Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[Sabre1974]

Its kinda interesting though that you keep blaming Lehner. 

If you look at other goalies like Price, Varlamov, Allen, Bishop and more, they all are worse than Lehner statisticly this season and still their teams is ahead, you still blame Lehner and call him mediocre. Interesting indeed.

 

If we had forwards that could score goals we would be top 10 in the league by now. 

 

Sigh

good post Modo, totally agree

[LTS]

It's easy to blame Lehner when you watch him play more than any other goalie.  It's easy to blame Lehner when you get more upset when his team loses than any other team.  Lots of people like to be completely irrational and blame it on fandom and then want to project their evaluation of a player as if they can be objective.  It's a bit of a reach to be objective when you also get so worked up when your team loses.

 

For goaltenders who have played 20 games or more this season (Even strength numbers)

 

Lehner's SV% is .924 and EV GA is 56

 

Lundqvist is .926 and 64 GA

Bobrovsky is .928  and 59 GA

Quick is .927 and 55 GA

Holtby is .927 and 55 GA

Dubnyk is .923 and 47GA

Crawford is .934 and 45GA

 

All of those goalies are within the top 15 of the league.

 

Looking at the top 16 goalies in the league in terms of EV SV% there are 6 teams who have goaltender in that list that are not in a playoff position.

 

Chicago - 42 points (2 points out)

Minnesota - 43 points (1 point out)

Calgary - 42 points (2 points out)

Vancouver - 37 points (7 points out)

Philadelphia - 40 points (4 points out)

Buffalo - 29 poiints (13 points out)

 

Lehner seems to be performing fairly well with the top goaltenders on the top teams in the league this year.

 

Does he let in a soft goal?  He does.  Lots of goalies do and you don't ever notice it because you don't watch every minute of every other goaltender.  

 

Finally, he's got to get fairly frustrated when the defense in front of him still doesn't clear bodies.  The first Rangers goal should never happen and it's not the goaltender's fault.  The Sabres had all 5 guys in the crease area and still a Ranger gets his stick on the puck.  The only purpose of a defender once the puck is near the goalie is to get the offensive player and his stick nullified and away from the crease so the goaltender can cover the puck.  When there are 9 sticks and 18 feet in the crease area it's pretty difficult to get a big glove down on the ice to cover the puck.

[MODO Hockey]

It's easy to blame Lehner when you watch him play more than any other goalie.  It's easy to blame Lehner when you get more upset when his team loses than any other team.  Lots of people like to be completely irrational and blame it on fandom and then want to project their evaluation of a player as if they can be objective.  It's a bit of a reach to be objective when you also get so worked up when your team loses.

 

For goaltenders who have played 20 games or more this season (Even strength numbers)

 

Lehner's SV% is .924 and EV GA is 56

 

Lundqvist is .926 and 64 GA

Bobrovsky is .928  and 59 GA

Quick is .927 and 55 GA

Holtby is .927 and 55 GA

Dubnyk is .923 and 47GA

Crawford is .934 and 45GA

 

All of those goalies are within the top 15 of the league.

 

Looking at the top 16 goalies in the league in terms of EV SV% there are 6 teams who have goaltender in that list that are not in a playoff position.

 

Chicago - 42 points (2 points out)

Minnesota - 43 points (1 point out)

Calgary - 42 points (2 points out)

Vancouver - 37 points (7 points out)

Philadelphia - 40 points (4 points out)

Buffalo - 29 poiints (13 points out)

 

Lehner seems to be performing fairly well with the top goaltenders on the top teams in the league this year.

 

Does he let in a soft goal?  He does.  Lots of goalies do and you don't ever notice it because you don't watch every minute of every other goaltender.  

 

Finally, he's got to get fairly frustrated when the defense in front of him still doesn't clear bodies.  The first Rangers goal should never happen and it's not the goaltender's fault.  The Sabres had all 5 guys in the crease area and still a Ranger gets his stick on the puck.  The only purpose of a defender once the puck is near the goalie is to get the offensive player and his stick nullified and away from the crease so the goaltender can cover the puck.  When there are 9 sticks and 18 feet in the crease area it's pretty difficult to get a big glove down on the ice to cover the puck.

