The Ryan O'Reilly super thread 2015!!!

[thewookie1]

I could see Buffalo using the threat of an offer sheet to get another player cheaper. For instance if Murray were high on Sharp and they wanted the 21st+ for him, he could just threaten to offer sheet Saad at 5.4m

[K-9]

Guessing this means Kane and Toews.  From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines.  Can anyone verify that?

Coach Q had them together in game 7 and what a great strategy it was, too. Toews, Kane, and Saad took the opening faceoff vs. the Kessler line and stayed on the ice for all of 4 seconds before Q pulled them off and waited to match them up against Getzlaf's line. The Ducks had no answer as Getzlaf had his worst game of the series being forced to play defense and he just couldn't. 

 

But yeah, Kane and Toews usually don't play on the same line, but Q puts them together when he targets something specific in the to other team. Can't wait to see what he does against Tampa. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Hoss]

I really don't think Chicago is in that much trouble with the cap. They can move Bickell pretty easily. Sharp might be the next in line. He'd be a big loss and they'd need him to waive a NMC, but I think Saad is a big reason they can move on. Teravainen could really take on a big role, too.

 

I think if they're going to move any player ahead of a bigger contract it'll be Andrew Shaw who is an RFA next offseason. Saad replaces Sharp/Hossa as they age/get moved.

 

Long-term they focus on keeping Toews, Kane, Saad, Keith and Hjalmarsson mainly. They have really made an effort to lock up good young talent in the last year. Them being in on so many undrafted free agents seems to show that they are prepared to fill the ranks with cheaper young talent while the older guys move on.

[Grinder]

Saad-Toews-Hossa and Bickell-Richards-Kane were the lines until games 6 and 7, when Kane and Toss a flipped. Saad is an excellent two way complimentary player. One of the best in the league I'd say. Will be extremely difficult and expensive for any team to pull him out of Chicago.

[GoPre]

Supposedly Sakic wants ROR re-signed before the season starts. Doesn't want a headache. And ROR feels the same way. During the season, he claims to have his mind only on hockey. This is from an article written in April. 

 

“After the year is over, we will be in contact with his people,” Sakic said, “and we are going to try to re-sign Ryan. We like Ryan a lot. We feel he’s valuable and he’s one of our core guys. … He doesn’t need it, we don’t need it, no one needs the distractions of going through the season (as a possible unrestricted free agent in July 2016), so we’re going to try to get it done.”

Would O’Reilly be on the market if he isn’t re-signed to an extension? “I’m not going to put a deadline on it,” Sakic said, “but I want him signed before next season starts, let’s put it that way.”

In my opinion, this means if an agreement is not reached this summer Sakic will try to trade him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a player's value "drop" as his contract nears expiration? Teams know he'll be on the market as UFA very soon. What I mean by this is if an agreement has not been been reached and the trade deadline is near, wouldn't Sakic be asking for less to get rid of him? Something is better than nothing. Now in ROR's case, that something will still be costly, but one can only wonder how much his value has dropped. Plenty of teams would take a shot at the guy if he becomes a UFA. Pegula doesn't have a problem w/ money. If Murray wants him bad enough, Terry will pay. Now, I'm sure a line would be drawn somewhere. Buffalo dropped out of the Richardson bidding war. I know the Rangers had rights to the guy, but 12 million a year was insane. 

[dEnnis the Menace]

What if he traded for Saad?  I mean the Hawks are going to be cap screwed this upcoming year, what if Murray was like hey I have this prospect and the 21st (Or whatever you think Saad is worth) wanna make a deal because you have cap issues.  

 

Don't know if it'll be Saad, or another equivalent player somewhere else in the league, but this is something I anticipate this offseason.

[WildCard]

TrueBlue, what's your opinion on Saad? 

 

Gonna do a Toffoli one tonight if I don't go out with some buddies. By Murray's remarks on RFA's, seems like he wants to tender one where a GM has to make a hard cap decision, Toffoli and Saad fit the bill for that, and we all know of Murray's man crush on Toffoli

[Hoss]

McKenzie was asked if O'Reilly will be traded and he said he thinks he will be dealt for defense, but he pointed out that's not based on anything he's been told... Just opinion.

