Broken Ankles
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Posts posted by Broken Ankles
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Power straight up.
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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:
I agree with Robinson...he has had a LOT of good chances around the net and seemingly always shoots the puck right into the goalie.
Which is maybe why he was a waiver pick up? If KA can find a 4th line that doesn’t a) cost over $7m, and b) can generate chances and convert at a higher rate, while c) not sacrificing defense/higher 5v5 GA then we will be better off.
Look at what Vancouver did last offseason. They improved the bottom six and it’s paying dividends for them this year. -
53 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:
Isn't sorta the opposite? Maybe I am wrong, but aren't goals expected based on the quality and quantity of chances? So, Benny has had tons of good chances (I think we can all remember quite few) and has not converted (luck, bad shooter, whatevs), some for Cozzy. Tage, on the other hand, it seems like he is scoring when he should - which means he is not getting very many good chances to score.
Apologies in advance if I am making up the meaning of the fancy stats in my head and derailing the whole thing.
Your understanding is correct. However the screen shot I first provided shows both expected goals per 60 (column 2) and goals above expected per 60. I used this measurement because @mjd1001 was using the goal/60 stat for Zemgus in another thread. And if you agree with the Money Pucks algorithm that converts quality chances to “expected goals” (and it’s ok if you don’t agree and use your observations), then my contention is that you cannot simply just rank the players on the team and derive anything (for any of these metrics - expected/60, goals/60, or goals above expected/60). For example, the perception from my reading on this site is Benson is struggling scoring but he is getting tons of chances. Compared to other Sabres this year, he is behind all players on FL1, plus Kyle, JJP and Robinson. Not bad for a rookie at all. But my contention is the Sabres in general are bad, real bad, so a ranking of 7 isn’t great. Look at that metric to last year’s Sabres as well as other FL2/3 players on different teams this year and it will provide more context. My observation was that Benson replaced Olofsson between the 23 & 24 seasons, and the chances for Victor last year (5v5) was significantly better than Benson this year. Coupled with the fact that VO converted more of these opportunities helps explain the drop in overall goal scoring for this years team. And while Cozens expected goals remained about the same (good sign), others like Tage dropped Year over year. So TNT not coverting at same rate (maybe lucky last year) coupled with fewer quality chances means his actual 5v5 production is half of what it was last year. Using the YoY comparison allowed me to disagree with others that Tage has had the same level of Quality chances/60. I’m saying it’s way down. Eye test confirms he is missing more, and that is confirmed when you look at Tages stat goals above expected/60 this year compared to last. If you ONLY look at the stat for this season and just Sabres, Tage ranks #2 (1.3 goals above expected) and would lead you to believe he’s having an OK year 5v5 and all the problems are on PP. I disagree with this assessment and believe the problems are across the roster and and we need improvement in 5v5 play. Of course PP issues exist and it’s a glaring problem. They are bottom 5 most of the season. No disputing its needs an overhaul.
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2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:
The statistic here just tells me Cozens and Benson have done the work but haven’t been rewarded whereas Peterka is having some puck luck. Anything within 2 to -2 really isn’t a story as it’s merely a margin of error.
Cozens expected goals/60 is less this year than last year, but it’s close. We had better hope the difference is bad puck luck this year and not that’s he’s a perennial below expectation performer. Benson expected goals/60 is significantly below Olofsson’s efforts last year. So it’s puck luck (actual below expected) and fewer quality chances for Benson this year compared to Victor in 22/3. So question mark if you want to say Benson did the work. Lastly, Tage’s expected goals/60 is way below 2022/3. So not bad in terms of actual/expected but generating fewer quality chances per 60. The combination of the two has resulted in his actual goals/60 cut in half compared to last year. All of these are are 5v5 stats.
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15 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:
I'll have to look up the numbers but the bolded doesn't sound right.
Here is what Money puck shows in terms of actual scoring against expected goals.
