sabresparaavida
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Posts posted by sabresparaavida
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On 11/28/2023 at 2:51 PM, PerreaultForever said:
I think that when you say "most people" you mean Sabres fans with a bias. There are people here who pronounce prospects as stars long before they earn it. I don't buy in to that until I see it on NHL ice.
Spinning this into me saying Quinn is some sort of a bust is simply a twist on my words. We were speaking in hypotheticals about how to evaluate the success of analytics in drafts. I merely said at this point he doesn't look like the best choice. After the injury he might come back and show that he is the right choice. But assuming it's a fact before it happens is just wrong. Because of the injury I even give him an extra year before that pronouncement. But it's all hypothetical at this point.
Part of it is the language that you used in your earlier post. “We mighta blown that one” really comes off as he might be a bust. As a reader, it definitely a lot closer to Quinn being a possible bust than “at this point he might not be the best choice”.
In the NHL draft, you can’t expect a GM to pick the best remaining player on the board. There are great players that fall every year, some going in the 3rd-7th and in a redraft years later would end up top 5, but that doesn’t mean that the good players picked before them are “blown picks”.
Back to your actual points, I am still very content with the selection of Quinn. He had .51 PPG last year, which is a solid rookie season. Along with that, the history of his development has always been a moderate first year in the league, and an explosive second year. Hard to say that would continue in the NHL, but I still would have expected an uptick in production pre-injury. I’m not expecting a ton this year, but I have confidence he’ll be better than 3/4 of those players next year.
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2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:
One thing on Quinn. The more I read about this (and I have a friend who is an orthopedic doctor), the more I doubt he's going to bring anything much to the table in January. From what I've read, it takes 4-6 months before one can engage in physical activity. But typically 6-9 months before one can engage in heavier, strenuous activity. Then, there is hockey conditioning. I would bet mid-February before he really starts playing and first of March before we see him near full strength on the ice. That may be pessimistic, but I've seen others take longer. The whole Aaron Rodgers return this year seems highly risky. the
One thing here: hockey players typically have quicker returns from Archilles injuries, as the skating boot gives a lot of support so that there is less chance of a re-injury, and cuts down on the strain.
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21 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:
Columbus seems to give us fits. But I think the team shows up in force tonight. Benson, it's his time to shine tonight, hat trick plus 3 helpers for a 6 point onslaught.
Go Sabres!!!
Wrong Blue team.
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On 11/22/2023 at 5:21 PM, SABRES 0311 said:
I liked the Greenway Mitts Benson line. Seemed like a good mix of power, skill, and playmaking. At the very least I’d like to see more of Mitts and Benson.
I disagree here, while that line did play well together, I think the lineup is better served with Mitts and Benson on different lines. Both Mitts and Benson, while they do have goal-scoring ability, their passing and set up ability are their biggest threat. They are the closest the Sabres have to pure playmakers among the forwards. Thompson, Skinner, Cozens, Tuch, Quinn and Peterka all range somewhere between balanced (passing vs shooting), and more on the goal scoring side. I think their abilities would be better suited separate, to set up our various goal scorers.
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4 hours ago, TheAud said:
What is "Relative Expected Goals %"? Is it telling me that Dahlin is the Sabres 5th best defenseman? Because if it is, it's BS.
Expected goal percentage is the ratio between the expected goals for and against while a player is on the ice. Team relative expected goal percentage is standardizing that based on the team average.
expected goals for/against are calculated by taking past data on how likely shots of different types (slap shot, clean breakaway, wrister, etc.) from different areas of the ice are to be goals. So if there’s a 20% chance of a clean slot shot going in, a slot shot would give an expected goal of 0.2. Adding up the expected goals of each shot over the course of a game would give your expected goals.
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I don’t get how 3 players jumped him and not one roughing/instigating
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1 minute ago, shrader said:
What’s the corresponding roster move if Comrie is back in? Those lineup don’t indicate anyone being sent down. Krebs takes the Rousek spot and he’s sent down until Benson is returned to the WHL?
I’d assume Tage to IR.
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4 minutes ago, Thorny said:
So I was repelling down mount vesuvius and suddenly I start to fall, “AHHHHHHH! AHHHHHH!”
… and then I think, haven’t I been smoking peyote for 8 straight days? Couldn’t some of this be in my mind?”
And?
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18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
That's the problem though right. Half the cap on 5 guys is Toronto's problem. Their bottom end is garbage. We'd end up the same only in our case 2 D and 3 forwards rather than 4 forwards and 1 D. Same problem though. Unless you cap cheat like Tampa and Vegas did it's a formula that doesn't work.
The window provided by the ELCs will be short and unsustainable when we need it the most. I can see us having cap trouble right around the same time we might become a legit cup contender and that could derail the whole thing. Again, I'm thinking ahead.
Toronto didn’t have the prospect pool that the Sabres have. they have enough talent coming up to have three skilled scoring lines in the future. If one of the young players (Quinn or Peterka) breaks out to where you can’t afford him, do a Kevin Fiala style trade to reload the prospect pool and keep depth. And we may not even need to move one of them, with Skinner coming off the books shortly after they need their next contracts.