Doesn't think Colorado will want to pay market value for him.

[TrueBlueGED]

TrueBlue, what's your opinion on Saad?

 

Gonna do a Toffoli one tonight if I don't go out with some buddies. By Murray's remarks on RFA's, seems like he wants to tender one where a GM has to make a hard cap decision, Toffoli and Saad fit the bill for that, and we all know of Murray's man crush on Toffoli

I want to respond more fully to your post but I've been super busy the past few days and haven't been able to assemble the response I feel you deserve. Short version: I really like Saad and would love to have him, just not sure I want to part with next year's #1 to give it a chance. What puts me firmly in the O'Reilly camp is his ability to player center and wing. I think they're pretty close otherwise though.

[TrueBlueGED]

 

Since we've all heard the O'Reilly case, I'll introduce the Saad one instead. It's already going to be a long post so I don't want to bog it down too much reviewing what's already been stated. 

 

First off, Saad is a winner, which is an important aspect. He's been on a Cup winning team, and in the playoffs every year since he's been in the league. His first two trips, including the second one where he won the Cup, weren't glamorous in any sense of the word, but his second two showings have highlighted him as a rising star who likes the limelight. He's been double-shifted these last few games, big games, for Chicago and playing the 3rd most average TOI for the Hawks on a veteran squad (behind Kane and Toews); that means he's playing more often and in bigger scenarios than Hossa, Sharp, Richards, etc. Coach Q has shown that if you screw up, he will bench you the entire period (shout out to Bickel). Double shifting a 22 year old on a team of vets in Game 7 from a two time Stanely Cup winning coach is incredible praise.

 

-2014 Playoffs: 6-10-16 in 19gp, avg. toi (17:31)

-2015 Playoffs: 6-2-8 17gp, avg. toi (20.40)

 

Secondly, his offensive prowess/upside is much higher than O'Reilly's, at 2 years younger no less. Every year he's been in the league and played a full season, his s% has been higher than 10%, and is an average of 11.2%. Conversely, O'Reilly's average is 10.2%, was 9.9% this most recent season, and has never eclipsed Saad's shot total of 203 shots in a season. Granted O'Reilly did have a shot total of 201 shots in his best season stats wise, yielding a s% of 13.9% (which he's never before or sense gotten close to) and a 28 goal season. It's not the strongest argument for Saad, but it demonstrates his consistency. 

 

Saad and O'Reilly each have one 20 goal season, O'Reilly's coming on what is statistically an anomaly for him, Saad's is not. It's also worth noting that at the beginning of last year, Saad was stuck on the 3rd line without Kane/Toews, the lack of talent situation cannot also be said for O'reilly. 

 

For all that is said about O'Reilly's defensive prowess, he is an astounding -13 in his career, with only one season being a positive: his rookie campaign at +4. Now, I know plus/minus isn't the end all be all of stats, but for comparison, Saad is a +44 career, and in his first full rookie season he was a +20 with the same average toi as O'Reilly rookie campaign. For fancy stats, try and guess which player has which numbers. (note: for corsi/60, I had to use the latest season as one player didn't have career totals available) 

 

Corsi-For % EV: 56%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): 9.3

Fenwick-For % EV: 55.8%

 

Corsi-For % EV: 49.8%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -6.7

Fenwick-For % EV: 49.9%

 

 

Clearly I'm leading you on, so it shouldn't take too much thought to know the answer is Saad and O'Reilly respectively. See, now I'm confused here. Everything I've heard says O'Reilly is a very solid defensive forward, yet every stat I have proves otherwise. Here's a teammates of O'Reilly's same stats.

 

Corsi-For % EV: 51.3%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -3.4

Fenwick-For % EV: 51.5%

 

That would be Landeskog's stats by the way. O'Reilly isn't even the best statistical player on his team, yet we want to pay him like one of the league's best, not too mention trade for him.

 

Also, O'Reilly ranks 202nd in Corsi-For% EV from 2013-2015,  when he had the most talented rosters he's had yet. Wanna know who floats there with him? Our boy Thomas Vanek at 208 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 204. Two players you would hardly laud for their defensive play. Saad, OTOH, ranks 22nd in that span.