@mjd1001 how do you reconcile this chart? It implies that as you suggest, Cozens is just awful. Not comparing previous years, just not converting this year. In fact the worst Sabre by a lot in terms of actual/expected. Notice that Benson is also way below expectations, which makes sense to me and also contributes to lack of scoring. The person he replaced (Olofsson) was at the opposite end of the spectrum last year, scoring way above expectations. I believe little things like this contribute to the lack of overall offense. Where is the Ire for Benson for not only scoring less than Victor but below his even lower expected goals? Why does he get slack?
The chart also this suggests Tage is fine in terms of execution. While not scoring near the same rate of last year, this means he isn’t creating quality chances, or at least to the level level of last year. -
2 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:
I would be willing to open the door IF they actually beat the next 3 superior opponents.
Interesting note. Yesterday before the Columbus game, the Sabres were +165 against Carolina and today it’s +135. The book seemingly rejecting the fact God doesn’t want this team to win 3 in a row. How is the line not moving in the other direction?
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Old school hockey fight. Great stamina from each pugilist. #Haymakers.
https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/n269050
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Dearest Rachel,Indications are very strong that this campaign will soon be over. Fear not, as divine providence will return our regiment to western New York in the summer to prepare for a siege in the fall. Tonight’s battle in Ohio could likely affect our recruitment this June. I have no misgivings or lack of confidence in our plan, and even though we are fighting a weaker opponent, Gods will is that if we are not defeated now, it’s a certainty in the Carolinas this weekend.
As always, my resolve is strong.
Captain Tage Thomas
100th volunteer infantry regiment
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43 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:
atta boy Cody
Cody or Liev?
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7 teenagers talking through the entire showing of One Love this weekend. Absolutely ruined the event. Movie wasn’t spectacular by biopic standards but nevertheless. No one to complain to at the Theatre. I saw one kid both scanning and helping at the kiosk where you buy tickets. Will we have theaters in 25 years? I can say I have no interest in going anytime soon.
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1 hour ago, pi2000 said:
Still the youngest team in the league, have some patience. They're learning right now, trust the process.
Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Isn’t that the idea? Throw out some babies and get some grown ass men?
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It’s OK boys. Donny and his Cracker Jack staff are going to make the proper adjustments and shut this team down in the third and will them to an OT victory!!
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5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:
So much time to whip that puck around to Ryan J, but Erik J just holds it until the forecheck arrives. Gah.
(forecheck their D and force them into easy turnovers was the Ducks broadcast's #1 key to the game.)
Rob Rays key to the game was “play fast”. Must have come up in the producers random draw.
How is JJP getting 2 for that?
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In contrast, our neighbors up north just signed Keefe to a two year extension this summer but rumors late January was that he was on the hot seat, and the front office might consider a change. Their team is solidly in third place of the division, Keefe just signed an extension and yet he is in the hot seat. But Donny’s subpar performance doesn’t qualify for the same? That’s because they run a business, not a f#*$ing charity. Did you hear anything from Leaf players about support for their coach? Because the players are professional and they know it’s a business about winning. Apparently this memo hasn’t matriculated to the locker room south of the border.
Maybe platitudes, but this is all you need to do to ingratiate yourself to the fans. 50 second mark of his post game last night.
https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/video/auston-matthews-post-game-6347135355112
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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:
Here is the cost for June 2024, followed by June 2025 and June 2026
The biggest blockade will be the owner
Looking at the June ‘25 option, if the Sabres retained $3m in a trade, the net dollars paid by Terry would be less than a buyout ($6m vs $8m). Coupled with Skinners actual salary of $7 & $5m, the team acquiring him would only have an actual salary of $4m and $2m respectively. Instead of compensating a team to take on a huge cap dump of $9m per, the Sabres should be able to receive something back, no? And the total cap retained ($6m over two years) is much better than $14m over four.
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11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:
Ok. Blow the team up. Change coaches. Change GM's. They all may be valid points. But maybe its simpler than that.
What is wrong/different with this team compared to last year's team, which was 1 point away from the playoffs?
-This team is allowing less goals than last year. They are now middle-of-the-pack and actually improving the last few weeks. They have a goalie who not only has pretty good numbers, he passes the 'eye test' also.
