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-Derby 2014


plenzmd1

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I'm basing all of my picks pretty much on pedigree and trainer this year. Especially now that Mike Smith doesn't have a ride with Hoppertunity scratched.

 

1. Chitu

2. Danza

3. Ride on Curlin

 

There are a lot of racers in this field who seem to be made for the sprint, but the last few years have all been about stamina so I'm picking horses that have stamina in their breeding. No pure sprinters for me.

 

The weather also looks perfect this year.

 

Also just registered on twinspires. I might throw a little down this year just for the hell of it. Never done it before. :P

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Race 6) This is the one we go for it.....

 

#5 Scatman (6-1) - #4 Marchman (4-1) - #6 Positive Side......Scatman is 12-1 on the morning line, which is an overlay. Has only run 2 times on turf and clunked....but is ALL TURF in his pedigree. 1st time with new trainer and I think this is great spot. Marchman was long odds but did great last few races. He is 4 years old and can still improve nicely. Big exacta play. Positive Side ran right with Marchman and belongs.

 

 

Thank you for this, and i will be playing your Oaks pick as well. Heres to hoping we have more money at 7PM tonight than we have now! 12 minutes to post, he is 10 -1 as i bet him...lets go. BTW, when i play numbers it is always 5-4, and 5-4-9 triple...good sign hopefully!

 

(edit after race) Oh well, the 4 got his nose across first, 6 got 3rd. 5 got 4th at 13-1.....the #2 killed us in second..rat bastard!

 

Damn you know your turf races though...nice analysis of this race, just bad luck we not getting paid!

 

.lets go Sophia!

 

Also just registered on twinspires. I might throw a little down this year just for the hell of it. Never done it before. :P

 

Twinspires is great. Been using for a few years now.

 

I live in Virginia, and the track that runs all the OTBs down here and the Horsemans Associated are in a pissin match on racing days for the summer, so the OTBs are no longer taking thoroughbred wagers. Obviously, most people have no idea...should be interesting tomorrow at those places with people rolling up to make bets

Edited by plenzmd1
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Thank you for this, and i will be playing your Oaks pick as well. Heres to hoping we have more money at 7PM tonight than we have now!

 

 

 

Twinspires is great. Been using for a few years now.

 

I live in Virginia, and the track that runs all the OTBs down here and the Horsemans Associated are in a pissin match on racing days for the summer, so the OTBs are no longer taking thoroughbred wagers. Obviously, most people have no idea...should be interesting tomorrow at those places with people rolling up to make bets

 

d4rk just opened a twinspires.com account......it's only a matter of time before Jo opens a Match.com account........Trust Me! :)

 

I hope this 6th goes well. It could make the weekend. The exactas are paying well too. 5-4 should be 110-120.....160 both ways right now. If I go down, I go down swinging.....

 

 

 

We need a Sabrespace Rainbow6 players pool.....

 

At Gulfstream.... pick the winner of last 6 races. Only 20 cents a combination. If you have the only winning ticket, you take down over $5 million right now. It only pays out 20% to the winning tickets if more than 1 winner...which has been the case for a few months now. It actually has been paying out close to real odds because everyone is chasing the horses with no shot, trying to be the only winner. I play if it's mainly turf, but only for $10-20. I had 5 of 6 for what would have been an $8K payoff a few weeks ago and lost by a nose. You get nothing for 5 out of 6.

 

 

F### THE PATRIOTS!

 

Wes Welker's horse just blew the trifecta by hitting 2nd......

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K in on the Oaks..took your Tri and Super keys for $2(protected a bit with$ .50 tri and ..$.10 Super with 13 on top).

$5 Exacta Box 11/7-4

Put a good bit on the nose # 11 to win and a smidge to place.

 

Hit this, and dont need to make a deposit tomorrow morning...and that would make wifey poo happy!

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K in on the Oaks..took your Tri and Super keys for $2(protected a bit with$ .50 tri and ..$.10 Super with 13 on top).