 

Now, you could say "But that's because of Chicago." Well, in that span of 2013-2015, O'Reilly ranked 4th on his own team in forwards, behind MacKinnon, Iginla, and Landeskog, and ahead of Duchene and others. Saad, OTOH, ranked 5th on his, behind Bickell, Hossa, Sharp, and Toews, and ahead of Kane, Shaw, and Kruger. Make of that what you will.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201315&sit=5v5&type=corsi&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=1500&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

 

 

Ultimately, I think Saad has a much higher ceiling, is consistent and can maintain his pace as his stats demonstrate, is a proven winner that loves the spot light, and is a benefit to his team in every phase of the game. I think he will come cheaper than O'Reilly seeing as we won't have to trade for him, and although is less likely to be acquired, provides the added benefit of a team strapped with Cap trouble. If we were to spend $8 mil/year on a RFA, I would much rather it be Saad or even Toffoli than O'Reilly

 

 

As others have said, really good post, and I appreciate you doing it. But I'm totally going to challenge some of the stuff in here :)

 

Old school hockey fans will probably never accept this, but +/- is simply a bad stat and shouldn't be used. I honestly think it's basically useless for everything, and simply doesn't measure defensive capability. Look no further than Patrice Bergeron only being a +2 this year. Does anybody out there think he forgot how to play defense? Alex Ovechkin regularly posts high positive +/- numbers, but even if he improved a little defensively this season, nobody is confusing him for a Selke winner. One way to at least start to look at a player's defensive value is to see how opponents do against him versus against others. Super small sample size warning here, and I'm simply eye-balling this, but O'Reilly's opponents' CF% regularly is lower against him than against everyone else they play. To illustrate, I'll just take Freeman's current mancrush, Tarasenko, who was 49.1% against O'Reilly but 55% against everyone else. I think his defensive reputation is legit (Saad's numbers are also very impressive, and their head-to-head numbers are literally a wash). Play around yourself here: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1180&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

 

I think the fatal flaw in your analysis is that you're not doing enough to take team context into account when looking at individual player performance. There's a few ways to go about doing this. For one, I think we can look at team-level performance--the primary reason Saad's Corsi is so much better than O'Reilly's is because the Hawks are much better than the Avs, and I'm fairly certain Patrick Roy is as tactically sound as Ted Nolan. This year, Chicago was the league's 3rd best possession team with a score-adjusted Corsi of 53.5%. Colorado, meanwhile, was a Buffalo-esque 29th in the league at 42.7%. What this means is basically every player on Chicago is going to have a better CF% than any player on Colorado, including undisputed studs like Landeskog and Duchene. 

 

One way we can try to work around this is to look at relative Corsi numbers. Now we have to be careful because relative numbers are not directly comparable across teams, but it does help us see if a player is being dragged down (or propped up) by circumstances. Saad's score-adjusted relative CF% (hereafter RelCF%) is .24, right in the middle of Chicago's forward group. So basically he's not driving play himself, but he's not a total passenger to a superior team either--he's earned his spot on the top line. O'Reilly, on the other hand, has a RelCF% of 4.1, 3rd among the team's forwards behind only MacKinnon and Landeskog. Put differently, O'Reilly is a really good possession player on an awful team, which is dragging down his numbers. 

 

Another way we can try to look at team effects is to look more closely at the performance of the players that somebody plays with, and how those linemates perform when separated. This can come with a sample size warning as teams tend to keep their best players together more often than not, but it's still useful. Saad spent 55.7% of EV time with Hossa and 54.6% with Toews. That line's CF% while together is 57.7%...but how about apart? Saad without those two is at 50%, while Hossa is at 53.8% and Toews at 54.6%. So each player on that line is better off together than apart, but the dropoff for Saad is over than 2x than for the others. It's also worth noting that the line together gets 55% offensive zone starts, while when apart Saad's jumps to 59.6%, so he's getting a slightly better offensive opportunity when apart from the others, but his numbers drop off (the same pattern emerges for Toews). He's a real contributor on the line, but he's pretty clearly 3rd banana.

