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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

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Everyone needs to keep calm.

 

The odds are still well against the Sabres getting McDavid. And by "well against," I mean less than a 25% likelihood -- so it's greater than 75% likely that we don't get him.

 

I have been steadily predicting that the Islanders are going to stink next year. I still don't think they'll make the playoffs, but as others have pointed out, it's likely that having Halak elevates them from a bottom-5 team to a bottom-12 team.

 

And while the Sabres are still probably the worst team in the NHL, there are going to be a number of teams that intentionally tank next year. I also think a full year of Nolan, plus not losing Miller and Ott at the deadline, is likely to result in a reasonable improvement in total points by the Sabres next year. So it's quite possible that the Sabres could finish 3rd-worse or 4th-worse next year.

 

In other words: don't be surprised if the Sabres are picking #4 and #11 next year. And if that happens, don't start carrying on about how unfair life is and how Buffalo always gets screwed.

Agree 100%.

 

The Sabres finished dead last by 15 points and still didn't come away with the #1 pick. Fans may be setting themselves up for some huge disappointment. The Sabres are going into the 2015 draft with three #1 picks, it's up to Tim Murray to maximize those assets which may include moving some of the picks.

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I like how many Americans I'm seeing at the top of that list. It is early still, but this could be a big part of another surge for American hockey a few years down the line.

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This thread's gonna be so bonerific.

 

There's not much historical precedence for how bonerific this will be. The Blue Jackets just had three first round picks at 14th, 19th, and 27th overall, which netted them Alexander Wennberg ©, Kirby Reichel (LW), and Marko Dano (RW), respectively. That's a full line of first rounders, probably some mixture of their top line three years from now.

 

But we're talking about a set of three draft picks that in good probability will end up looking like #2-5, #3-9, and #15-22. And that will add to our #12 Grigorenko, #14 Girgensens, #8 Ritstolainen, #16 Zadorov, and our #2 ______ , not to mention our bounty of 2nd rounders.

That's 7 first round picks plus something like 10 total second round picks over those years (maybe off on the 2nds) which when you consider that something like 90% of all goals in the NHL are scored by 1st/2nd overall picks, quite encouraging.

 

I like how many Americans I'm seeing at the top of that list. It is early still, but this could be a big part of another surge for American hockey a few years down the line.

I actually hope we draft a few more Americans, just because it'd be nice to have someone from the Sabres to cheer for on a US Olympic team.

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399 day 10 hours and 45 minutes until the 2015 draft kicks off.

 

They should just move this draft to Buffalo already.

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That's 7 first round picks plus something like 10 total second round picks over those years (maybe off on the 2nds) which when you consider that something like 90% of all goals in the NHL are scored by 1st/2nd overallround picks, quite encouraging.

 

I fixed that for you...I think?

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Here is to tavaras breaking his leg on first day at practice :clapping:

Any chances Tanya Harding is a Sabres fan?

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I fixed that for you...I think?

yes you did, my bad. 1st and 2nd round picks score the majority of the NHL's goals.

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Everyone needs to keep calm.

 

The odds are still well against the Sabres getting McDavid. And by "well against," I mean less than a 25% likelihood -- so it's greater than 75% likely that we don't get him.

 

I have been steadily predicting that the Islanders are going to stink next year. I still don't think they'll make the playoffs, but as others have pointed out, it's likely that having Halak elevates them from a bottom-5 team to a bottom-12 team.

 

And while the Sabres are still probably the worst team in the NHL, there are going to be a number of teams that intentionally tank next year. I also think a full year of Nolan, plus not losing Miller and Ott at the deadline, is likely to result in a reasonable improvement in total points by the Sabres next year. So it's quite possible that the Sabres could finish 3rd-worse or 4th-worse next year.

 

In other words: don't be surprised if the Sabres are picking #4 and #11 next year. And if that happens, don't start carrying on about how unfair life is and how Buffalo always gets screwed.

 

 

I don't know where to start here. I strongly disagree on so many levels except one, the Islanders will stink next year, that much is certain. Halak helping them move up that much in the standings is absolutely ridiculous. We finished last with a goalie who won a vezina! The Islanders have Many needs to address to get out of the bottom 7, halak is a step in the right direction. Mark my words: "NYI finishes in the bottom 10, I will guarantee that. I won't be surprised if they finish 5-7". Let's not forget, viznovsky is their top dman and they lost a 1st line winger.

 

As far as the Sabres go, I don't understand how not having Ott and miller will help us not finish last, if anything it all but guaranteed we will. A few teams Might try to intentionally tank, but there is no way we don't finish last again! If you disagree go look at our roster, them look at everyone else's. It's pretty obvious we have a last place team(without selling anyone else, which we very well might do). So we have a 25% chance at McDavid(slightly higher depending on NYI) and a 100% chance at Eichel. No team can move up more then 1 pick, so if we lose the lottery we get 2nd, just like this year.

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Well I firmly believe the Sabres will suck next year I will repeat for the 90th time the fact that I would not expect the NYI to be in the bottom five again. They will be an 11-15th team.

