Buffalo Bills 2018-2019

[Kruppstahl]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

There are plenty of good posters, you just have to be able to weed through a lot of garbage to find it.  I haven't actually clicked on the Bills forum in probably about a year at this point, so those weeds must be as tall as a house.

They are tall as a house, and much thicker since the Buffalo Bills website forum closed.  That instigated a great migration of ignorant Bills fans over to TBD, weakening the gene pool even further than it already was.

My complaint with the place is that for the most part, it is not a forum for intelligently discussing Bills issues in an objective manner.  Rather, it functions as a "booster club" for fans who seek approval from like minded posters all engaging in the same group think all the time.

Yesterday, one poster straight up accused someone of "not being a fan of the team" b/c that person dared to suggest Josh Allen might not be the Chosen One after all.  

On top of this, at least half of the posters there operate on about a 5th grade grammatical/comprehension level and that makes spending time there tough.

 

 

 

[Kruppstahl]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Allen showed a high compete level, his desire to win is obvious.    Haven't seen that from a Bill's QB since Kelly.     He almost singlehandedly willed his team to a win, that's a great sign, and gives me faith that he'll improve his weaknesses as he develops.   

All he talked about in the post-game presser was about the plays he wanted back, he took ownership, and he looked really upset about the loss... he's a gamer.     I'd be concerned if he blew it off and gave canned boilerplate answers, but he didn't.      

What is concerning is that what we saw yesterday--the highs and the lows--is who he has been for his entire football career, and why he was a controversial project type of draft pick.

He is a player of extremes.  He will leave a TD on the field b/c he can't execute a really simple pass to a wide open receiver while under no duress, but then he'll manufacture something special on a busted play.  

As someone said, he will need to iron out the rough spots in his game if he is going to stick in the league.

How long will he get?  That is the question!  EJ Manuel got a whopping 14 games and then his career was over in Buffalo.

Josh will get the rest of this year, and he'll be the starter for Game 1 next year.  At some point next year, he will need to put it together.  He probably won't get beyond next year to do that, and the hook may come before the season ends.  It all depends on how he performs.

 

 

 

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, Hoss said:

One of the huge differences that seems to be more and more evident over the last few years in QB success is coaching.

The three most obvious situations are with the LA Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts.

Jared Goff looked bad as a rookie. The team fires Jeff Fisher and brings in Sean McVay who was credited with making something out of Washington's QBs for a few years. Goff has turned into a star under McVay.

With Indy and Philly it's intertwined. Doug Pederson got a ton of credit for Carson Wentz and his MVP season last year (he would've won had he not got hurt). Eventually they went on to win the Super Bowl getting stellar play from Nick Foles. In Indy Andrew Luck had battled injuries and some not-so-impressive play for several years. Frank Reich leaves Philly to lead Luck and Indy. Now Luck is playing at a near-MVP level and Wentz & Foles both took steps back along with the Eagles as a team.

This is all kind of obvious, but I think it's a bigger emphasis than we think. Everyone gives Andy Reid credit with Mahomes.

So do we believe McDermott and Daboll are the right fit for Allen? I'm not confident in McDermott. I've been indifferent with some positive vibes with Daboll. I've seen his play calling put the team in position to win and execution simply fail. At some point if you're consistently failing to execute a gameplan than the gameplan isn't right for that squad, but that's hard to judge with such a talentless group.

Allen's development will be more on the coaching staff than anything else once at least a decent level of talent is around him.

If I could only hug a single post for the rest of my life, this is the one I'd hug. 

Specifically on Goff, even watching him now you still see some of the glaring flaws that made him terrible as a rookie. It's just that McVay is friggin brilliant and Goff is rarely in situations where his flaws come to light. 

[Kruppstahl]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Allen showed a high compete level, his desire to win is obvious.    Haven't seen that from a Bill's QB since Kelly.     He almost singlehandedly willed his team to a win, that's a great sign, and gives me faith that he'll improve his weaknesses as he develops.   

All he talked about in the post-game presser was about the plays he wanted back, he took ownership, and he looked really upset about the loss... he's a gamer.     I'd be concerned if he blew it off and gave canned boilerplate answers, but he didn't.      

Totally agree with all of the bolded; these are the intangibles I referenced in my first post a few pages back.  Either a player has these or he doesn't, and I think Josh does.  That's a good sign.

Ultimately however, that will not be enough to make him a good QB.  He needs to do NFL QB things on every play.  Right now, most of the time, he is performing like a highly talented college QB with accuracy issues.

 

 

[Kruppstahl]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I watched a bit less than half of the game.  My take away during the portions I watched was, Allen is not timid like Tyrod, and seems to have some success at making things happen.  And after thinking about it while catching up on this thread it occurred to me that he probably most reminds me of Doug Flutie.