$5 Exacta Box 11/7-4

Put a good bit on the nose # 11 to win and a smidge to place.

 

Hit this, and dont need to make a deposit tomorrow morning...and that would make wifey poo happy!

 

I am crappin out today. Sophia or bust.....

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well, good thing for me then is i only played the 6th and this one coming up. Kinda like Trotter..I didn't lose!!!!..when he gets shut out

 

BTW,Let it Ride is one of the best sports/gambling movies EVER, does not get the recognition it deserves.

 

Edited by plenzmd1
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Good movie....pretty authentic.

 

I'm not loving the Derby, but trying a My Miss Sophia/ Ride On Curlin double. Wicked Strong looks like the prototypical Derby horse to me and liked him a little coming in, but they are betting him and he is outside with a recent best. Ride On Curlin has been a decently fast horse all along, and he does one thing most horses can't that gives him a real shot.....he can make 2 runs. What I mean by that is he has enough natural speed to not get stuck in the back but ideally shouldn't go to the front if he wants to win. In a few of his races he relaxes and halfway through the race, makes a move for 10 seconds or so then can relax again......then going into the final turn he makes another move. The key is he needs to relax from the start and not get stuck wide like he has been.

 

They are betting Intense Holiday, Danza, and Dance With Fate. Of the 3...Dance With Fate is gorgeous....just hasn't shown top form on dirt. I will throw him in with Tapiture and Harry's Holiday for trifectas and maybe a super. If I'm not broke....I guess I will throw in California Chrome....but not really interested. If he wins, God bless.

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You'll have to talk me out of Chitu, boss. My trifecta would be Chitu, Wicked, A-Rod. I haven't bet since I had to lie to my mom, way back in 5th grade, to cover Super Bowl XXV. I said it was for school supplies, but the $5 bet was on the Bills. I'd put $420 on Chitu, if I had it.

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UNFN...Horse flips next to Sophia and lands under her stall......SOB......

 

I have never seen that. I chit you not, i think the 9 having a poop in the gate freaked that 10 out!.

 

I know bad day today, but if you like some of the other races would be greatly appreciated..especially your turf picks :worthy:

 

BTW, got your deuce in the 12th

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I have never seen that. I chit you not, i think the 9 having a poop in the gate freaked that 10 out!.

 

I know bad day today, but if you like some of the other races would be greatly appreciated..especially your turf picks :worthy:

 

At least the 10 didn't get hung up which is dangerous and scary. Then Fashion Plate did the same but popped back up. If that was NY, the rule is you have to scratch even if you butt hits the ground for 1 millisecond. We had that happen to a horse once when she was the favorite. I almost puked. Fashion Plate was fried though and never even ran because of it.

 

I will work on the Derby card tonight. Maybe I can find a turf saver. I wish I had the willpower to only bet turf and select dirt races. I have been to the Handicapping Nationals 3 times, but they run in Jan/Feb and there is little turf around. I need to go to Vegas for the summer one that is big money. One of these days.....one of these days!........

 

Sophia had no excuse....I thought it went perfect....normal fractions, and she had first jump on Tapiture. No shame in coming in 2nd by 6 over 3rd...but 3 of 4 don't pay on the super either....I still am in love with her. She was as cool as a cucumber with all those shenanigans and didn't get stepped on. If they are smart and she is healthy...she wins the G1 Acorn by 5 on Belmont weekend. I'd gear her for the Test at Saratoga and the Filly+Mare BC Sprint at 7 furlongs. She will make an amazing mama too. One of my top 10 horses I have seen.

 

Don't trust me to bet, btw. I'd be all about impressing the women, and forget all about which horse was running in which race. Lovely hats though.

 

So you saw Johnny Weir too?

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OK...F This....I need to go to the bloodbank tomorrow to get some betting cash.....

 

 

Derby Day...10:30 AM Post

 

Race 1) #3 Nick's Pick (4-1).................I like it. Should improve with mile being perfect distance and experience.....like it.