 

So how does that look for O'Reilly? Pretty similar. O'Reilly is almost always with Landeskog--67.9% of the time, but his 3rd linemate is not nearly as consistent: Tanguay 35.7% of the time and MacKinnon 30.8% of the time. There's no way I'm ambitious enough to check the timeline, but my guess is this is due to MacKinnon's injury. So I'm going to run the analysis one time with a line of Landeskog-O'Reilly-Tanguay and once for Landeskog-MacKinnon-O'Reilly. My assumption going in is that O'Reilly is going to look much better relative to Tanguay than compared with MacKinnon :lol:

 

Landeskog-MacKinnon-O'Reilly

CF% together: 50.4% (congrats to them on being good enough to overcome Roy)

OZ% together: 45.3%

O'Reilly apart: 44.6% Corsi and 42.8% OZ

Landeskog apart: 47.3% Corsi and 41.6% OZ

MacKinnon apart: 48.1% Corsi and 47.6% OZ

 

Landeskog-O'Reilly-Tanguay

CF% together: 48.5%

OZ% together: 42.1%

O'Reilly apart: 45.9% Corsi and 43.9% OZ

Landeskog apart: 48.2% Corsi and 43% OZ

Tanguay apart: 41.2% Corsi and 46.8% OZ

 

What does this tell us? Well the easy way of putting it is that MacKinnon > Landeskog > O'Reilly >>>>> Tanguay. But we probably knew that already :p

More seriously, the pattern we see with O'Reilly is pretty close to that of Saad--a player who is contributing to making the top line better, but is pretty clearly the 3rd best player on that line. The only caveat I'd add here is that Saad's dropoff without Toews and Hossa is larger than O'Reilly's without Landeskog and MacKinnon, and that while apart Saad gets more favorable offensive starts and O'Reilly gets worse. We're not talking massive differences here, but they do exist. 

 

More on team context, hooray! We can also look at the quality of competition each player faces and zone starts relative to the team. One metric that has emerged for looking at quality of competition is simple: time on ice percentage. The theory is that the better players get more ice time. You'll of course have some exceptions, but this has been found to be very consistent and have good validity. It's better than using Corsi-based quality of competition because it essentially circumvents team effects, so cross-team comparisons are cleaner. Saad faces the third toughest competition on Chicago, with opponents averaging 17.68% per game and O'Reilly faces the toughest on Colorado at 17.95%. This is a really small difference, and I don't put much if any stock into it individually, but it does continue the trend of O'Reilly being given marginally more difficult ice time. 

 

One last thing I'll look at are scoring rates at even strength. This is the one area where Saad is pretty clearly ahead of O'Reilly. Saad's points per 60 minutes of ice time (P/60) is 2.08 and O'Reilly's is 1.91. Personally, I attribute almost all of this to player usage, with O'Reilly starting in the offensive zone only 44.5% of the time and Saad starting there 57.7% of the time. We could probably argue over how much this ultimately means for the scoring rates, but I think we can agree that the difference in zone starts between the two means something. 

 

Overall I think the players are pretty close, but I think the whole story leans in favor of O'Reilly. He gets a little tougher minutes and suffers a little less of a dropoff when he's separated from his stud linemates. He also has to deal with Patrick Roy's coaching, as opposed to getting the benefit of Quenneville's. And, of course, the real big thing: he's a natural center who plays wing, whereas Saad is strictly a winger. I put a lot of weight on position versatility (look at the luxury Tampa has of temporarily putting Stamkos on the wing to strengthen the top-6), and given the stats, I'd rather have O'Reilly. That is not meant to disparage Saad at all--he's great, and there's a compelling argument for him as well (younger so more growth potential, faster skater), and I'd love to have him on the Sabres. But if I can only have one, I'm going O'Reilly because he's currently better and brings position versatility...but you're certainly not crazy for wanting Saad.

[WildCard]

Very, very awesome post TrueBlue. Well done  :beer:

 

Let me look it over some more, and look up some Toffoli stuff to see a comparison before I give it a proper response. One question, how do you know the percentage of time a player plays on a certain line? I was looking everywhere for that when I did Saad, is it all (every stat you have) from that site you linked?