He does have a some Flutie in him; also some Brett Favre.

The thing is this: running around ad libbing on broken plays and leaning on athletic talent only takes you so far in the NFL as a QB.  At some point, you have to calm down, read defenses at the line pre-snap, learn to go through progressions, and accurately deliver the ball even when receivers are "covered" by college standards.  You need to throw them open, you need to anticipate where a receiver will be and throw the ball before he is there and see that picture in your mind pre-throw.

The QBs who can do that are the best in the league during any era, and the ones you want to have. 

That entire approach to the game is absent from Allen's game, and always has been.  

Is he going to find that against NFL defensive talent in the next year or so?  I would suggest "no" but time will tell!

 

 

 

[Randall Flagg]

Didn't LA run a no huddle but linger at the line so coaches could help Goff dissect things as long as possible?

[Hoss]

24 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If I could only hug a single post for the rest of my life, this is the one I'd hug. 

Specifically on Goff, even watching him now you still see some of the glaring flaws that made him terrible as a rookie. It's just that McVay is friggin brilliant and Goff is rarely in situations where his flaws come to light. 

And that’s the type of success I think you can expect from Allen if he ever gets there. I don’t imagine he’ll EVER be that flawless franchise QB we all want. And obviously you simply cannot have the success Goff has had for two straight seasons without being damn good and talented. I don’t think there’s a ton of doubt that Allen has talent.

[shrader]

I can't help but wonder how Luck would be doing if McDaniels hadn't flaked out on them last second.

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, shrader said:

I can't help but wonder how Luck would be doing if McDaniels hadn't flaked out on them last second.

/s ? 

Edited December 3, 2018 by WildCard

[Brawndo]

55 minutes ago, Hoss said:

One of the huge differences that seems to be more and more evident over the last few years in QB success is coaching.

The three most obvious situations are with the LA Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts.

Jared Goff looked bad as a rookie. The team fires Jeff Fisher and brings in Sean McVay who was credited with making something out of Washington's QBs for a few years. Goff has turned into a star under McVay.

With Indy and Philly it's intertwined. Doug Pederson got a ton of credit for Carson Wentz and his MVP season last year (he would've won had he not got hurt). Eventually they went on to win the Super Bowl getting stellar play from Nick Foles. In Indy Andrew Luck had battled injuries and some not-so-impressive play for several years. Frank Reich leaves Philly to lead Luck and Indy. Now Luck is playing at a near-MVP level and Wentz & Foles both took steps back along with the Eagles as a team.

This is all kind of obvious, but I think it's a bigger emphasis than we think. Everyone gives Andy Reid credit with Mahomes.

So do we believe McDermott and Daboll are the right fit for Allen? I'm not confident in McDermott. I've been indifferent with some positive vibes with Daboll. I've seen his play calling put the team in position to win and execution simply fail. At some point if you're consistently failing to execute a gameplan than the gameplan isn't right for that squad, but that's hard to judge with such a talentless group.

Allen's development will be more on the coaching staff than anything else once at least a decent level of talent is around him.

 

48 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If I could only hug a single post for the rest of my life, this is the one I'd hug. 

Specifically on Goff, even watching him now you still see some of the glaring flaws that made him terrible as a rookie. It's just that McVay is friggin brilliant and Goff is rarely in situations where his flaws come to light. 

The frustrating thing about the coaching situation is that McVay and Kyle Shanahan were hired the same offseason as McDermott and Frank Reich was one of their interviews as well. 

The league is and was rapidly moving towards offensive minded coaches and the Bills hired a DC as HC who famously said “Where we live you have to be able to run the ball” 

[Hoss]

23 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

The frustrating thing about the coaching situation is that McVay and Kyle Shanahan were hired the same offseason as McDermott and Frank Reich was one of their interviews as well. 

The league is and was rapidly moving towards offensive minded coaches and the Bills hired a DC as HC who famously said “Where we live you have to be able to run the ball” 

I don’t think McVay or Shanahan were considering Buffalo. I think Reich would have jumped at the chance to coach here.

Still early to get frustrated by Reich vs McDermott tho I don’t think it looks great so far.

[JohnRobertEichel]

1 hour ago, Kruppstahl said:

What is concerning is that what we saw yesterday--the highs and the lows--is who he has been for his entire football career, and why he was a controversial project type of draft pick.

He is a player of extremes.  He will leave a TD on the field b/c he can't execute a really simple pass to a wide open receiver while under no duress, but then he'll manufacture something special on a busted play.  

As someone said, he will need to iron out the rough spots in his game if he is going to stick in the league.

How long will he get?  That is the question!  EJ Manuel got a whopping 14 games and then his career was over in Buffalo.

Josh will get the rest of this year, and he'll be the starter for Game 1 next year.  At some point next year, he will need to put it together.  He probably won't get beyond next year to do that, and the hook may come before the season ends.  It all depends on how he performs.