 

Race 2) #1 No Surrender (7-5).......Pletcher just bought it. Bet the 3-1 Double in the 1st.

 

Race 3) #2 Reeder (5-1)......should like Churchill. Lukewarm

 

Race 4) ******Turf Special.....#2 Faeire Queene (8-1) - #4 Kimallosa (9-2) - 10- 7........One of my favorite turf pedigree crosses. Hasn't run on turf in 10 months....love it. Box with the 4 in exacta and key in tri with the 4-10-7

 

Race 5) #1 Watery Moon - 7...............wide open race. Like the distance and surface switch. Little box 1-7

 

Race 6) 2-8-6-9-7..........Wide open turf race. I would only bet the 2-8-6. Maybe an exacta and tri box. I like the 6 at 10-1...but the 2 is best overall value at 5-1 or so.

 

Race 7) #5 Sherzinger (5-1) - 8 - 3 - 6..........Love the trainer and the pedigree at the distance.

 

Race 8) Turf...#7 Big Bazinga.....liked this guy on Derby Trail. He has turf action. It's a pretty open race but good value at 6-1 or better.

 

Race 9) No Clue

 

Race 10) Wise Dan will be 3-5 and Kaigun #5 is the only one with a shot to beat him. Will be 4-1 or so. Worth a shot.

 

KY Derby) Going with #19 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - #20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - #15 Tapiture (20-1) - #12 Dance With Fate (15-1) - # 2 Harry's Holiday (50-1)- #5 California Chrome (3-1)

 

Not excited. Bet who you like.

 

 

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Thank you GoDD. so if I read correctly, you like race 4 the best.

 

Any horses with Cozzene in bloodlines still running? Man , I used to bet that bloodline heavy on turf, always profitable.

 

Yes...4th is my favorite.

 

One of my favorite turf sires is Mizzen Mast, who is by Cozzene. Very few are good on the dirt, so if they run a bunch on dirt before they try turf, you can get huge odds. Other than that, only Running Stag and Alphabet Soup still have runners. Alphabet Soup is so-so for turf, but Running Stag is a sneaky good influence. Not tons of them but they pop up a lot in FL on the dam side. We had a Running Stag colt out of a Rahy mare that had graded turf winners in the family who I picked up for $3K as a weanling to keep another poor weanling company who had his mama die. He had a tendon issue and ended up with the inmates taking care of him at the state prison.

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WOO HOO Nice hit in the 4th!

 

Played with the 7 in the exactas(my number plays always add up to 9)...$19 to win and $133 exacta!!!!!!!!

 

Back to positive territory, lots o money to play with in the derby. Off to golf now, so cant lose in all back this afternoon

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WOO HOO Nice hit in the 4th!

 

Played with the 7 in the exactas(my number plays always add up to 9)...$19 to win and $133 exacta!!!!!!!!

 

Back to positive territory, lots o money to play with in the derby. Off to golf now, so cant lose in all back this afternoon

 

Did it easy....I was relieved.

 

Don't know if you bet the 6th, but a win....and a 36-1 shot came in 2nd blowing the tri and super for me. I went 2-8/6-7-9.....final was 2-4-8-7-9....Super payed $11K on a buck.

 

Another loser horseplayer quip.....2 minutes to post, I go to take a pee and the 2 is 8-1.....look at the tote 3 seconds after the win and 5-1. How does that happen on Derby Day?

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Another loser horseplayer quip.....2 minutes to post, I go to take a pee and the 2 is 8-1.....look at the tote 3 seconds after the win and 5-1. How does that happen on Derby Day?

 

 

....must be some coke dealer went nuts again.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

 

 

 

F### THE PATRIOTS!

 

Wes Welker's horse just blew the trifecta by hitting 2nd......

 

Hate this litlle pric..

 

http://www.tmz.com/2014/05/16/wes-welker-churchill-down-kentucky-derby-overpayment-15k/

 

So, give me something of the card in the next couple of hours GoDD...any turf races coming up?

 

BTW, not betting Preakness..just see no value in it at all..but will watch

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