Edited June 13, 2015 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

Very, very awesome post TrueBlue. Well done  :beer:

 

Let me look it over some more, and look up some Toffoli stuff to see a comparison before I give it a proper response. One question, how do you know the percentage of time a player plays on a certain line? I was looking everywhere for that when I did Saad, is it all (every stat you have) from that site you linked?

 

I knew I forgot to include something. Time on ice together can be found from the link I provided, and in a bit cleaner of a presentation here: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?c=0+1+3+5+8+9+11+13+29+31+33&ds=8&f5=

Personally I use the above link to get a general idea then go to the hockeyanalysis link for specifics

 

I got the overall line data from the superWOWY tool over at puckalytics, located here: http://www.puckalytics.com/superwowy.html

 

Anything else I grabbed from here: http://war-on-ice.com/

[WildCard]

I don't feel like re-reading this thread TrueBlue, so I'm sorry if you've already answered these questions, but 

 

1) Do you think Zemgus can become a better, if not at least equal, O'Reilly?

 

2) Which is more rare, a scorer or a two-way player?

 

3) Do you think the Sabres need scoring or two-way players more?

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't feel like re-reading this thread TrueBlue, so I'm sorry if you've already answered these questions, but 

 

1) Do you think Zemgus can become a better, if not at least equal, O'Reilly?

 

2) Which is more rare, a scorer or a two-way player?

 

3) Do you think the Sabres need scoring or two-way players more?

 

1) I think Zemgus' ceiling is O'Reilly. I just don't know if he has the playmaking to reliably hit mid-50s points.

 

2) I don't have the faintest idea. My gut tells me scorers are more rare, but I've got nothing to back that up.

 

3) They just finished with under 60 points two years in a row, they need both :p

Really though, I don't want to sound wishy-washy, but I really do think both are needed in equal measure. I suppose if really pressed I'd say two-way players because my end-game hope is that Eichel and Reinhart are good enough in the middle to manufacture more offense than the wingers' pure talent indicates should be there.

[LastPommerFan]

Thanks Blue. Really Good Stuff. 

 

The Quality of Analysis on this board has taken a great leap forward in the past 6 weeks (Starting with Ghost's Exposition on DDB, I think) 

 

It's good to have Hockey again.

[nfreeman]

TBPhD -- that is MVP-level posting right there.

 

But I still want Tarasenko. (But would love to see a breakdown on him if you're so inclined.)

[TrueBlueGED]

TBPhD -- that is MVP-level posting right there.

 

But I still want Tarasenko. (But would love to see a breakdown on him if you're so inclined.)

I'll try to put together an abbreviated version for him during an intermission tonight. I expect to confirm what we think we know about his offensive prowess, but a small part of me hopes to find contradictory evidence to test the strength of your mancrush :p

[WildCard]

1) I think Zemgus' ceiling is O'Reilly. I just don't know if he has the playmaking to reliably hit mid-50s points.

 

2) I don't have the faintest idea. My gut tells me scorers are more rare, but I've got nothing to back that up.

 

3) They just finished with under 60 points two years in a row, they need both :P

Really though, I don't want to sound wishy-washy, but I really do think both are needed in equal measure. I suppose if really pressed I'd say two-way players because my end-game hope is that Eichel and Reinhart are good enough in the middle to manufacture more offense than the wingers' pure talent indicates should be there.

1) I think he'll thrive on the wing, playing in front of the net and along the boards with a center to feed him

 

2) I would say scorers. I think players like O'Reilly can be found, and maybe in our system, for a lesser price tag. 

 

3) I really, really do think a two-way forward is essential on a Cup winning team, I just think we have them for cheaper already in the system, albeit maybe not as good as O'Reill. You bring up a good point about Eichel and Reinhart feeding the wings though

[Hoss]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-maple-leafs-to-go-to-draft-with-no-gm/

 

 

The Avs have made it known that O'Reilly is available.

[TrueBlueGED]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-maple-leafs-to-go-to-draft-with-no-gm/

 

 

The Avs have made it known that O'Reilly is available.

And now my screen door is in worse shape than D4rk's.

[BetterDays06]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-maple-leafs-to-go-to-draft-with-no-gm/

 

 

The Avs have made it known that O'Reilly is available.

What would it take? Friedman said "You would have to think they will be looking for D". 