Scoring is the problem but:
-Peterka is doing better than last year. Skinner is basically giving you close to the scoring of last year. Dahlin has less assists but is scoring more goals. Mitts is better offensively. Greenway and Okposo are better offensively.
Basically, this team is equal to, or BETTER than last years team in MOST ways other than: Thompson scoring, Cozens scoring, and Tuch Scoring (Tuch isn't as big of an issue as the other 2, and it may be related to injury with him.) VO is off also, but his play is made up for basically by Peterka, and few think/thought VO was long for this team anyway.
So yea, the results aren't what anyone wants....but its not the whole team. Much of the team is equal to last year or BETTER. The question may not be how or why to make wholesale changes, or blow everything up....but rather how/why are Thompson, Cozens, maybe Tuch and Power issues.
I don't want to blow the whole team up yet....I don't want to make major changes yet. I want to fix Tage, Cozens, and Power (mostly) as those guys are 3 of your 'core 4 or 5'.
If a coaching change or GM change 'fixes' those guys, then great. But I know when people say we have waited and endured 'too long' and just want 'something to be done', I'm not quite sure what coach...or GM...comes in here and just makes those guys better. Because, while the rest of the team is 'flawed', overall they are giving you want they did last year or in some cases are better than last year.
No buts…Scoring is a problem. Don’t try to dilute that with anecdotal numbers for JJP or Mitts. The GF last year, same games played was 197. It’s 155 this year. That’s 42 goals. The PP rate last year was ~.75 per game. I hear how the Sabres are middle of the pack in even strength and the problem is all special teams. If the PP rate was equal to 22/23, using that ratio it would increase the GF total by 17 goals. 42-17= 25 goals difference. This year the Sabres have scored 2 or fewer goals 23 times. Last year through 53 games it was 8 less. Scoring is a problem.
The GA is down YoY by 20 because better overall goaltending and arguably improved play by the defenseman. I do not see much improvement in defensive play by the forward group. Hence the need to shake things up a bit. For me, more on the forward side than D. I’d prefer 5-6 new faces there and 2 new on the Blueline. The game against Florida confirmed it for me that the roster as currently constructed could not win a playoff series against most of the top 16 teams in the League.
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35 minutes ago, #freejame said:
Hell yeah, let’s chase away @PerreaultForever so we can have even fewer solid posters around here!
My God I understand taking potshots at the guy because of the Bruins thing, but it’s undeniable he’s a knowledgeable and devoted Sabres fan. It’s every ***** day with this ***** now.
Yesterday I saw multiple posts celebrating @LGR4GM posting less. There’s posters I’ve been shaking my head at for 15 years. I wouldn’t be happy to see any of them leave.
Some of you need to grow the hell up. There’s enough of this ***** in every other facet of life. Keep it away from here.
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Comrie in net, Master Algorithm says game after a Win exceeding 4 goals at home is always followed by a loss, Florida streaking, Panthers present match up problems for the Sabres, injuries to starting line up. This could be ugly. The ONLY thing they having going for them is Bryson is in the line up......(I never thought I would write that sentence, ever).
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1 hour ago, Standing Room Smoking Cigs said:
No offense to UPL.... he has been playing great.... but for the love of Pete.... he really needs a dental appointment... Now before you flame me... I'm old, a denture guy.... and yes, it has made my life better.... (which I wish I done years ago... and played hockey, box lacrosse ans spit out teeth)... the kid is are goalie...
Pretty sure most of standing room only crowd of the 70’s and 80’s Aud missed their fair share of dental visits. Great F***ing Moniker.
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53 minutes ago, carpandean said:
In the rink's cold gleam, where the Sabres took the stage,
The Kings met their match, in a zero-sum cage.
Ukko-Pekka stood tall, a wall in the net,
His fourth season shutout, the best one yet.Rookie Zack Benson, with grace on his skates,
Scored while falling, sealing the Kings' fates.