This would also be locking them up early with a rising cap. At the time of the Tavares signing, Matthews and Tavares accounted for 27% of the cap. With projections for next year, Mitts at 7 mil, Thompson and Cozens would be ~24% of the cap at the time of signing for 3 players which is significantly better.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
Now you're back to the original point. I simply think it is going to be difficult, if not impossible to have 3 top level centers and be cap compliant down the road. I'm thinking ahead. Mitts has elevated his play and may now want Cozens type money. If we give it to him, that's a lot of money for whichever player ends up being the 3C.
Shutdown works, and in a cap era, it's necessary. Partly yes, because it's cheaper.
It is difficult to have 3 top level centers, easier if you have 2 for 14 mil. If you can lock up Mitts at 7 mil, you do it IMO. It’s not as if any of them will be a typical 3C, they’re all going to be getting top 6 minutes, and it gives us a chance of having 3 effective scoring lines. We have plenty of young talented wingers in the system that won’t be breaking the bank for the next handful of years (Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Rosen, Kulich, Benson). And all 3 of Thompson, Cozens and Mitts can play wing.
Toronto has had Matthews and Tavares together at a more expensive rate than Thompson, Cozens and Mitts would be (if he signed the Cozens contract).-
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2 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:
Good point about contract and body limits.
If the Sabres decide to trade for McDavid in a non 'hockey trade' they are admitting that yet another rebuild has failed. It's most likely that the trade would be made by the next GM and not KA.
No, a non ‘hockey trade’ would mean the Sabres are trying to go for a cup, not rebuild. It would be moving futures for the best player in the league, instead of moving Dahlin and Tage for McDavid and Kane (which would be closer to the hockey trade)
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1 hour ago, bunomatic said:
STP
In my opinion, that’s not the main issue with the powerplay. The zone entries need a lot of work, they have been having a lot of trouble establishing possession in the Ozone. When we have gotten established, we often get good chances. Get better at entries at the shots will come.
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4 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Hockey players and coaches like to use nick names. Simple things like adding “ie” or “sie” or “s” or “y” to a part of their name. It a hockey cultural thing starting in youth hockey
Tuch - Tuchie
Cozens - Cuzzy
Dahlin - Dahls
Mittelstadt - Mittsie
Er is also a somewhat common addition
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6 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:
Disclaimer - Not here to pi$$ in everyone’s Cheerios. (That’s somebody else’s job). Happy with a win, and the effort. But I need to see wins against opponents not playing their backup goaltender. Five of six wins have some at the hands of a backup.
Tonight’s victory hardly counts as facing a backup. Toronto has pretty evenly split their net. Samsonov has played 6 to Woll’s 5, but the stats are in Woll’s favor by a great margin (low sample size I know).
Samsonov: 3.56 GAA .871 sv%
Woll: 1.89 GAA .942 sv % -
Gonna be at the game tonight, hoping for better play than last game, but a similar result.
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He’s UP now.
(He’s been giving other teams the Ls)-
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Tage with a 100.8 mph shot right there.
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1 hour ago, MattPie said:
Not sure I'd recognize it from the spelling; phonetically we always called it "gwum-kee".
Haha thanks for this. My Mom’s side is Polish, so I’ve had it quite a bit, was going to look it up to see if it was “Gwum-Kee” as I’ve never seen it spelled out.
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17 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Different era, different rules, different styles of play, every old record falls in the modern era. It means nothing.
I was not in any way trying to make an argument that Makar > Orr. I was just saying that Makar IS a superstar. Makar is currently 3rd on the all time Defenseman Career points per game list, whereas McDavid is 4th.
And the “every record falls in the modern era” is not close to the truth in Hockey. Last year, McDavid had the highest point total in the last 25 years, and still was 60 points away from the single season record. -
On 10/20/2023 at 5:27 PM, PerreaultForever said:
Hasek was a superstar. No question.
Perreault was arguably a superstar, but I could see an argument against that too.
That's it for Sabres.
Right now the league has one superstar in McDavid. Two fading old superstars in Crosby and Ovechkin and one possible future superstar in Bedard.
There's another tier of players that you can make an argument for and they are all stars, but clear cut superstars? Highly subjective and I'd say no as my criteria for the term is extremely high. Others would lower that bar and include them. Pettersson might be in that group.
Question, were the Sedins superstars? Is Matthews a superstar? For you.
I didn't mean win it all with that. But dominate games or change the course of them yes.
Makar is undoubtedly a superstar, just beat Bobby Ore’s record for being the fastest defenseman in NHL history to 250 points.
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He did miss a few games in the preseason due to “soreness”
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One thing that really impressed me last night was Mitts’ backchecking. I know that line got caught on the ice too long a couple times last night, but Mitts made some good plays hounding the puck in our own zone.
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That was some good puck movement by a lot of the lineup leading up to that.
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8 hours ago, ... said:
If it's a delayed penalty did the goal stand?
Goal stood, it was put in by an amerk so the play didn’t stop.
In December and your team is failing - Adams Do Something Substantive Already!
in The Aud Club
Posted
Such as?