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Let the Fire Bylsma Watch begin


matter2003

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Having trouble finding any scoring chance data, official or otherwise. I am guessing the problem is that each team has a slightly diferent way of counting them, and then the data becomes proprietary. I've proposed before that we could crowd-source a Sabres game and come up with chances for and against. Might be fun. Overall, though, it seems to be a huge gap in analytics. I may not be a fan of it (analytics), but I'd certainly be interested in how good teams are at getting more chances than their opponents.

Corsica actually has a scoring chance metric. Overall percentage we're pretty good at 53.58%, 7th in the league. But that's due almost entirely to our scoring chance prevention, where we're 3rd at 6.53 per game. Problem is we're only generating 7.54 per game, which is 19th. Before you ask, I'm not sure exactly what they count as a scoring chance (which is why I don't regularly cite the data), but a safe bet are things in the whole slot area.

 

We are shooting a little low as a team, at 5.06% (as opposed to our expected, per Corsica, of 5.97%), but even if we were shooting as expected, it'd still only give us another 6 goals on the season. We simply aren't generating enough chances to score more.

 

Which brings me full circle to Bylsma: he's using the roster incorrectly. As I think we can all agree, we're not a team with a bunch of high end finishers (our only guy with a realistic expectation of hitting 30 is Jack), so we have to manufacture offense through volume and control. Bylsma is doing the exact opposite of that with his passive forecheck, weak puck support, and neutral zone trapping. Sure we're limiting chances against at an elite level, but we're generating chances at a below average level and when combined with our roster, has resulted in a total dearth of offense.

 

Backing away from the stats some, looking at our defense, I think it's pretty clear that Risto, McCabe, and Bogosian (lord save my soul) are better at attacking offensively than they are at defending in their own zone. Yet, Bylsma's system has them spending more time playing to their weaknesses than to their strengths. Every game I see a lot of chances to either lead a rush or pinch, but they just choose to sit back instead. If it was only say Gorges doing it, that's one thing, but they all are. That's coaching.

 

Jack coming back will help, as he can generate on his own outside of the system, and he can finish. But him coming back doesn't fix the underlying systemic problems Bylsma is responsible for. People can point to the injuries all they want, but it was the same last year, and it was the same this year when we were healthy minus Jack. It's how Bylsma wants to play. I've often joked about what Bylsma learned in his year off...well I think he decided that clogging everything up and castrating the generation of chances (by both teams) was the way to go. Though his breakouts and dumping and chasing is basically the same as in Pittsburgh, I think he neutered the forecheck he used there in favor of stifling the competiton (someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I have no memory of Pittsburgh playing a 1-2-2 with any regularity...quite the contrary, I remember them giving up a lot of speed rushes through the neutral zone).

 

Bleh.

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If they get Eichel back and still struggle to score then let the countdown begin.

 

IMO they'll break out of this scoring funk when he returns to the lineup. Sure, he's one guy, but on this team he's so much better than the 3rd center that he really does make that much difference.

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Meanwhile the Leafs are lighting it up. Talent or Babcock? Maybe our talent is one reason Babcock stood us up?

 

I don't think talent has a single, solitary, thing to do with why Babcock chose the Leafs. 

 

Toronto is an abomination defensively and they're not going to win anything until they clean it up, but in the meantime, man are they fun to watch. They're a bad team, but they're the right kind of bad: entertaining.

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Why the ###### aren't the player who take 3-5 years to develop ready by year 2. This is the system, coach and GMTM. they need to start a new tank. :rolleyes:

I think Murray would punch you in the face for this post. He said he had no appetite for a five-year rebuild. He's not sitting around waiting for Pu or whoever to lead the Sabres to glory in 2022.

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I think Murray would punch you in the face for this post. He said he had no appetite for a five-year rebuild. He's not sitting around waiting for Pu or whoever to lead the Sabres to glory in 2022.

He said that. Hence the O'Reilly and Kane trades. Most would argue as to the success of those trades but I commend him none the less.

 

He traded for Kulikov and signed Okposo. Without injury, that should have been enough to get to the next level with the development of the youngish.

 

Unfortunately, Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Ennis, Kulikov, Bogosian have been injured for much of the season. That's 2/3 of your top six and 1/3 of your defensive core not participating. I'll give them a little leeway.

Edited by inkman
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He said that. Hence the O'Reilly and Kane trades. Most would argue as to the success of those trades but I commend him none the less.

 

He traded for Kulikov and signed Okposo. Without injury, that should have been enough to get to the next level with the development of the youngish.

 

Unfortunately, Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Ennis, Kulikov, Bogosian have been injured for much of the season. That's 2/3 of your top six and 1/3 of your defensive core not participating. I'll give them a little leeway.

