’s fault somehow.

To the bold. Bad beats happen as often as the odds tell us they do.

Heh.  I think I wrote that we were hoping he'd turn into Trubisky or something like that.