 

+1

[SwampD]

It's easy to blame Lehner when you watch him play more than any other goalie.  It's easy to blame Lehner when you get more upset when his team loses than any other team.  Lots of people like to be completely irrational and blame it on fandom and then want to project their evaluation of a player as if they can be objective.  It's a bit of a reach to be objective when you also get so worked up when your team loses.

 

For goaltenders who have played 20 games or more this season (Even strength numbers)

 

Lehner's SV% is .924 and EV GA is 56

 

Lundqvist is .926 and 64 GA

Bobrovsky is .928  and 59 GA

Quick is .927 and 55 GA

Holtby is .927 and 55 GA

Dubnyk is .923 and 47GA

Crawford is .934 and 45GA

 

All of those goalies are within the top 15 of the league.

 

Looking at the top 16 goalies in the league in terms of EV SV% there are 6 teams who have goaltender in that list that are not in a playoff position.

 

Chicago - 42 points (2 points out)

Minnesota - 43 points (1 point out)

Calgary - 42 points (2 points out)

Vancouver - 37 points (7 points out)

Philadelphia - 40 points (4 points out)

Buffalo - 29 poiints (13 points out)

 

Lehner seems to be performing fairly well with the top goaltenders on the top teams in the league this year.

 

Does he let in a soft goal?  He does.  Lots of goalies do and you don't ever notice it because you don't watch every minute of every other goaltender.  

 

Finally, he's got to get fairly frustrated when the defense in front of him still doesn't clear bodies.  The first Rangers goal should never happen and it's not the goaltender's fault.  The Sabres had all 5 guys in the crease area and still a Ranger gets his stick on the puck.  The only purpose of a defender once the puck is near the goalie is to get the offensive player and his stick nullified and away from the crease so the goaltender can cover the puck.  When there are 9 sticks and 18 feet in the crease area it's pretty difficult to get a big glove down on the ice to cover the puck.

You could have typed a whole lot less words if you had just said, "I really don't understand goaltending and just love to embrace the mediocre."

[miles]

i swore i would stop commenting on lehner because he is the goalie until he isnt. however, the biggest problem with lehner is that he will give up any shot not directly hit at him where most of the other goalies will not give it up. he relies on his size to block as much of the net as possible, which works most of the time. people say he is giving up the soft goal, which is true, but those soft goals are typically shots from deep over his glove or blocker. he cant catch up to it. he doesnt collect many rebounds which gives a lot of second chance shots. i safely assume most break-aways will be a goal.

 

The scoring is also affected by the lack of quality of the goaltender as well. you may have noticed, the sabres did not have many points by defense and if i remember correctly, no goals by the defense until just recently. they are unable to go deep in the scoring area because they need to be back quickly, i believe because they dont trust that lehner will be able to bail them out. 

 

I am not saying lehner is garbage, he is night and day better than johnson. he has respectable stats, and i think he would be better on a more defensive minded team. 

 

yes, the sabres defense has a lot to be desired, but between that poor goaltending and the poor defense, the sabres are always battling back. 

 

i also noticed the sabres as a whole, often seem to give up when they get behind. i feel they dont have a clear leader on the team that will help motivate them to not give up. 

 

i honestly think if the sabres got a better goaltender and a solid veteran leader defenseman, they would be a much better team. 

Edited January 2, 2018 by fettmanlitenkappa

[MODO Hockey]

i swore i would stop commenting on lehner because he is the goalie until he isnt. however, the biggest problem with lehner is that he will give up any shot not directly hit at him where most of the other goalies will not give it up. he relies on his size to block as much of the net as possible, which works most of the time. people say he is giving up the soft goal, which is true, but those soft goals are typically shots from deep over his glove or blocker. he cant catch up to it. he doesnt collect many rebounds which gives a lot of second chance shots. i safely assume most break-aways will be a goal.

 

The scoring is also affected by the lack of quality of the goaltender as well. you may have noticed, the sabres did not have many points by defense and if i remember correctly, no goals by the defense until just recently. they are unable to go deep in the scoring area because they need to be back quickly, i believe because they dont trust that lehner will be able to bail them out. 

 

I am not saying lehner is garbage, he is night and day better than johnson. he has respectable stats, and i think he would be better on a more defensive minded team. 

 

yes, the sabres defense has a lot to be desired, but between that poor goaltending and the poor defense, the sabres are always battling back. 