[Hoss]

What would it take? Friedman said "You would have to think they will be looking for D". 

Judging by their screen doors I guess TrueBlue and D4rk have something to offer in that department...

 

 

 

But otherwise I think the first two names they ask for are Bogosian and Ristolainen. I can't see that happening and would be highly disappointed if it did. I don't think it will.

Outside of them we've got Zadorov, Gorges, Pysyk, McCabe and Weber to offer in a deal. Zadorov is the popular name, and I would expect that he would be a key piece to the deal if Colorado believes that he can play in the NHL right now (which could be why Murray/Bylsma put out to the media that they believe he can). The most popular offer is some variation of Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21 and maybe another piece. I could see Colorado pushing for something like Zadorov and one of the other dmen I just mentioned excluding Bogo/Risto, 21 and a prospect (Grigorenko, Larsson, Compher, Hurley).

 

If the deal is Zadorov, Weber/Gorges, Grigorenko and 21 then I think it's a definite yes. If Weber/Gorges has to be one of Pysyk/McCabe then I don't give them the extra prospect and might want a lesser defensive prospect coming back our way.

[Ross Rhea]

Judging by their screen doors I guess TrueBlue and D4rk have something to offer in that department...

 

 

 

But otherwise I think the first two names they ask for are Bogosian and Ristolainen. I can't see that happening and would be highly disappointed if it did. I don't think it will.

Outside of them we've got Zadorov, Gorges, Pysyk, McCabe and Weber to offer in a deal. Zadorov is the popular name, and I would expect that he would be a key piece to the deal if Colorado believes that he can play in the NHL right now (which could be why Murray/Bylsma put out to the media that they believe he can). The most popular offer is some variation of Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21 and maybe another piece. I could see Colorado pushing for something like Zadorov and one of the other dmen I just mentioned excluding Bogo/Risto, 21 and a prospect (Grigorenko, Larsson, Compher, Hurley).

 

If the deal is Zadorov, Weber/Gorges, Grigorenko and 21 then I think it's a definite yes. If Weber/Gorges has to be one of Pysyk/McCabe then I don't give them the extra prospect and might want a lesser defensive prospect coming back our way.

That's way too much to give up. IMO

[IKnowPhysics]

Just wanted to pop my head in here.  I've been busy, but I have been reading and enjoying these high level posts.  I like the concept of challenging the player of interest (O'Reilly) not just by saying another player (Saad) is better, but smartly tearing the two players apart and comparing the pieces.  I was also hoping Blue would utilize WOWY, and I was not disappointed.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-maple-leafs-to-go-to-draft-with-no-gm/

 

 

The Avs have made it known that O'Reilly is available.

 

Other neat bits in there:

-Buffalo talked to Tony Granato about reuniting him with Bylsma, but he'll stay in Detroit under Blashill.

-Detroit was previously unwilling to trade 1st rounder or Mantha, but has now changed positions pre-draft.

[WildCard]

And now my screen door is in worse shape than D4rk's.

:lol:  :lol:

Judging by their screen doors I guess TrueBlue and D4rk have something to offer in that department...

These are killing me today  :lol:

Judging by their screen doors I guess TrueBlue and D4rk have something to offer in that department...

 

 

 

But otherwise I think the first two names they ask for are Bogosian and Ristolainen. I can't see that happening and would be highly disappointed if it did. I don't think it will.

Outside of them we've got Zadorov, Gorges, Pysyk, McCabe and Weber to offer in a deal. Zadorov is the popular name, and I would expect that he would be a key piece to the deal if Colorado believes that he can play in the NHL right now (which could be why Murray/Bylsma put out to the media that they believe he can). The most popular offer is some variation of Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21 and maybe another piece. I could see Colorado pushing for something like Zadorov and one of the other dmen I just mentioned excluding Bogo/Risto, 21 and a prospect (Grigorenko, Larsson, Compher, Hurley).

 

If the deal is Zadorov, Weber/Gorges, Grigorenko and 21 then I think it's a definite yes. If Weber/Gorges has to be one of Pysyk/McCabe then I don't give them the extra prospect and might want a lesser defensive prospect coming back our way.

That's way too much to give up. IMO

Agreed. But it's probably the asking price.