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I don't know where to start here. I strongly disagree on so many levels except one, the Islanders will stink next year, that much is certain. Halak helping them move up that much in the standings is absolutely ridiculous. We finished last with a goalie who won a vezina! The Islanders have Many needs to address to get out of the bottom 7, halak is a step in the right direction. Mark my words: "NYI finishes in the bottom 10, I will guarantee that. I won't be surprised if they finish 5-7". Let's not forget, viznovsky is their top dman and they lost a 1st line winger.

 

As far as the Sabres go, I don't understand how not having Ott and miller will help us not finish last, if anything it all but guaranteed we will. A few teams Might try to intentionally tank, but there is no way we don't finish last again! If you disagree go look at our roster, them look at everyone else's. It's pretty obvious we have a last place team(without selling anyone else, which we very well might do). So we have a 25% chance at McDavid(slightly higher depending on NYI) and a 100% chance at Eichel. No team can move up more then 1 pick, so if we lose the lottery we get 2nd, just like this year.

 

We can have it all folks. Buffalo can be the most improved team in the league and still finish last.

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Well I firmly believe the Sabres will suck next year I will repeat for the 90th time the fact that I would not expect the NYI to be in the bottom five again. They will be an 11-15th team.

 

I don't think they will be a bottom 5. In my opinion, they could be 11-15th if, and only if they acquire some free agents

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I don't know where to start here. I strongly disagree on so many levels except one, the Islanders will stink next year, that much is certain. Halak helping them move up that much in the standings is absolutely ridiculous. We finished last with a goalie who won a vezina! The Islanders have Many needs to address to get out of the bottom 7, halak is a step in the right direction. Mark my words: "NYI finishes in the bottom 10, I will guarantee that. I won't be surprised if they finish 5-7". Let's not forget, viznovsky is their top dman and they lost a 1st line winger.

 

As far as the Sabres go, I don't understand how not having Ott and miller will help us not finish last, if anything it all but guaranteed we will. A few teams Might try to intentionally tank, but there is no way we don't finish last again! If you disagree go look at our roster, them look at everyone else's. It's pretty obvious we have a last place team(without selling anyone else, which we very well might do). So we have a 25% chance at McDavid(slightly higher depending on NYI) and a 100% chance at Eichel. No team can move up more then 1 pick, so if we lose the lottery we get 2nd, just like this year.

 

The last time our goaltender won the Vezina we won our division. I don't see how you can use Miller's Vezina season in the context of this year and hope to prove a point.

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This year I wasn't actively rooting for the Sabres to lose, but I will be in this upcoming season. This draft means so much to this franchise.

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This year I wasn't actively rooting for the Sabres to lose, but I will be in this upcoming season. This draft means so much to this franchise.

 

...says the guy with the best tank avatar and most tank-oriented user name.

Edited by IKnowPhysics

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...says the guy with the best tank avatar and most tank-oriented user name.

 

Haha I used a qualifier. I didn't actively root against them. I would just separate myself emotionally while watching. And then later in the game I would be bummed if they scored, but I never got excited when the other team scored. This year I'll be excited when the other team scores (unless it's a select few players/teams) and disappointed when we score. I'm diving in all the way.

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I don't know where to start here. I strongly disagree on so many levels except one, the Islanders will stink next year, that much is certain. Halak helping them move up that much in the standings is absolutely ridiculous. We finished last with a goalie who won a vezina! The Islanders have Many needs to address to get out of the bottom 7, halak is a step in the right direction. Mark my words: "NYI finishes in the bottom 10, I will guarantee that. I won't be surprised if they finish 5-7". Let's not forget, viznovsky is their top dman and they lost a 1st line winger.

 

As far as the Sabres go, I don't understand how not having Ott and miller will help us not finish last, if anything it all but guaranteed we will. A few teams Might try to intentionally tank, but there is no way we don't finish last again! If you disagree go look at our roster, them look at everyone else's. It's pretty obvious we have a last place team(without selling anyone else, which we very well might do). So we have a 25% chance at McDavid(slightly higher depending on NYI) and a 100% chance at Eichel. No team can move up more then 1 pick, so if we lose the lottery we get 2nd, just like this year.

 

Leaving aside your unusual capitalization habits, let's look at the facts:

 

After the Miller/Ott trade, the Sabres won 3 of their last 22 games.

 

In the 33 games prior to the trade, the Sabres were 12-21-7 -- i.e. 31 points in 33 games, which projects to 80 points over a full season. That would've been good for #24 in the NHL last year.

 

You make a valid point about them not having Ott and Miller next year (although re-signing Ott is a possibility). My point about trading them is that the team suffered a major stomach punch by losing its 2 biggest leaders. The run for the bus was on. Next year, new leaders will emerge. Whatever trades are made at the deadline won't affect the team's psyche nearly as much as the Ott/Miller trade did.

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Well I firmly believe the Sabres will suck next year I will repeat for the 90th time the fact that I would not expect the NYI to be in the bottom five again. They will be an 11-15th team.