 

i also noticed the sabres as a whole, often seem to give up when they get behind. i feel they dont have a clear leader on the team that will help motivate them to not give up. 

 

i honestly think if the sabres got a better goaltender and a solid veteran leader defenseman, they would be a much better team. 

 

And still Sabres has only scored 86 goals this season, pretty much says it all doesnt it. 

Lehner is no superstar that can win tons of games for a pretty much dead team, but he sure as hell would have kept us in the leap for playoffs.

 

I dont like Lehner that much either, but he is not the biggest issue here.

[miles]

And still Sabres has only scored 86 goals this season, pretty much says it all doesnt it. 

Lehner is no superstar that can win tons of games for a pretty much dead team, but he sure as hell would have kept us in the leap for playoffs.

 

I dont like Lehner that much either, but he is not the biggest issue here.

 

lehner is not the only issue. there are so many issues. he is however one of the many issues. i think their biggest issue is a lack of a team leader that will get on them to not give up. too many times they have given up a second goal and they give up. their shoulders hunch down and the slow down on their skating and just look beaten.  they dont have anyone that will step up and be the leader the team needs. 

 

i think they though that would be oreilly, but really he is not. 

Edited January 2, 2018 by fettmanlitenkappa

[nfreeman]

I think you are splitting hairs in the context of this discussion by saying Andersen and Jones were cheaper to acquire. The cost of each was roughly a late first. That is roughly what an emerging goalie typically costs. Dubnyk was a stroke of luck, but you are right, it can happen.

 

Bobrovsky was an exception, but he’s also countered by Varlamov in the other direction.

 

I think your response speaks to my biggest concern - that people are projecting the Sabres lack of team success onto Lehner, the same way they projected Tampa Bays success on to Bishop. Lehner’s numbers are similar to Anderson’s and Bishops. Why are you so sure they are better goalies? What has Bishop done outside a stacked Tampa team? When has Andersen played for a team as bad as the Sabres?

 

Maybe Dubnyk failed in Edmonton and succeeded in Minnesota more because of the team in front of him.

 

Regarding Jones -- I don't think the difference in price is splitting hairs.  The #29 pick a year from now is a significantly lower price than the #21 pick 3 days from now.

 

The broader point is not, respectfully, that I (and others) are unjustly blaming Lehner for the team's record.  I think the Sabres would have 4-5 more wins if they had a top-5 goalie, but it wouldn't be a game-changer.  It's that I think he's pretty much JAG and am deeply repelled at the thought of committing to him as the starter for any significant period of time. 

 

 

 

Separately:  I don't think we can just look at 5x5 SV%.  Special teams are a huge part of the game and I think Lehner is somewhere in the 20s in overall SV%.

[PASabreFan]

LTS, that is some fine cherry-picking.

[Huckleberry]

And still Sabres has only scored 86 goals this season, pretty much says it all doesnt it. 

Lehner is no superstar that can win tons of games for a pretty much dead team, but he sure as hell would have kept us in the leap for playoffs.

 

I dont like Lehner that much either, but he is not the biggest issue here.

 

Lehner has kept us in most of the games, but scoring is indeed our biggest problem.

[LGR4GM]

Lehner has kept us in most of the games, but scoring is indeed our biggest problem.

Agreed. You need to average 3 goals a game to win in the NHL. We had 2 goals yesterday and lost, shocker. 

[PASabreFan]

I think both sides are talking past each other.

 

All of the following can be true: 1. Lehner is pretty good. 2. He keeps the Sabres in many games. 3. The Sabres don't score enough and that's a bigger problem than goaltending. 4. Lehner does not rise to the moment. 5. Lehner is JAG. 6. Lehner is nutty enough to be a liability. 6. Botterill wants a better goalie with a different personality (see Taylor, Tyrod and Buffalo, One).

[Weave]

You could have typed a whole lot less words if you had just said, "I really don't understand goaltending and just love to embrace the mediocre."

This post should not go unappreciated for its humor.

[LTS]

You could have typed a whole lot less words if you had just said, "I really don't understand goaltending and just love to embrace the mediocre."

 

I had a quota. :)

 

LTS, that is some fine cherry-picking.

