Weave Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I would have had higher expectations for the 14th pick in the draft. You shouldn't. At 14 you are trying to get guys who make the roster. It's a coin flip. I can't believe he is only 22. I guess we had to expect a down year after his whirlwind season last year, what with the ASG and all. I think Zemgus will be fine once he matures a little more and figures out how to incorporate his high motor into system play. Again, I can't believe he is only 22 We keep getting told that power forwards take longer to develop, and we keep getting impatient with them (myself included). Zemgus has some development left in him methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 You shouldn't. At 14 you are trying to get guys who make the roster. It's a coin flip. Looking back at #14 overall picks, and, yeah: The hit rate is about 50%. We keep getting told that power forwards take longer to develop, and we keep getting impatient with them (myself included). Zemgus has some development left in him methinks. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thwomp! Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 This is where advanced stats and production in the box score interact and conflict at times for me. I and many others love zemgus, and the advanced stats can point to all these good and promising things, but what counts in wins, losses, getting to the playoffs, etc. is production. Goals, assists, even plus/minus. Zemgus is woefully short in those categories this year. I have the same or similar argument with Kane much of the time, especially earlier in the year. Yes the advanced stats can be great and promising, but where's the production? Where's the goals and assists that actually lead to winning games? The advanced stats can be a sign of good things to come, but what if those good things never come and the production never meets the promise, salary, needs of the team, and/or the eyeball test? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 The advanced stats can be a sign of good things to come, but what if those good things never come Over time, they will. They MUST! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I would have had higher expectations for the 14th pick in the draft.As others have noted, that's setting yourself up for disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blugold43 Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I don't think it's much of a stretch to suggest that most of us were expecting Zemgus to have a better season than he's had, and I don't think it's a stretch at all to say we collectively expected him to score more than 5 goals. The first part of this post I hope to explain the output, then the second part I'll have some numbers on his impact outside of goal scoring. The stats: Shooting Percentage As a rookie he shot 7%, as a sophomore he shot 13%, and this year he's at 5.3%. His career average is 8.642. Time on Ice Last season he averaged 19:05 per game, this season he's down 4 full minutes to 15:05 per game. So, what minutes did he lose? He's down from 1:58 of PP time per game to 45 seconds per game, so about a 62% reduction in PP time. His ES time is down 1:41 per game. So of his lost ice time, nearly all of it has come in situations that he would be expected to be able to produce offense. Shot Generation Zemgus' shot generation has remained amazingly consistent throughout his young career. His shots per minute of ice time, starting with his rookie season: 2013: .11 2014: .104 2015: .105 Corsi% relative to team, forwards >300 ES minutes 2013: 2.1, 3rd on team trailing Larsson and...D'Agostini 2014: -3.6, 10th on team ahead of only Deslauriers and Kaleta --all hail Teds Nolans! 2015: 2.1, 4th on team behind Reinhart, Kane, and....Moulson (don't read too much into this one, Moulson's usage is drastically different than the others) High Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ES ice time, team rank | HDSCF%, team rank 2013: 11.81, 3rd | 49%, 2nd 2014: 10.61, 4th | 40%, 8th 2015: 9.45, 8th | 46.42%, 11th Zone Starts Outside of his misguided stint as 3rd line center, he's actually starting a bit more frequently in the offensive zone relative to teammates than in years past, as he's been sheltered on Jack's wing rather than the all-situations center of last year. The difference is really quite small though, ~2 percentage points different. It's also worth noting the entire team is starting more in the offensive zone, because ya know, not tanking. Teammates: 4 most common forwards at even strength, with minutes together 2013: Flynn (369), Ennis (317), Moulson (221), Hodgson (162) 2014: Ennis (548), Moulson (410), Stewart (220), Gionta (154) 2015: Eichel (228), Gionta (215), Moulson (195), Larsson (186) My Conclusion Some bad puck luck, an uncertain role (huge spread of teammates, shutdown role to top-6 winger to playing with AHL call-ups during injury times), and far lower offensive opportunity have combined to torpedo his offensive output, but his underlying numbers are still pretty good. His shot generation is the same as ever, and he's still one of our top possession players. Without touching anything else, his shooting percentage being his career average and his ES & PP ice time being that of last season, he'd have 11 goals in 63 games. Last year he had 15 goals in 61 games. That's not far off, and if his SH% was the same as last year, he'd have 16 goals this season. While he's generating about 1 less high danger chance every ~4 games, he's also on the ice for far fewer against--his overall play on this metric is arguably better than last season. I think most of the decline in his offensive output can be attributed to a change in role, with a simply more talented roster pushing him down the lineup, and a sprinkling of blame to Bylsma for thinking he was Jordan Staal at the start of the season. His underlying numbers being the same (or in some cases better) points mostly to changing circumstances as the culprit for his "decline." In fact, I don't think he's declined at all. Perhaps a better way of looking at it is he has stagnated to some degree, but the notion that he has regressed or fallen off a cliff is not empirically supported, in my view. What about non-scoring aspects of hockey? AKA does he make those he plays with better? In short, yes. He makes every single teammate he plays with better in goal scoring, goal prevention, and possession. When apart, he also suffers less of a dropoff in these categories than his linemate. Hell, just look at how good he is with Eichel, and compare their stats together to the Kane-Eichel-Reinhart line everybody loved. Zemgus himself may never be an offensive powerhouse, but he looks to be a pretty valuable complementary piece. This post is already long so rather than typing more, I'll post a pdf of my Excel spreadsheet and the with or without you (WOWY) stats for his 4 most common