 

I agree. I don't know why people think just because Snow is the GM that they will be bad. They have a lot of young talent coming and I expect their goaltending to be better. They the Islanders have lots of cap space and could make more moves. Snow isn't just going to sit there and say yeah we will be bad and give Buffalo a solid shot at McDavid. Not happening folks! Only way they are bad if this team gets decimated by injuries.

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I hope I'm wrong but I think they will be better than most people expect.

 

How confident would you be in that statement if it was the Sabres in Isles position? Exactly. Its the friggin Islanders.

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They have a lot of young talent coming and I expect their goaltending to be better. They the Islanders have lots of cap space and could make more moves.

 

No one has more young talent coming or cap space than the Sabres.

I expect Buffalo's goaltending to be better - we picked Enroth and Neuvirth over Halak.

And, after all, Miller is only average.

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I'd expect the Sabres, barring any major offseason changes, to finish no better than the third worst team in the league. The Isles COULD end up in the playoffs, but I doubt that. I see them finishing in the bottom eight or so in the league. My gut/pessimistic brain tells me Buffalo will be drafting at 3 and 9 or so next year.

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I'd expect the Sabres, barring any major offseason changes, to finish no better than the third worst team in the league. The Isles COULD end up in the playoffs, but I doubt that. I see them finishing in the bottom eight or so in the league. My gut/pessimistic brain tells me Buffalo will be drafting at 3 and 9 or so next year.

 

I see the Sabres drafting 1st overall and one of 4/5/6/7.

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OK, I know I'm in the minority on this, but I don't get this "Islanders will be picking in the teens" consensus that seems to be forming.

Pretty well all of us are in agreement the Sabres will be really bad next year.

Other than Tavares, what makes the Islanders so much better?

 

Who's more likely to spend more money, Wang or Pegula?

Who's more likely to make smart trades, Snow or Murray?

Who's more likely to inspire his team to overachieve, Capuano or Nolan?

 

Who's a better goalie combo, Halak/Nilsson or Enroth/Neuvirth?

Who are better top-pairing defencemen, Visnovsky/Hamonic or Ehrhoff/Myers?

Which is a better group of front-line forwards, Grabner/Nielsen/Okposo/Bailey or Ennis/Hodgson/Stafford/Stewart?

Which is better group of support players, Clutterbuck/Martin/Cizikas/Carkner/Hickey or Kaleta/Mitchell/Flynn/Weber/McBain?

Which is a better group of emerging young players, Strome/Nelson/Reinhart/Czuczman/Dehaan/Pokka/Lee/pick 5 or Gigensons/Foligno/Ristolainen/Pysyk/Zadorov/McCabe/Larsson/Grigorenko/pick 2

 

Tavares is an amazing player, but he is the only significant difference in that mix.

Take him out and I think Buffalo is better.

Edited by dudacek

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OK, I know I'm in the minority on this, but I don't get this "Islanders will be picking in the teens" consensus that seems to be forming.

Pretty well all of us are in agreement the Sabres will be really bad next year.

Other than Tavares, what makes the Islanders so much better?

 

Who's more likely to spend more money, Wang or Pegula?

Who's more likely to make smart trades, Snow or Murray?

Who's more likely to inspire his team to overachieve, Capuano or Nolan?

 

Who's a better goalie combo, Halak/Nilsson or Enroth/Neuvirth?

Who are better top-pairing defencemen, Visnovsky/Hamonic or Ehrhoff/Myers?

Which is a better group of front-line forwards, Grabner/Nielsen/Okposo/Bailey or Ennis/Hodgson/Stafford/Stewart?

Which is better group of support players, Clutterbuck/Martin/Lee/Carkner/Hickey or Kaleta/Mitchell/Flynn/Weber/McBain?

Which is a better group of emerging young players, Strome/Nelson/Reinhart/Czuczman/Dehaan/Pokka/Lee/pick 5 or Gigensons/Foligno/Ristolainen/Pysyk/Zadorov/McCabe/Larsson/Grigorenko/pick 2

 

Tavares is an amazing player, but he is the only significant difference in that mix.

Take him out and I think Buffalo is better.

 

I don't think that's the consensus at all. My estimation is there's a pretty even split right now.

 

For me, it's simple: the Isles' goaltending this season gave them an .894 sv%. That's absurdly, obscenely pathetic. League average was .914. I posted a tweet a few days ago that just getting league average would give them 50 fewer goals allowed if they allow the same number of shots. Fifty!!! Even if we decide to use some optimistic (from a Sabres perspective) assumptions and Halak can't uphold his career average behind that D and Okposo comes back down to Earth a little, you're still probably looking at around a +30 swing in goal differential. I know this is an overly simplistic way of looking at it, but that alone puts them in 8-10 territory in the East. They were also 19th in the league in possession, which obviously isn't good, but it's also not atrocious sure-fire top-5 pick territory either.

 

Also keep in mind, the Sabres were 27 points worse than the Islanders this season--that's much more of a difference than just Tavares. The Sabres could have a much more productive offseason than the Isles and take more steps to improve, and still be worse by a fair margin. And I don't expect them to make that many moves to get better, either.

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