Jordan Greenway, with vigor and might,
Struck twice, assisted once, in the night's light.The scoreboard told tales of a 7-0 game,
A victory so sweet, it could never be tame.
Buffalo roared, their spirits alight,
For one glorious game, everything was right.(written by GPT-4)
Brilliant idea. Here is an ode to Sabre Space by Chat.
In the realm of hockey's digital embrace,
There's a forum known as Sabre Space.
Where fans unite with passion ablaze,
To discuss the Sabres in myriad ways.From roster moves to game day chatter,
Sabre Space is where it all does matter.
With threads galore and opinions to share,
It's a haven for fans who truly care.Through wins and losses, they stand as one,
In Sabre Space, the journey's never done.
With loyalty strong, like the rising sun,
They celebrate victories, each hard-fought one.So here's to Sabre Space, where fans convene,
To share their love for the team unseen.
In every post, in every meme,
Their Buffalo pride forever gleams.-
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12 hours ago, shrader said:
The Reilly thing got me thinking. If there actually was a penalty for the Ottawa guy being a douche, what would the signal be for the call?
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7 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:
I agree whom they play with can be a factor for expected goal %, especially if you don't do much mixing and matching. However, Clifton was similarly bad on Boston last year. Numbers wise he's our worst PK D by a significant margin. And he consistently does not make plays 5 on 5.
He can hit though, and maybe that's what you like about him. Personally, I feel like we're closer to a wildcard if Clifton is Mr Press Box, and Ryan Johnson is on our bottom pair.
This just isn't true. Johnson is the worst. In the chart below from Natural Stat Trick, I have the top 5 D-men advanced stats for the entire year on top and then January 1st to present below. The data has actual TOI, Shots against, goals against and Expected GA for just PK. Then a calculation of XG, GA and Shots against divided by TOI. The shade is a ranking of each green - top two; Yellow - Third; Orange - 4th; and Magenta- last/worst. YTD Clifton is nothing to write home about, but you can see Johnson has more GA, higher Expected GA and shots, and when you factor in TOI, Johnson still ranks last in two categories and 4th in another. Whereas Clift is 3rd, 3rd and 4th.
Where it gets interesting is since January 1st, Power is last in Expected GA per minute, 4th in actual GA per minute while Clifton improves to second in two categories and third in another. Dahlin and Power are on the ice for 4 GA each and Power is seeing more TOI even though seemingly he is struggling. The eye test tells me that Power and Dahlin have struggled as of late on the PK as well. And as much as we bash Mattias, he was consistent throughout the year on the PK. As stated, a lot of this may have to do matchups - who is on the ice against PP#1 vs PP#2, but overall it tells me EJ has been our worst PK defenseman.
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I can see why Kyle had no interest last year, with a $6m cap hit. Even with retention, $3m was steep. This year at $2.5m, KO seems much more palatable. But Zemgus garnered zero interest last year, and yet somehow with seemingly worse (scoring and advanced) stats, less TOI (including PK) making slightly more money he is a target of a contender?
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1 hour ago, Believer said:
Wouldn’t be as adamant about trading Tuch as BuffaloSuperFan, but agree it is time for a major shakeup… including core players like Tuch…
My opinion will be unpopular… LV offered Tuch up for a reason… Adams bit on his Buffalo roots… despite shoulder surgery… On IR a couple times here… and has not lived up to the hype… Glides through too many periods… Has a mediocre shot and misses the net a lot… Granato moves him off the top line in recent games… Articulate and glib, but makes excuses in postgame interviews instead of flashing anger when the team plays poorly… Not Captain material except sentimentally, imo… If KA is resetting the roster, Tuch should be available for trade while he has high value.
Alex is 6th in shots per 60, behind the usual suspects (Tage, Skinner, Cozens, Peterka, Quinn), but third in list as a percentage of shots on net to shots attempted, only behind JJP and Quinn. So the shots are getting through. Are you sure your comments above are not about Benson, or Tage, or Skinner, or Olofsson, or Cozens? My point is lots of problems with this team, but you don’t start with a guy who is a true top six contributing making a mid to low AAV.
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