 

I used even strength because it removes special teams play from the mix and teams score more often on special teams across the board.  Even the Sabres and Blue Jackets (seriously how are THEY still lower than the Sabres) score around 12% of the time.  After that I am not sure what I am cherry picking.  I used the top 16 goalies and compared to the playoff teams.  Lehner's numbers are right there with teams in the playoff mix and he plays for the second worst team in the league.  I was actually surprised Elliott's numbers were as high as they were given my overall impression of him as a goalie and it was surprising to see Crawford's numbers so high on Chicago who sits outside a playoff spot right now.

 

This post should not go unappreciated for its humor.

 

It was rather entertaining. :)

[Huckleberry]

https://thehockeywriters.com/robin-lehner-sabres/

[SwampD]

This post should not go unappreciated for its humor.

:beer:

[North Buffalo]

Agree with the critical flubs... but I see Lehner maturing slowly and goalie take a while. I see Lehner learning to control his size while being pretty agile for a big guy. Though I think the Sabres (Murray) gave up to much for him I dont think you throw out the baby with the bath water. Wait till the Sabres learn to play D in front of him and he is getting better on odd man rushes. Just not as fast as I would like. Keep coaching him up. Kid has talent. Lets see how he is toward end of the season.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Kottbullar

[LGR4GM]

If I didn't believe in Ullmark I would be much more inclined to keep Lehner. The thing is, I have believed in Ullmark for years now and he keeps improving and stepping up. 

[North Buffalo]

If I didn't believe in Ullmark I would be much more inclined to keep Lehner. The thing is, I have believed in Ullmark for years now and he keeps improving and stepping up.

 

And that will be a good debate toward the end of the season. Gonna be interesting to watch. So does Lehner get moved by trade deadline and Ullmark move up to get a feel for the NHL??

[Drunkard]

And that will be a good debate toward the end of the season. Gonna be interesting to watch. So does Lehner get moved by trade deadline and Ullmark move up to get a feel for the NHL??

 

I hope not. I've been an Ullmark fan since his first post draft season, but he needs to stay in Rochester for their playoff run.

[LGR4GM]

I hope not. I've been an Ullmark fan since his first post draft season, but he needs to stay in Rochester for their playoff run.

Correct. 

[erickompositör72]

FYI- scouts don't put nearly as much weight on stats for goaltenders as Lehner supporters do. They look at things like:

 

• Rebound control
• lateral movement
• recovery time
• ability to read a play
• ability to locate the puck

 

These are a few of the most important elements, and these are the traits that separate the average from the good from the elite. On most of these (except perhaps lateral movement), Lehner is below average.

 

His good lateral movement allows him to make some spectacular saves, though, which wins him the favor of those who don't see his other glaring weaknesses.

Edited January 2, 2018 by erickompositör72

[Robviously]

Yeah, I'm guessing if we move Lehner we probably bring in a journeyman goalie to help us close out the season so that Linus can wrap things up in Rochester.

 

Then next season would be Ullmark and an experienced veteran.

[sabresouth]

Lehner makes spectacular saves there's no doubt about it. But he has 6 problems that add up to an average goalie at best.

1: In the back of my mind I'm always wondering when the other team will get that soft goal. I think it also kills momentum for our team when it happens which is quite often

2: When he plays the puck behind the net he shoots it to the opposing team half the time.

3: he has a hard time holding the post.

4: He is prone to way over comit to one side and has a hard time getting back in time. Which allows him to make spectacular saves but if he didn't overcommit it wouldn't have to be a spectacular saves.

5: Rebound control is not very good. Has he ever heard the term "freeze the puck".

6: His breakaway and shootouts are terrible. These 6 things make him nowhere near a playoff calliber goalie IMHO.

Edited January 3, 2018 by spndnchz
Enter key lol

[MODO Hockey]

FYI- scouts don't put nearly as much weight on stats for goaltenders as Lehner supporters do. They look at things like:

 

• Rebound control
• lateral movement
• recovery time
• ability to read a play
• ability to locate the puck

 

These are a few of the most important elements, and these are the traits that separate the average from the good from the elite. On most of these (except perhaps lateral movement), Lehner is below average.

 

His good lateral movement allows him to make some spectacular saves, though, which wins him the favor of those who don't see his other glaring weaknesses.

 

And still we cant score goals.