linemates. Semi-small sample warning applies because his most common linemates have spent more time with other players, but it's all we have to work with. All numbers at even strength (I don't have score-adjusted because Puckalytics does not yet have it implemented, and going to close-situation would cut the sample down even further. I felt including all data was for the best). Book1.pdf His reaction to Neil's multiple cheapshots on Eichel was positively Gaustadesque. Love the effort you made to prove he's a quality player, but to me he's tradebait. I hope Murray uses this post to convince someone he's worth a top-3 defenseman. I'll be disappointed if he's still on the roster next fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musichunch Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 His reaction to Neil's multiple cheapshots on Eichel was positively Gaustadesque. Love the effort you made to prove he's a quality player, but to me he's tradebait. I hope Murray uses this post to convince someone he's worth a top-3 defenseman. I'll be disappointed if he's still on the roster next fall. I missed that. I did notice Girgs standing up for Risto during the same game. Girgs is no chump, but I'd like to rewatch what happened during the Neil plays. I would be very disappointed in him to let Neil get away with cheapshots on his watch and with his knowledge. My opinion is somewhere between Blue's and Eastside's. I see the little things, but where is the production? He used to have it, but where is it now? My instinct is to blame Bylsma's system, but we also need to consider Girgs went from one of the top scoring options to #5-#6. He's being told to play a disciplined, physical, forechecking, get to the front of the net, create for your linemates type-game. He's being used like a rich man's Foligno. I don't think he is close to his potential. He's a 25-30 goal guy and potential standout playoff performer IMO. The bright side is Bylsma is teaching him to be disiplined and efficient. The worry is that he is neutering him permanently. To use a corny term, maybe some birds are not meant to be caged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 So, it seems the high-danger scoring chance/shot area is something created/defined by war-on-ice.com? Behold! A high-danger scoring chance, then, must be a shot from the blue area? All attempts at clarity seem incomplete, LIKE THIS. You advanced fancy stats folks would have made killer AD&D players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blugold43 Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I missed that. I did notice Girgs standing up for Risto during the same game. Girgs is no chump, but I'd like to rewatch what happened during the Neil plays. I would be very disappointed in him to let Neil get away with cheapshots on his watch and with his knowledge. My opinion is somewhere between Blue's and Eastside's. I see the little things, but where is the production? He used to have it, but where is it now? My instinct is to blame Bylsma's system, but we also need to consider Girgs went from one of the top scoring options to #5-#6. He's being told to play a disciplined, physical, forechecking, get to the front of the net, create for your linemates type-game. He's being used like a rich man's Foligno. I don't think he is close to his potential. He's a 25-30 goal guy and potential standout playoff performer IMO. The bright side is Bylsma is teaching him to be disiplined and efficient. The worry is that he is neutering him permanently. To use a corny term, maybe some birds are not meant to be caged. I'm suspicious that Bylsma is behind his drop in production also...all the more reason to move him for a defenseman. Or move Bylsma... But I guess that's not what this thread's about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I missed that. I did notice Girgs standing up for Risto during the same game. Girgs is no chump, but I'd like to rewatch what happened during the Neil plays. I would be very disappointed in him to let Neil get away with cheapshots on his watch and with his knowledge. My opinion is somewhere between Blue's and Eastside's. I see the little things, but where is the production? He used to have it, but where is it now? My instinct is to blame Bylsma's system, but we also need to consider Girgs went from one of the top scoring options to #5-#6. He's being told to play a disciplined, physical, forechecking, get to the front of the net, create for your linemates type-game. He's being used like a rich man's Foligno. I don't think he is close to his potential. He's a 25-30 goal guy and potential standout playoff performer IMO. The bright side is Bylsma is teaching him to be disiplined and efficient. The worry is that he is neutering him permanently. To use a corny term, maybe some birds are not meant to be caged. To be fair, adding Kane, ROR, Eichel, Reinhart this season pretty much ensured the Top Scorer from last year would be #5-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 (edited) So, is the low slot hockey's taint, then? Edited March 26, 2016 by SwampD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 This is where advanced stats and production in the box score interact and conflict at times for me. I and many others love zemgus, and the advanced stats can point to all these good and promising things, but what counts in wins, losses, getting to the playoffs, etc. is production. Goals, assists, even plus/minus. Zemgus is woefully short in those categories this year. I have the same or similar argument with Kane much of the time, especially earlier in the year. Yes the advanced stats can be great and promising, but where's the production? Where's the goals and assists that actually lead to winning games? The advanced stats can be a sign of good things to come, but what if those good things never come and the production never meets the promise, salary, needs of the team, and/or the eyeball test? This argument is well noted, when it comes to Girgensons. In regards to Kane, though, you can find the production right where you'd wanna find it, in the goal column. He's got 20. Back to Girgs, keeping in mind his young age and that it sometimes, as previously noted, takes power forwards a little longer to develop, I am still holding out hope for him. I'd like to see a significant increase in production next season, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 The more I think about it, the more I really like the McGinn comparison. Zemgus will probably give you slightly worse production, just as much effort, better defense, and better possession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tondas Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 So, is the low slot hockey's taint, then? It takes a sick sense of humor to even think that up. Thank god for you, sir. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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