 

 

 

Manuel's circumstances were different. He was a Whaley/Nix pick, and both Marrone and Ryan didn't care much for him. Allen is coming into a situation where both the GM and HC are fully on board with him. I bet you that Allen will get all of 2019 and 2020 to show that he's a franchise QB. That would be 44 NFL games played for him, barring any injuries. If Allen doesn't take the Bills to the playoffs by that point, all 3 will be gone by 2021 (Allen, McDermott, Beane).

A couple interesting stats: 

1. Allen currently has the 3rd most rushing yards for a QB, behind Newton and Jackson. He easily could be the #1 rushing QB by the end of the season. Regardless of what you think about QB's that run a lot, that is still an impressive stat for a rookie.

2. Allen's QB rating is bottom of the league, but fellow rookies Darnold and Rosen are both right there with him. Mayfield is noticeably higher, but even he is still comfortably within the bottom half of starting QB's. The conclusion I'm drawing from this is not necessarily that Allen is garbage, but rather that it's hard to play QB in the NFL as a rookie. The learning curve is steep, and highly touted rookie QB's often go to teams that are terrible.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

I've been indifferent with some positive vibes with Daboll. I've seen his play calling put the team in position to win and execution simply fail. At some point if you're consistently failing to execute a gameplan than the gameplan isn't right for that squad, but that's hard to judge with such a talentless group.

Really good post. 

I especially like this excerpted bit. Along those lines: The field-angle clip of Daboll collapsing to the ground when Clay failed to haul in that long ball was really something.

25 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The frustrating thing about the coaching situation is that McVay and Kyle Shanahan were hired the same offseason as McDermott and Frank Reich was one of their interviews as well. 

The league is and was rapidly moving towards offensive minded coaches and the Bills hired a DC as HC who famously said “Where we live you have to be able to run the ball” 

Yep.

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Really good post. 

I especially like this excerpted bit. Along those lines: The field-angle clip of Daboll collapsing to the ground when Clay failed to haul in that long ball was really something.

Yep.

He's always been a huge Bills fan, hasn't he? He felt that drop just like we all did

And I give similar kudos to Hoss' post. 

[darksabre]

That throw to Clay sucked. Wobbling like a dead duck. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

That throw to Clay sucked. Wobbling like a dead duck. 

It was an imperfect throw made in connection with a remarkable effort. It was good enough. And it was catchable, which, under the circumstances, was impressive.

[Hoss]

13 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

It was an imperfect throw made in connection with a remarkable effort. It was good enough. And it was catchable, which, under the circumstances, was impressive.

Under the circumstances the throw was pitiful. At the time he actually threw the ball he was under no pressure at all. The effort to get to that point was great, though.

[carpandean]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

The league is and was rapidly moving towards offensive minded coaches and the Bills hired a DC as HC who famously said “Where we live you have to be able to run the ball” 

Well, every few decades, you do have a game like this ...

?

[That Aud Smell]

20 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Under the circumstances the throw was pitiful. At the time he actually threw the ball he was under no pressure at all. The effort to get to that point was great, though.

As if the seconds within which he actually threw the ball could exist in abstracted isolation from the rest of the play that led up to it.

The takery that views Allen as making a really bad (even pitiful!) throw is utterly perplexing to me.

It was a wobbly throw that could have been better. But it was good enough.

You know what wasn't good enough? Clay's footwork. #stumbletrip

[That Aud Smell]

 

[Hoss]

The throw, even if pitiful, was good enough. Because Clay was wide open. Clay did a good job to get wide open. Just like Allen did a good job to get open for the throw. Then they both messed up. Pretty easy concept.

[Randall Flagg]

The real question to be asked is why Clay was  still so deep in the endzone with his QB scrambling back at the 50. That throw probably traveled 50-60 yards. We needed 11 from the LOS. 

Aren't you supposed to come back to the QB if he's running backwards like that?

Edited December 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[That Aud Smell]

53 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The throw, even if pitiful, was good enough. Because Clay was wide open. Clay did a good job to get wide open. Just like Allen did a good job to get open for the throw. Then they both messed up. Pretty easy concept.

 This is ill-wrought and comes off as condescending.

34 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The real question to be asked is why Clay was  still so deep in the endzone with his QB scrambling back at the 50. That throw probably traveled 50-60 yards. We needed 11 from the LOS. 

Aren't you supposed to come back to the QB if he's running backwards like that?

Correct on all counts.

[Tondas]

Hopefully, Clay's drop was this generation's Ronnie Harmon drop in Cleveland.  As I recall, some very good years followed.

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, Tondas said:

Hopefully, Clay's drop was this generation's Ronnie Harmon drop in Cleveland.  As I recall, some very good years followed.

The circumstances couldn’t be any different