 

Minor quibble: I don't think anyone's arguing the success of the O'Reilly trade. If they are, they should be banned with all deliberate speed.

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If he does get fired who do The Sabres bring in?

 

Phil's Name has been mentioned here, what about Dave Tippett if the Yotes fire him?

 

Or Kris Knoblauch of the Erie Otters?

Didn't Tippett sign an extension? I doubt that new gm fires him, he seems like a smart kid

 

I want Todd Richards, currently assistant coach for TB. Not sure if we could pry him away. Is bringing Ruff back at all a possibility?

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He said that. Hence the O'Reilly and Kane trades. Most would argue as to the success of those trades but I commend him none the less.

 

He traded for Kulikov and signed Okposo. Without injury, that should have been enough to get to the next level with the development of the youngish.

 

Unfortunately, Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Ennis, Kulikov, Bogosian have been injured for much of the season. That's 2/3 of your top six and 1/3 of your defensive core not participating. I'll give them a little leeway.

 

Ink I have to say I admire your message and it's simple but brutal truth. I don't know why so many are overlooking these mind blowing issues. I'm saying DD gets a pass but there is a reason why we look like we do and it's not just him.

 

 

 

So it's either Bylsma or injuries.

 

It's both,

 

But man we are boring as hell to watch

 

It is both and I agree it's mostly been boring as hell. But I'm going, watching and waiting for the turn to occur.

 

 

Didn't Tippett sign an extension? I doubt that new gm fires him, he seems like a smart kid

 

I want Todd Richards, currently assistant coach for TB. Not sure if we could pry him away. Is bringing Ruff back at all a possibility?

 

I was all in on Luke Richardson at the time. What's he doing now? Not wearing shoes or slipper around the house of course but what else?

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Didn't Tippett sign an extension? I doubt that new gm fires him, he seems like a smart kid

 

I want Todd Richards, currently assistant coach for TB. Not sure if we could pry him away. Is bringing Ruff back at all a possibility?

 

Doubt ruff will become available, unless the Dallas team completely implodes.

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Corsica actually has a scoring chance metric. Overall percentage we're pretty good at 53.58%, 7th in the league. But that's due almost entirely to our scoring chance prevention, where we're 3rd at 6.53 per game. Problem is we're only generating 7.54 per game, which is 19th. Before you ask, I'm not sure exactly what they count as a scoring chance (which is why I don't regularly cite the data), but a safe bet are things in the whole slot area.

 

We are shooting a little low as a team, at 5.06% (as opposed to our expected, per Corsica, of 5.97%), but even if we were shooting as expected, it'd still only give us another 6 goals on the season. We simply aren't generating enough chances to score more.

 

Which brings me full circle to Bylsma: he's using the roster incorrectly. As I think we can all agree, we're not a team with a bunch of high end finishers (our only guy with a realistic expectation of hitting 30 is Jack), so we have to manufacture offense through volume and control. Bylsma is doing the exact opposite of that with his passive forecheck, weak puck support, and neutral zone trapping. Sure we're limiting chances against at an elite level, but we're generating chances at a below average level and when combined with our roster, has resulted in a total dearth of offense.

 

Backing away from the stats some, looking at our defense, I think it's pretty clear that Risto, McCabe, and Bogosian (lord save my soul) are better at attacking offensively than they are at defending in their own zone. Yet, Bylsma's system has them spending more time playing to their weaknesses than to their strengths. Every game I see a lot of chances to either lead a rush or pinch, but they just choose to sit back instead. If it was only say Gorges doing it, that's one thing, but they all are. That's coaching.

 

Jack coming back will help, as he can generate on his own outside of the system, and he can finish. But him coming back doesn't fix the underlying systemic problems Bylsma is responsible for. People can point to the injuries all they want, but it was the same last year, and it was the same this year when we were healthy minus Jack. It's how Bylsma wants to play. I've often joked about what Bylsma learned in his year off...well I think he decided that clogging everything up and castrating the generation of chances (by both teams) was the way to go. Though his breakouts and dumping and chasing is basically the same as in Pittsburgh, I think he neutered the forecheck he used there in favor of stifling the competiton (someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I have no memory of Pittsburgh playing a 1-2-2 with any regularity...quite the contrary, I remember them giving up a lot of speed rushes through the neutral zone).

 

Bleh.

 

this is the analysis I have been looking for, thanks

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Didn't Tippett sign an extension? I doubt that new gm fires him, he seems like a smart kid

 

I want Todd Richards, currently assistant coach for TB. Not sure if we could pry him away. Is bringing Ruff back at all a possibility?

I think with Pegula at the helm, anything is possible, just not Darren. (I slay me.)

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