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I can't find the link now but I think Elliot Friedman mentioned in his 32 thoughts a couple days ago that the number to keep Tuch in Buffalo is $11.5m per year.... And that is what he is considering a hometown discount.

You are actually right...downloaded the data from Moneypuck and there is a very strong correlation between save percentage dropping and high danger changes increasing. | Season | Save % | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | xG/Shot | High-Danger Shots/Game | Avg GSAx (per 60) | | :------- | :----: | :--------: | :--------: | :-----: | :--------------------: | :---------------: | | 2010-11 | 0.913 | 5.48 | 30.8 | 0.088 | 7.9 | +0.12 | | 2011-12 | 0.914 | 5.32 | 30.7 | 0.087 | 7.8 | +0.15 | | 2012-13 | 0.912 | 5.44 | 30.1 | 0.089 | 8.0 | +0.10 | | 2013-14 | 0.914 | 5.46 | 30.6 | 0.089 | 8.1 | +0.13 | | 2014-15 | 0.915 | 5.46 | 30.4 | 0.089 | 8.2 | +0.14 | | 2015-16 | 0.915 | 5.42 | 30.2 | 0.089 | 8.3 | +0.11 | | 2016-17 | 0.913 | 5.53 | 30.3 | 0.090 | 8.5 | +0.09 | | 2017-18 | 0.912 | 5.94 | 31.8 | 0.091 | 8.7 | +0.06 | | 2018-19 | 0.910 | 6.02 | 31.5 | 0.092 | 8.8 | +0.04 | | 2019-20 | 0.910 | 6.04 | 31.3 | 0.092 | 8.9 | +0.03 | | 2020-21 | 0.907 | 6.23 | 30.7 | 0.093 | 9.0 | +0.01 | | 2021-22 | 0.904 | 6.36 | 31.1 | 0.094 | 9.2 | +0.00 | | 2022-23 | 0.904 | 6.60 | 31.9 | 0.095 | 9.4 | –0.02 | | 2023-24 | 0.903 | 6.73 | 31.6 | 0.096 | 9.5 | –0.03 | | 2024-25* | 0.900 | 6.81 | 31.8 | 0.097 | 9.6 | –0.04 | The correlation is .91486 between Save Percentage and High Danger Shot %, meaning as high danger shots increase, save percentage drops. A perfect correlation is 1.0, so this is extremely strong.

I would have to agree. They are a better checking team and more willing to defend themselves. Depth is being tested, especially at center and on defense, and they are getting better Not sure the goaltending holds up, we still do not know Ellis at all. The power play is still a problem.

I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year. Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating.

That’s the percentage of points won, not games won. They got 54% of the points available with a game winning (5W-7L) percentage of .417. And as someone else said, it really doesn’t matter. They’re still not that great, but at least they are getting points this year. Baby steps.

58% of points (.580) is usually the accepted magic number to get you to the playoffs. Some years it might be a little less, some years a little bit more, but 58% is where you want to be. Play at that level the whole year until the last month. Then in the last month of the season if you need a little bit more you'll have to play better. But.. to see if this team is playing well or not, can they maintain that 58 number? And can they get to positive goal differential overall?.

Focusing on a .500 point percentage is meaningless, especially this early in the season. Every team in the Sabres division has at least .500 point percentage. Every team in the Sabres conference has at least .500 points percentage. Only 6 teams out of 32 are below .500 points percentage.

Truthfully? I see some good with Buffalo. They certainly are a better checking team and the defense doesn't make me want to gouge my soul out. Kesselring is as advertised which I love. Finally prospects don't have roster spots unless injuries occur. The PK deserves praise. Lyon and to an extent Ellis and potentially Luukkonen have been solid to really good.

Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect.

A few random comments about the game. Sabres are certainly tougher to play against this year. Dahlin may not be playing great but he is not hurting you on defense and you add that to all the rest of them it's pretty stout. If Power is your weak link I think any other team would wish for that top 6. Sabres still have a problem scoring on the a+ chances the generate. You have to think at least one night they will all go in. The Quinn, Kulich, Rosen line was good in the O zone but had trouble in the D zone. That was a tough test against Washington. Ovi is quickly becoming and anchor. He will get his goal but I expect the ice time is going to be less and less. UPL was fighting the puck in the first half of the game but did settle down. Even the first goal was bit of a mess when Byram moved the puck up the wall I think he hit the refs skate and it caused a turnover with everyone of of position. They were not able to overcome the scramble. The second goal Power cheated in the zone, No one covered the vacated point and Washington just sent the puck to open ice. Third was a hard bouncer. The Sabres have really got to focus on getting that 4th goal. It's hard to win with three anymore.

Pre-shot movement is the next analytics frontier. Idk how goalies will adapt.

Ehhh. Disagree. We’re missing those all world flourishes, for one. Seems that way. Great crowd last night, for sure. That’s not a “no” though, is it? 🤣

Truthfully, Benson's shooting is frustrating but I don't think the shot is as bad as advertised. He's not a sniper but he's gonna get 20 this season. Doesn't help that Thompson is the shooter on that line and they feed him looks.

I think this is at least partly correct. Also, as I stated up thread, this year is significantly better than last year, although a very small sample size.

Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion.

Sure, but that's one win less over 10 games which is 8 wins less over a season. I'd love to have more faith but after 14yrs, they gotta prove it. We'll see what the next 10 games holds.

Is the shooting percentage higher league wide? If the shooters were getting better it would show up there somehow.

I think making this personal like that, is lazy, low, and shows your true colors.

Is it just me or are crowds at home games alot bigger?

Ice cream is not milk. For the record, the taste of milk bothers me far more than where it comes from.

I posted this in another thread but this is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a number of years. I took the save percentage of .910 which used to be what you could expect out of almost any decent starting goalie. The number of goal tenders who have bested this number has declined drastically over a fairly short amount of time. Year ending number of goalies above .910 save percentage. AHL numbers 25 10 16 24 16 21 23 17 19 22 26 18 21 25 9 20 30 17 19 29 17 18 31 26 I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. So what is causing this. Are goaltenders worse? Are shooters better? Has the NHL asked the refs to change the way they call the game? I was just curious so I put in the AHL numbers. The 9 was the covid year so you can pretty much chuck that one. Going back a few more years in the AHL it was in the low 20's. I lean toward the shooters getting better causing this trend but not really certain about that would have to dig up some more stats.

Idk, Dahlin always kinda looks like this, it’s just slightly worse this season

lol - i see a robust “what is .500” debate ensued upthread. i look only at true .500 as a threshold for being good because, if you ain’t there, you need the stars to align to make the playoffs. plus, i won’t toe the line for gary bettman’s loser point parity project.

East looks wide open and fairly mediocre this season. Claw back to true .500 and go from there (5-7 currently). It’s probably been posted upthread (I was in the arena and didn’t post or follow), but Dahlin looks like a shell of himself.

What position of strength and abundance do we have on the roster to deal to recalibrate it? Usually, a reshaping deal is done in the offseason. In my view, the most impactful player transaction would be getting back Norris. And as you noted, I’m not confident in our current GM making such a deal, especially when he feels pressure to do so.